A cash-rich full-stack quantum hardware player is still early in commercialization, with upside hinging on repeatable deployments and higher utilization. Recent roadmap timing changes raise execution risk but do not remove platform optionality by 2031.

Rigetti is a cash-backed, vertically integrated superconducting-quantum stack: if it turns its 2026–2027 scaling roadmap into repeatable deployments (cloud + sovereign/on-prem) plus developer-friendly hybrid workflows, revenue can inflect non-linearly by 2031—enough to sustain a ~2x+ EV outcome despite milestone and dilution risk.

If quantum becomes a practical co-processor, it is “new compute supply” in a compute-scarce world; upside is non-linear, but timelines remain uncertain and distribution moats are still forming.

The stock already prices meaningful quantum optionality, so upside by 2031 depends on converting engineering milestones into a repeatable product motion: (1) higher utilization via cloud access that looks like a real platform (workflows, tooling, SLAs), (2) standardized on-prem/sovereign deployments with services attach and upgrades, and (3) selective adjacent monetization (foundry/enablement, security-adjacent offerings) that creates switching costs. Recent roadmap slippage increases near-term credibility risk, but the balance sheet and vertical integration keep Rigetti in the winner’s set if the superconducting modality remains the leading path.

The dominant risk is a commercialization timing gap: technical progress can be real, but customers pay for repeatable outcomes, uptime, procurement simplicity, and clear ROI. Near-term roadmap delays can compound credibility risk, while heavy government mix adds volatility. If Rigetti must fund longer-than-expected timelines, dilution and/or multiple compression can outweigh technical wins.

Slightly more execution-risk weighted after the 108-qubit timing push; core thesis (commercialization as the gating factor) unchanged.

$36.51