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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in RDVT.

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RDVT

Analysis as of: 2026-01-06

Red Violet, Inc.

Red Violet provides identity intelligence and analytics (IDI and FOREWARN) used for fraud/risk mitigation, investigations, and safety workflows.

ai cybersecurity enterprise software

On Yahoo Finance ...

Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Identity intelligence scales as fraud automation rises

A high-margin, capital-light identity graph business with credible paths to expand from investigations into always-on trust APIs. Upside depends on sustaining ~20% growth while managing data-policy and bundling risks.

Analysis

Thesis

AI makes fraud, account takeovers, and synthetic abuse cheaper; buyers respond by shifting spend to real-time, auditable identity decisions. Red Violet can compound its identity graph into embedded trust APIs (marketplaces, AML/KYC, call-centers) and agentic investigation tooling while staying capital-light, using cash generation and buybacks to amplify per-share value into 2031.

Last Economy Alignment

Rising AI-driven scams make trust/verification mandatory spend; RDVT’s identity graph + workflow embedding can monetize accuracy, latency, and auditability.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied 5-Year Multiple

2.3x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

RDVT is already shipping at scale with strong gross margins, growing users/customers, and producing meaningful cash flow while remaining asset-light. In a world where fraud scales with AI, identity intelligence shifts from “lookup” to “always-on decisioning,” which supports higher-frequency usage, deeper workflow embedding, and better retention. I assume modest multiple compression from today’s premium valuation, partially offset by sustained growth and continued buybacks.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The key swing factors are (1) privacy/permissible-use regulation and data-rights litigation, (2) supplier bargaining power on licensed data costs, and (3) bundling by larger bureaus/fraud suites that can reframe RDVT as a commodity. With a premium valuation and thin liquidity, even a modest growth deceleration could cause outsized multiple compression.

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Trends

Key Changes

No material company news or filings observed in the past 7–10 days; news flow remains quiet post-Q3 results.
Shares trading in the low-to-mid $50s with thin liquidity; volatility remains elevated vs large-cap peers.
Market calendars indicate the next earnings update is expected in late February 2026 (Q4/FY2025 read-through).

Forecast update

Higher implied upside driven by (i) sustained growth/FCF evidence through Q3 2025 and (ii) a lower starting EV versus the prior snapshot, despite assuming mild multiple compression by 2031.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$69.87

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