A credible 2026 launch and manufacturing ramp could justify a durable premium versus industrial peers, but the path is financing- and safety-optics-sensitive.

Joby’s non-linear upside is a certification-to-scale inflection: once it proves repeatable FAA-approved operations, it can compound through manufacturing rate, airport/partner distribution (Blade/Uber/airlines), and software-led reliability—turning a single aircraft into a multi-city regulated network with hard-to-copy operating data and trust.

AAM is “robots + energy + trust”: Joby can win by operational reliability, verification, and partner distribution as cognition commoditizes; constraint is heavy physical scaling.

The market already prices Joby as a category leader, so most equity upside comes from de-risking two things: (1) certification and safe, repeatable early service, and (2) evidence of manufacturing throughput with acceptable quality and cost. Recent signals (Blade integration, infrastructure partnerships, and manufacturing capacity expansion plans) improve the odds of a credible city-by-city rollout. By 2031, if Joby is seen as the “operating playbook + supply” winner (not just an airframe), it can sustain a growth premium versus traditional aerospace, but capital intensity keeps the premium bounded.

The stacked risk is sequencing: certification timing and safety optics first, then manufacturing quality at rate, then route-level utilization and cost per trip. If any layer slips, Joby likely funds the gap with equity, and per-share outcomes lag even if the technology ultimately works.

$12.50