A mature smart-contract network with cheaper app-specific L1 deployment post-Etna, but still limited direct fee burn today. Upside depends on turning payments and tokenized-asset pilots into recurring, defensible settlement revenue that accrues to the base asset.

AVAX is a convex “regulated throughput + appchain” bet: if stablecoin settlement, tokenized collateral, and app-specific L1 adoption compound post-Etna, AVAX can re-rate from option value to monetized security/settlement and reach a ~7x FDV by 2031 despite fierce L1 competition.

AI agents and tokenized dollars expand transaction flows; Avalanche’s configurable L1 model is well-suited to compliance-heavy, high-throughput settlement—if it can convert pilots into recurring fee demand.

AVAX is priced like an option on future settlement share, because today’s direct fee-burn is modest post-fee reductions. The upside case is a “conversion” story: Avalanche L1 economics reduce the friction to launch performance- or compliance-specific chains; cross-L1 UX/liquidity standards make the ecosystem feel like one network; and stablecoin + tokenized collateral rails create repeatable, non-hype throughput. If those flows arrive, AVAX’s value capture can shift from mostly inflation-funded staking yield toward a mix of security subscriptions, interop fees, and higher aggregate burn—supporting a re-rate into a mid-cycle infrastructure multiple. The implied 7.0x FDV multiple equals an implied 7.0x price multiple under the max-supply FDV basis used here.

The core risk is monetization: Avalanche can win on UX and app-specific L1 deployments yet fail to route durable value back to AVAX (fee burn stays low; app tokens capture economics; liquidity remains elsewhere). Secondary risks are interop/bridge security, competitive compression from Ethereum L2s/Solana, and policy shocks that slow stablecoin and tokenized-asset adoption.

Thesis largely unchanged; it is now more explicitly about converting cheaper L1 launches into repeatable regulated settlement flows that pay for security.

Higher confidence that post-Etna L1 economics can increase adoption, and clearer visibility into the Dec 2030 vest completion reduces long-term overhang.

$60.00