A durable choke-point business with clear AI-driven demand support, but most upside depends on cycle duration and higher recurring mix. Export controls and customer concentration remain the key swing factors.

ASML remains the main physical choke-point for scaling leading-edge compute; if High-NA EUV ramps and ASML shifts mix toward outcome-based software/service (yield, uptime, energy) and advanced-packaging adjacencies, revenue compounds while cyclicality softens—supporting a durable premium valuation despite export-control drag.

Compute growth drives more patterning intensity per chip; ASML’s EUV/High-NA position makes it a core enabler of the AI/robotics buildout, with upside from software/service layers.

ASML is already priced as a scarcity asset, so the 5-year upside is less about discovering relevance and more about (1) extending the AI-driven wafer-fab upcycle into memory (HBM/advanced DRAM) and (2) making revenues feel more recurring via software, fleet analytics, and contract-like service outcomes (uptime/energy/yield). High-NA EUV and advanced packaging add a second growth slope, but the stock’s starting valuation and geopolitics (China licenses, remote service constraints) cap the probability of a major rerate. Net: a premium compounder that can still outperform if mix quality improves and the cycle lasts longer than investors assume.

The main risks are (1) geopolitical/export-control escalation that reduces China demand or constrains service, (2) High-NA and memory EUV adoption timing (customers can push capex if yields/throughput improve), and (3) concentration in a handful of buyers and critical suppliers. Even with intact long-run demand, short demand air-pockets can compress the multiple from today’s elevated level.

$1240.00