A capital-light identity data compounder with clear pull from rising fraud automation. Upside depends on product expansion without margin erosion from data costs or bundling pressure.

RDVT can compound by turning its U.S. identity graph into real-time “trust decisions” for an AI-fraud world (synthetic onboarding, deepfake/social-engineering, agent abuse), expanding from lookup workflows into always-on scoring + investigation copilots, while staying capital-light; modest multiple compression still supports 2–3x EV upside by 2031.

Security inversion (AI offense) makes identity + fraud decisions higher-frequency and more valuable; RDVT’s differentiated data + workflow embedding are the moat, not human cognition.

RDVT is already operating at scale with strong cash generation and an asset-light model, which matters as buyers shift from periodic identity checks to continuous “trust decisions” (onboarding, account recovery, call-center, marketplace abuse). The non-linear upside comes from higher query frequency per customer, deeper workflow embedding (APIs + case management), and new products that monetize AI-enabled fraud patterns. I assume RDVT keeps a premium vs legacy bureaus due to growth and capital efficiency, but the multiple compresses as it scales and competition intensifies. Share repurchases and tuck-in acquisitions can further lift per-share outcomes if executed without diluting the data moat.

The swing risks are (1) privacy/policy tightening that reduces accessible data or increases compliance friction, (2) data-supplier bargaining power compressing gross margin, and (3) competitive bundling by large bureaus/fraud suites reframing RDVT as a commodity. The new shelf registration increases strategic optionality but also raises perceived dilution risk if growth investments outpace internally generated cash.

$68.50