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RXRX

Analysis as of: 2026-08-14

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Recursion is a clinical-stage biotech company using an in-house AI-native biology, chemistry, and clinical development platform to build internal drug candidates and discovery partnerships.

ai automation biotech healthcare software

On Yahoo Finance ...

Jump to: Summary • Analysis • Opportunity • Risk • Trends • LE Structure • Third Party Analyst Consensus

Summary

Clinical proof is the rerating switch

This is a cash-backed option on turning proprietary biology data and automated experiments into real drug economics. The opportunity is meaningful, but the next durable rerating still depends on one lead asset and a second human proof point.

Analysis

Thesis

Recursion is a cash-backed option on turning proprietary wet-lab data, automated experiments, and partner-validated discovery into a repeatable drug engine; if REC-4881 gains a credible approval-oriented path and one more internal asset reaches clean human proof, value capture can shift from lumpy collaborations toward a higher-quality mix of product, milestone, and royalty revenue by 2031.

Last Economy Alignment

Cheaper cognition helps Recursion because it owns the scarce layer: proprietary data, automated labs, and downstream asset rights. Its revenue is not seat-priced software, so agent bypass risk is low; the real bottleneck is clinical and regulatory proof.

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Opportunity Outlook

Average Implied 5-Year Multiple

4.2x (from 5 most recent analyses)

Reasoning

The upside is mainly a proof-and-rerating story, not a heroic blockbuster call. If Recursion converts one internal program into a credible commercial path, keeps pulling partner milestones forward, and standardizes more external work into higher-value recurring offerings, investors can value it more like a de-risked product engine than a cash-burning discovery tool.

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Risk Assessment

Overall Risk Summary

The central risk is not whether Recursion can generate hypotheses faster; it is whether that speed converts into repeatable patient-relevant outcomes before capital and partner leverage shift against it. REC-4881 path clarity is the dominant gate, a second internal human proof point is the next one, and both matter more than incremental model improvements.

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Trends

Key Changes

Second-quarter 2026 results and the June 30, 2026 10-Q reset the near-term baseline: cash remains meaningful at 545.7 and annualized revenue remains modest, so the stock is still trading on future proof rather than current scale.
The Genentech collaboration appears to have moved its first neuroscience target into a joint early discovery program, which is a modest but useful external validation of Recursion's maps-to-target workflow.
Management tightened 2026 cash operating expense guidance to below 375, which slightly improves runway quality and lowers the odds that financing becomes the immediate bottleneck before key 2H26 catalysts.

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Last Economy Structure

AI Industrial Score

0.58

They own the data, labs, and computing loop that can make each experiment teach the next one, so cheaper AI should improve their discovery engine. The catch is that none of that matters unless partners and regulators see real patient results, which keeps clinical proof as the main choke point.

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Third Party Analyst Consensus

12-Month Price Target

$7.25

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