The setup is attractive if near-term optimization converts into repeatable enterprise products and recurring contracts. The risk is that distribution shifts to classical incumbents before quantum becomes a budget line item.

QBTS can compound if it turns “quantum value today” into repeatable enterprise optimization products (workflow-embedded + outcome-priced) while using its cash and Quantum Circuits acquisition to credibly expand beyond annealing into gate-model roadmaps—shifting from lumpy system sales to higher-trust, recurring software+capacity revenue.

Positive alignment: the Last Economy rewards better prediction/optimization, workflow-embedded automation, and trusted compute services. D-Wave’s challenge is converting quantum novelty into boring, auditable outcomes before incumbents (ERP, cloud, classical optimizers) bundle the UX and own distribution.

The realistic upside is less “more qubits” and more productization + distribution: standard connectors into enterprise workflows, repeatable templates in a marketplace, and outcome-based contracts that turn pilots into multi-year commitments. If D-Wave sustains credibility on both near-term optimization and a plausible gate-model roadmap, it can keep a premium growth multiple into 2031—but the ceiling is limited by competition and the need to prove scalable, repeatable deployments.

The dominant risk is mismatch between valuation expectations and enterprise reality: if deployments remain bespoke and quantum adds only marginal advantage, revenue scales slowly while the multiple compresses. Second-order risks: customer concentration, competitive substitution by classical platforms with better distribution, and execution/integration risk from the Quantum Circuits pivot.

Thesis strengthened modestly: Quantum Circuits adds a clearer path to broaden workloads beyond optimization, but execution/integration risk also rises.

Small uplift from increased gate-model optionality and near-term catalysts; otherwise unchanged.

$33.67