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Disclosure: The author does not hold a position in SPIR.

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SPIR

Analysis as of: 2026-01-14

Spire Global, Inc.

Spire operates a LEO satellite constellation and sells RF-derived data, analytics, and Space Services to government and commercial customers.

aerospace defense software space

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Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

From raw signals to trusted operational decisions

The upside case is a contract-backed ramp plus selective moves up the stack into security and decision-grade weather. The risk is that governance and cash discipline keep the multiple anchored.

Analysis

Thesis

Spire’s non-linear upside is turning “space signals” into trusted, low-latency operational decisions (weather + RF security), converting $200M+ contracted obligations into recurring products while using partner-funded capacity to limit dilution and capex drag by 2031.

Last Economy Alignment

Sits on scarce real-world sensors + data rights; value rises as AI makes prediction, verification, and resilience (PNT/GNSS trust) more important than human analysis.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied 5-Year Multiple

4.5x (from 4 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

We underwrite a “contracted-to-recurring conversion” story: near-term growth is driven by recognized backlog/RPO and NOAA-style renewals; the step-change comes if Spire productizes RF assurance and moves weather from raw observations into decision workflows with measurable skill/latency SLAs. The multiple stays modest because satellites + compliance create real operating leverage, but not software-like margins, and governance credibility must be rebuilt.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The central risk is credibility + timing: if reporting controls, renewal visibility, and cash discipline don’t improve, Spire’s contract-driven growth won’t translate into a durable multiple and the business may revert to dilution-funded operations.

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Trends

Key Changes

January 12, 2026: Spire announced the successful launch of nine satellites (including a HyMS weather demonstrator) on SpaceX’s Twilight mission.
Recent focus remains on converting contracted obligations into 2026 revenue and executing toward break-even targets discussed in the latest quarterly update.

Thesis update

More emphasis on execution credibility: filing/internal-control issues now explicitly weigh on the speed of any multiple expansion.

Forecast update

The valuation framework now assumes a more conservative re-rate until reporting controls and profitability targets are demonstrated.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$12.10

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