The setup is credible: real shipments, repeat customers, and partner-based scaling. Upside comes from converting performance into standardized, higher-margin offerings without losing manufacturing control.

Amprius can compound non-linearly by turning a proven performance lead in drone/aviation cells into repeatable partner-scale production, then layering higher-margin licensing/telemetry and “trusted supply” SKUs that raise switching costs in mission-critical fleets.

Drones/robotics/defense autonomy pull forward demand for energy-per-weight; Amprius’ edge is outcomes (range/payload), plus a capex-light partner model that fits time-to-scale compression.

AMPX is no longer a pure lab story: it is shipping at meaningful scale, winning branded design-ins (e.g., Nokia Drone Networks) and expanding its allied-nation contract manufacturing footprint. The non-linear upside comes from (1) scaling volume without building a full gigafactory, (2) premium pricing in weight-sensitive missions, and (3) adding higher-margin software/licensing and “trusted supply” features that raise switching costs. The multiple is capped by battery commoditization risk, customer concentration, and dilution needed to fund working capital and qualification cycles.

The core risk stack is partner-scale quality/yield control, timing volatility in drone/aviation programs, and financing/dilution. If performance differentiation narrows, AMPX can become a price-taker even while volumes grow.

Non-material: new leadership and CES recognition strengthen the commercialization narrative; core thesis unchanged.

$14.57