A real-time sensing business with meaningful contracted demand, but still priced like a micro-cap contractor. Upside depends on converting backlog into recurring products while restoring reporting confidence.

With maritime divested and debt removed, Spire can convert a $200M+ contracted backlog into higher-trust, higher-SLA weather and RF intelligence subscriptions—if it fixes reporting/governance and proves break-even ops—earning a durable “space data utility” multiple by 2031.

Spire sells scarce, non-synthetic inputs (persistent sensing) into a world where cognition is cheap: verification, low-latency data, and geopolitics-driven RF awareness rise in value as AI agents automate decisions.

The upside is mainly a mix shift: fewer low-value customers, more defense/security RF workflows, and weather programs that embed into operational systems. The non-linear unlock is turning raw satellite data into “verified decision inputs” (provenance, auditability, and SLAs) so customers pay for trust and uptime, not just pixels/profiles. The limiter is that this is still an operations-and-capex business with government timing risk; so even in the good case, the company likely earns a mid-range peer multiple rather than a software premium.

The biggest risks are (1) governance/reporting credibility and listing compliance, (2) contract timing and conversion of backlog into recurring revenue, and (3) the operational reality that a trusted space-data utility must deliver near-perfect uptime while funding constellation refresh without returning to dilution.

$12.10