The upside case depends on keeping capital markets access open so BTC-per-share can keep compounding. The key downside is premium compression from ETFs, index-rule shifts, and refinancing constraints.

If bitcoin continues monetizing as a reserve/collateral asset, Strategy can compound BTC-per-share via its multi-instrument capital markets “shelf”; the enterprise software business plus new treasury tooling can help sustain a modest premium vs. spot-BTC wrappers, keeping the flywheel open through 2031.

Strong fit to digital-asset financialization + attention flywheels; value is mostly distribution/trust + capital formation rather than human cognition. Main downside is regime sensitivity to policy/index rules and BTC risk appetite.

Strategy’s equity value is dominated by (1) the quantity of BTC it can hold per share and (2) whether the market grants it a sustained premium vs. “plain” BTC access (ETFs) because it offers a repeatable, transparent capital formation engine (common + converts + preferred) and a credible operating company underneath. If BTC keeps appreciating and Strategy keeps accessing capital without destroying BTC-per-share, the equity can compound non-linearly. Software is a stabilizer and a call option that can help defend the premium, not the primary driver.

The core risk is a multi-year regime where BTC is flat/down and the stock trades near or below NAV, shutting the accretive issuance loop while fixed charges and convert refinancing needs remain. A secondary but meaningful risk is index-rule/policy changes that reduce passive ownership support or constrain the optics/economics of dilution-funded BTC accumulation.

Slightly more emphasis on index-rule risk as a driver of marginal demand and premium durability; core thesis unchanged.

Premium durability assumptions were tightened given index-rule uncertainty and a more realistic path for sustained above-NAV trading.

$489.62