The upside case is a durable mix-shift toward recurring, infrastructure-like revenues (derivatives, stablecoin payments, security). The key swing factor is U.S. policy and whether new products scale without compressing economics.

Coinbase can de-cycle from retail trading into a regulated onchain “universal bank” by scaling derivatives, stablecoin-powered payments, and trust/security products; in an AI-driven world where cognition is cheap, verification + distribution become the monetizable moat.

AI makes “thinking” cheap; Coinbase sells trust, compliance, distribution, and security primitives for money moving onchain (incl. agents), which should compound.

The path to durable upside is mix-shift: more recurring and infrastructure-like revenue (stablecoin services, custody/prime, derivatives, data, security bundles) and more distribution-driven onchain monetization (Base + developer tooling) so the market underwrites Coinbase closer to market-structure software than a cyclical broker. Recent product expansion (notably prediction markets via The Clearing Company deal) increases engagement frequency and reduces reliance on crypto-only catalysts. Benchmarks highlight the prize: mature exchange operators command premium valuation when revenue is recurring and regulated; Coinbase’s job is to earn that “infrastructure” multiple while keeping growth.

The dominant risk is policy: what is permitted (and profitable) in stablecoin rewards, listings, and new markets (event contracts/equities). Second is structural fee compression as crypto access gets embedded in brokers and apps. Third is cycle risk: a multi-year risk-off tape can reduce volumes, slow adoption of new products, and force defensive cost/capital choices right when execution matters most.

Upside is more anchored to execution and integration (new verticals + acquisitions) than pure multiple expansion from here.

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