The upside case is a transition from “pre-revenue nuclear story” to a repeatable, financeable build template serving premium firm-power buyers. The risk is that delays and dilution force a re-rate to a capital-heavy developer profile.

Oklo’s non-linear upside is converting AI/defense “must-have” firm power demand into bankable contracts, then repeating a licensed reactor template fast enough to be valued as a scarce clean baseload platform (not a one-off project) by 2031—despite dilution and high regulatory/capex friction.

Compute growth is increasingly bottlenecked by firm power; nuclear is one of few scalable 24/7 clean options, making Oklo a leveraged “power-for-compute” bet if it executes.

Oklo is priced as long-dated optionality, but it also has unusually strong “survival + iteration” capacity for a pre-revenue nuclear developer (large liquidity plus an expanded ATM program). If it uses that runway to (1) lock down repeatable siting/interconnection, (2) convert a meaningful portion of its pipeline into truly financeable, credit-backed contracts, and (3) keep licensing artifacts reusable across sites, the market can continue valuing it as a growth platform rather than a utility—supporting a roughly doubling of enterprise value into 2031.

Oklo’s value is dominated by timeline and financing: (1) licensing pace, (2) FOAK cost/schedule/upramp, and (3) securing non-dilutive project capital with bankable contracts. Even with strong demand, any mismatch between data-center build timing and reactor COD timing can strand pipeline value and compress the equity multiple.

Slightly more confidence in financing flexibility (ATM + liquidity) and fuel-line progress, partially offset by dilution/insider-overhang signals.

$102.87