The setup is steady compounding, not a moonshot: demand is here, but value depends on financing and build throughput. Upside comes from converting reliability and interconnection scarcity into higher-quality contracted cash flows.

NextEra remains a premium-growth utility because AI/data-center load makes interconnection speed, firm power and grid reliability scarce products; NEE can compound by converting that scarcity into regulated rate base (Florida) plus contracted renewables/storage/transmission cash flows, with option value from “firm clean power” SLAs and interregional transmission.

Compute growth is bottlenecked by electricity, transmission and permitting; NEE is positioned where scarcity is monetized via regulation and long-dated contracts.

NEE’s premium is rooted in (1) visible regulated growth at FPL with a constructive multi-year rate framework, and (2) NEER’s repeatable “originate-finance-build-operate” machine that can turn AI-led load growth into long-duration contracted assets. Versus regulated peers (e.g., DUK/SO/AEP), NEE already trades at a clear premium; the 5-year upside is mainly steady compounding plus selective multiple support if rates normalize and data-center/firming products become a standardized SKU.

NEE’s upside is constrained less by demand than by build/finance capacity: (1) rates and capital-market access, (2) permitting/interconnection and long-lead equipment, (3) regulatory/political reactions to who pays for big-tech load and resilience, and (4) complexity risk if NEE moves from PPAs to “SLA-like” products that resemble insuring grid performance.

$92.23