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Disclosure: The author holds a long position in TEM.

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TEM

Analysis as of: 2026-01-13

Tempus AI, Inc.

Tempus provides AI-enabled molecular diagnostics plus clinical and life-sciences data/software products to advance precision medicine.

ai biotech enterprise healthcare software

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Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Data flywheel scaling, but multiple sensitivity remains

Strong recent growth and expanding life-sciences contracting support a durable data-driven model, but returns hinge on converting scale into recurring economics. The setup is attractive if revenue mix shifts while valuation normalizes rather than collapses.

Analysis

Thesis

Tempus can compound a regulated diagnostics→multimodal data→model→workflow loop: diagnostics keeps expanding the dataset, while Data/Applications and enterprise workflow products monetize it repeatedly, supporting multi-year revenue growth even if valuation multiples compress as it matures.

Last Economy Alignment

Cognition gets cheaper; trusted longitudinal clinical data + embedded workflow rails get scarcer. Tempus’ moat is governed data + distribution, not pure models.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied 5-Year Multiple

2.5x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

Tempus is already scaling fast, but the real non-linear upside is mix and repetition: the same clinical activity feeds a proprietary data asset that can be resold as software, models, cohorts, and workflow tools. If Tempus turns more of its life-sciences relationships into multi-year, renewal-like revenue and keeps diagnostics growing as the data-creation engine, it can expand revenue meaningfully while the market normalizes its valuation multiple from today’s premium level.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The main risk is a narrative/physics mismatch: if Tempus can’t convert lab scale into durable, renewal-like data/software economics (and credible margin expansion), the market will value it like a diagnostics services roll-up. That outcome is amplified by reimbursement/policy shifts, slower enterprise adoption cycles, and dilution/convert overhang.

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Trends

Key Changes

2026-01-11: Prelim FY2025 revenue disclosed at ~$1.27B with Diagnostics ~$955M and Data/Apps ~$316M.
2026-01-11: Disclosed record Total Contract Value >$1.1B and ~126% net revenue retention (2025 prelim).
2026-01-06 to 2026-01-12: JPM Healthcare Conference presentation (updated investor deck/webcast referenced by company).

Thesis update

n/a (fundamentals look reinforced by the FY2025 preannouncement and contract value update).

Forecast update

n/a (no material change versus prior framing; modest re-anchoring to updated FY2025 scale).

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$80.42

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