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Disclosure: The author does not hold a position in CORZ.

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CORZ

Analysis as of: 2026-05-07

Core Scientific, Inc.

Core Scientific operates U.S. powered data center campuses that provide high-density colocation for AI workloads, hosted mining services, and bitcoin self-mining.

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Summary

Scarce Power Assets, But Delivery Still Decides

This is a real scarcity story, not a software story. The upside comes from turning controlled power into long-duration AI rent streams, but the market will only pay up if delivery, financing, and customer diversification keep improving.

Analysis

Thesis

Core Scientific can roughly 2.5x enterprise value by 2031 if it turns mining-era power control into repeatable AI colocation: fully bill the 590 MW CoreWeave ramp, lease up new power at Pecos, Muskogee, and Hunt County, and use contract-backed financing to convert scarce time-to-power into durable infrastructure revenue.

Last Economy Alignment

It owns a real AI bottleneck: powered campuses and contracted capacity. That benefits as compute demand rises, but limited software control and heavy capital needs cap value capture.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied 5-Year Multiple

2.3x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

I assign a mid-tier AI infrastructure multiple, not a hyperscale premium. Contracted capacity, annual escalators, and real site scarcity justify a better valuation than a miner, but concentration, financing drag, and unresolved control issues should keep the stock below cleaner data-center platforms.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The main risk is still delivery, not demand. Core Scientific must convert announced and contracted power into billable MW quickly enough to outrun debt drag, customer concentration, and self-build competition. If the company hits the 2026-2027 campus milestones and signs non-CoreWeave customers, the asset base can rerate meaningfully; if not, equity upside can be absorbed by capex, financing, and multiple compression.

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Trends

Key Changes

May 6, 2026: Q1 2026 results showed colocation revenue of 77.5 and billing reached 243 MW, making the mix shift toward AI infrastructure much more visible.
May 6, 2026: management reiterated billable customer power capacity should exceed 450 MW by end-summer 2026, keeping the near-term proof point intact.
May 6, 2026: the 3.3 billion senior secured notes closed, repaid the 1.0 billion term loan, and funded a much larger 2026 build plan.
May 6, 2026: Muskogee expansion was outlined to roughly 1.5 GW gross power, with Polaris expected to close in Q3 2026.
April 27, 2026 to May 6, 2026: Pecos and Muskogee announcements expanded the visible power pipeline to 4.5 GW, increasing option value beyond the current anchor contract.
May 6, 2026: the Q1 10-Q said the material weakness remained unremediated, which tempers governance confidence despite better operating momentum.

Thesis update

The core thesis is unchanged: monetizing scarce power through AI colocation matters more than mining. What improved is the concreteness of the financing and campus expansion path.

Forecast update

Better funding visibility and a larger announced power pipeline modestly improved confidence in multi-campus revenue conversion, partly offset by the still-open control issue.

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Last Economy Structure

AI Industrial Score

0.51

It controls powered sites that AI customers need now, and every successful campus delivery makes the next financing and lease easier. The risk is that bigger customers build their own campuses or delays turn a valuable bottleneck into an expensive landlord business.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$25.43

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