The setup is attractive: vertical integration plus rising national-security demand can create a step-change in scale. The outcome is gated by medium-lift execution and whether margins survive fixed-price production at volume.

If Neutron enters reliable service and Space Systems converts recent SDA prime wins into a repeatable constellation-production engine, Rocket Lab can compound revenue >10x by 2031; equity upside is mainly execution-to-scale (not hype), with valuation likely normalizing from today’s extreme EV/Revenue.

Geopolitics + security drive durable demand for rapid launch and proliferated LEO constellations; Rocket Lab’s vertically integrated “mission stack” benefits, but it remains capital-heavy and lacks a true software/network moat.

Rocket Lab’s non-linear setup is the pivot from “launch provider” to “defense space prime + production” while keeping Electron as the cashflowing cadence anchor. The $816M Tracking Layer award materially increases credibility with national-security buyers, and the acquisition-led payload stack expands wallet share per satellite. The main gating item is Neutron: even a modest cadence unlocks larger payload classes and changes the company’s revenue ceiling. The bull case is not just more launches; it is a repeatable factory + supply chain that ships satellites on a schedule that legacy primes struggle to match.

The core risk is an execution/valuation trap: Neutron timing and early reliability, plus satellite fixed-price margins, must stay on plan while the equity already discounts a large 2027–2031 business. Secondary risks are program concentration, procurement/budget timing, and capital needs if schedule slips or integration slows throughput.

$68.75