Security and ecosystem gravity remain strong, but the investment case hinges on whether the base layer re-captures economics from the modular stack.

ETH is a leveraged claim on credible-neutral programmable settlement: if scaling upgrades keep landing and Ethereum re-captures a meaningful share of ecosystem + ordering economics (not just L2 UX), today’s low-ish L1 value-capture can compound into a durable 2031 re-rate.

As cognition commoditizes, neutral settlement + coordination layers gain value; Ethereum’s liquidity, standards, and upgrade engine are structural advantages.

The non-linear upside case is less “more users on L1” and more “Ethereum becomes the coordination + security + data layer for a multi-chain execution world.” Fusaka/Pectra-era upgrades and ecosystem standards can make “being on Ethereum” synonymous with instant liquidity reach, safer wallets, and institution-friendly rails. If stablecoins, tokenized assets, and agentic commerce keep migrating to public settlement, the fee + ordering value pool can grow by an order of magnitude—and Ethereum is still the best-positioned default for regulated and high-trust flows.

The central risk is economic value accrual: Ethereum can dominate settlement while L2s, wallets, and private execution capture the durable cash flows. Secondary risks: staking/operator and block-building concentration, censorship/compliance shocks, and competitive UX/fee pressure from monolithic L1s.

Thesis is broadly intact; recent upgrades reduce the “can’t scale safely” objection, shifting focus even more to monetization and coordination.

$6000.00