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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in QUBT.

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QUBT

Analysis as of: 2026-01-06

Quantum Computing Inc.

QCi develops room-temperature quantum/quantum-photonic systems and operates a U.S. thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) photonic chip foundry.

ai cybersecurity networking quantum semiconductors

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Summary

Cash-funded photonics platform seeks repeatable shipments

A well-capitalized, vertically integrated photonics player is trying to convert demos into qualified, repeat orders. Upside hinges on manufacturing repeatability and attaching recurring security deployments.

Analysis

Thesis

QCi’s edge is not “better qubits,” it’s domestic photonics manufacturing + security packaging: if it turns its TFLN foundry into qualified, repeatable shipments and integrates Luminar Semiconductor into a scaled components platform, it can earn a durable role in AI interconnect and high-assurance comms by 2031.

Last Economy Alignment

Aligned to compute/energy efficiency (datacenter optics) and security inversion (quantum-safe/auth hardware); upside depends on earning trust via reliable manufacturing and SLAs.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied 5-Year Multiple

6.3x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

QCi’s plausible path is to become a small strategic photonics supplier (not a general-purpose quantum winner): monetize AI datacenter optics via a qualified foundry + components stack, and attach recurring security deployments where verification and resilience matter. The balance sheet buys time-to-scale; the multiple depends on proving repeatability (specs, lead times, reliability) and converting pilots into contracts.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The core risk is manufacturing credibility (yield, reliability, cycle-time) and whether optics/security pilots turn into repeatable commercial contracts. Secondary risks: (1) LSI acquisition not closing or integrating cleanly, (2) competition from established photonics supply chains, (3) “good enough” alternatives (e.g., classical upgrades) slowing quantum-security spend, and (4) continued equity issuance or cash burn lowering EV support.

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Trends

Key Changes

Jan 6–9, 2026: CES 2026 begins; QCi scheduled for CES Foundry demos Jan 7–8.
LSI acquisition remains pending bankruptcy court/auction outcome; targeted timeline end of Jan 2026.
No new financial statements since the Sep 30, 2025 quarter filing; narrative catalysts dominating.

Thesis update

Incremental thesis upgrade: LSI adds a nearer-term components/customer base path versus purely organic foundry ramp.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$17.00

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