A mature interchain stack is adding the missing piece: protocol-enforced value capture. The upside depends on turning routing defaults and new on-chain apps into auditable fee flows.

ATOM is a distressed option on the Hub becoming a default interchain router + app platform: if Eureka routing becomes a paid service and the Hub successfully hosts fee-generating apps (CosmWasm + Token Factory), ATOM can re-rate from diluted staking beta to visible infrastructure cashflows.

Interop is a core Last Economy primitive (coordination + distribution). Cosmos has real technical leadership (IBC/Eureka), but ATOM’s upside depends on converting that distribution into enforced fee capture, not just ecosystem mindshare.

Today ATOM is priced like the Hub will never monetize its distribution. The non-linear upside is not “Cosmos beats Ethereum/Solana on one-chain usage”; it’s the Hub becoming a paid routing/proving default (Eureka) while simultaneously allowing permissionless app deployment (CosmWasm) and native token issuance (Token Factory) that keeps more fees on the Hub. If those two loops land, revenue becomes legible (routing + execution), and ATOM can re-rate closer to other infra cashflow assets. The downside is simple: interop stays commoditized and the Hub remains a low-fee chain funded by dilution.

The central risk is structural value capture: Cosmos can grow as a stack while ATOM fails to become the enforced toll asset. Execution risk is delivering and maintaining (1) routing monetization without being routed around and (2) credible-neutral on-Hub applications without political capture or smart-contract blowups. Emissions and governance churn can cap any re-rate.

Thesis is directionally intact but more implementation-driven: recent governance wins improve the path to Hub fee capture, yet interop monetization is still not protocol-enforced at scale.

Upside is moderated versus the prior run because routing monetization remains unproven and dilution/competition risks remain high despite product progress.

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