A mature scaling network is trying to re-rate into a routing/security fabric. Upside hinges on turning interoperability and payments traction into explicit, defensible protocol fees.

POL’s non-linear upside is shifting from “cheap L2 gas” to paid coordination: if AggLayer makes cross-chain UX feel single-chain and Polygon productizes payments + security services, POL can capture fees from routing, intents, and bonded guarantees (not just per-tx gas), supporting a meaningful re-rate by 2031 despite L2 fee compression.

As cognition gets cheap, value concentrates in trust, routing, and settlement. Polygon is aimed at payments-scale settlement plus cross-chain coordination (AggLayer), which are structurally useful in an agentic, high-frequency onchain economy.

POL is priced like a mature scaling token while Polygon is actively trying to become a coordination layer (AggLayer) plus a payments/RWA settlement venue. If Polygon can (1) keep stablecoin payments throughput growing on PoS, (2) make AggLayer a real routing default (not a niche bridge), and (3) attach explicit fee splits to POL-staked security/services, then protocol value capture can grow faster than gas fees alone. With modest market share gains and a credible fee model, an 8.3x network value outcome is plausible; due to POL’s ~2% annual emissions, that corresponds to a ~7.5x price outcome (not 8.3x).

The central risk is value accrual: Polygon may succeed operationally (payments throughput, many connected chains) while POL fails to capture durable, explicit cashflows due to fee competition, fragmented routing defaults, and ongoing emissions. The second risk is systemic: cross-chain aggregation, intents/solvers, and bridge security concentrate technical and reputational blast radius. Finally, leaning into payments/RWAs raises the probability of policy shocks that change economics (compliance costs, restricted flows, partner conservatism).

No material change: the core bet remains AggLayer turning Polygon from a single chain into a coordination layer that can charge for routing/security.

More weight is placed on explicit tokenomics (ongoing emissions) and the need for non-gas fee surfaces; this refines the upside to outcomes with clear fee capture.

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