Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 123 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures optical transceivers, lasers, components, and broadband networking products for AI data centers, cable, telecom, and fiber access networks. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer designs electric and hybrid vertical takeoff aircraft and is building related operating, defense, and aviation software capabilities. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI application software and a platform for building, deploying, and governing AI applications for commercial and government organizations. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells video, sensor, and data-management surveillance software, edge hardware, and support services to government and commercial security operators. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs connectivity semiconductors and embedded software that help hyperscalers and system builders deploy rack-scale AI infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI semiconductors and software for automotive, security, robotics, consumer and industrial vision systems. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs and sells CPUs, GPUs, adaptive compute, networking silicon and related software for data center, client, embedded and gaming markets. AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. Amkor provides outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services for chip companies, foundries and electronics manufacturers. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells silicon-anode lithium-ion battery cells for drones, defense, aviation, and other weight-sensitive mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates global e-commerce and third-party marketplaces, AWS cloud infrastructure, advertising, subscriptions, and logistics networks for consumers, merchants, developers, and enterprises. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista Networks sells Ethernet switching, routing, wireless, wide-area networking, and network software platforms for AI, cloud, campus, and routing environments. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, owns, and operates large-scale data center campuses and hosting infrastructure for AI, high-performance computing, and digital asset workloads. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising, monetization, and measurement software that helps advertisers acquire customers and helps app and connected-TV publishers monetize inventory. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech developing Apitox/LT-100 for knee osteoarthritis pain while also owning MindWave digital-asset treasury, token, and control-workflow assets. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU architectures, compute subsystems, and related semiconductor IP and tools, and earns royalties when customer chips ship. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography systems, related software and services used by chipmakers to manufacture advanced semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs, manufactures and plans to operate low-Earth-orbit satellites and ground gateways that extend cellular broadband directly to standard smartphones through mobile operator partners. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops the Aurora Driver self-driving system and commercial driverless trucking services for long-haul freight. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment develops autonomous military aircraft, loitering munitions, counter-drone, space, cyber, and mission software systems for U.S. and allied customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductor, networking, cybersecurity, and private-cloud software used by hyperscalers, enterprises, and communications customers. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai sells secure AI software, mission analytics, digital identity, and engineering solutions to defense, national security, travel, and trade customers. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing one-time genetic medicines using base editing for sickle cell disease and rare liver disorders. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld ultrasound devices, cloud workflow software, and partner tools that bring medical imaging closer to the bedside and home. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky provides subscription geospatial intelligence, imagery analytics, and mission workflows through its software stack and proprietary low Earth orbit satellite constellation. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT makes nuclear components, fuel and specialized services for U.S. defense programs, commercial nuclear operators and nuclear medicine markets. CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras builds wafer-scale AI processors, CS-3 systems, and cloud inference and training services for enterprises, researchers, and governments. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells software, semiconductor IP, and hardware used to design, verify, and analyze chips, packages, boards, and electromechanical systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy owns a large U.S. fleet of nuclear, gas, hydro, wind and solar generation assets and sells electricity, natural gas and clean-energy products to commercial, public-sector and residential customers. CLS Celestica Inc. Designs and manufactures data-center hardware platforms and complex electronics solutions for cloud, communications and industrial customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent develops and manufactures lasers, optical and optoelectronic components, modules, systems, and engineered materials for datacenter, communications, industrial, and electronics markets. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase runs a regulated crypto platform spanning trading, custody, stablecoins, payments, equities access, and developer infrastructure. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific designs, builds, and operates U.S. high-density data centers for AI colocation while winding down its legacy bitcoin mining mix. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs high-speed electrical and optical connectivity chips, cables, transceivers and IP used in AI, cloud and data infrastructure. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software for customer workflows, data, analytics, collaboration, and AI automation to enterprises and public-sector organizations. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence supplies embedded, cloud-connected, and generative AI voice assistant software and related services to automakers and transportation OEMs. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG Gene-editing biotech developing one-time medicines across hemoglobinopathies, cardiometabolic disease, autoimmune disease, oncology, and diabetes, with shared economics in CASGEVY and a broader wholly owned pipeline. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave sells AI cloud infrastructure, including GPU compute, storage, networking and managed software services, to AI labs, hyperscalers and enterprise customers. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog sells cloud software that helps enterprises monitor, secure, and automate applications, infrastructure, and AI workloads. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies sells enterprise and client hardware, including AI servers, storage, networking, PCs, support, and financing services. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks provides automated wet-lab execution, biological data generation, and cell-engineering services for biopharma, industrial biotech, agriculture, and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates carrier-neutral data centers and private connectivity services that let enterprises, cloud platforms and networks place infrastructure close together and move data securely. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells software and cloud services for search, observability, security analytics, and AI-powered data retrieval. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton makes electrical power-management equipment, aerospace systems, thermal solutions and related digital tools for data centers, utilities, buildings, industry and vehicle markets. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact-center software that combines routing, telephony, workforce tools, and AI automation for enterprise customer service teams. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells grid-scale battery storage systems, delivery and lifecycle services, and operating software for utilities, developers, and emerging large-load customers such as data centers. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services for OEMs building complex communications, datacenter, and other high-spec products. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Google's parent company sells digital advertising, cloud computing, subscriptions, and AI-enabled consumer and enterprise products. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells servers, storage, networking, hybrid-cloud software, services, and IT financing to enterprises and service providers. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. TuHURA is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing immuno-oncology therapies for Merkel cell carcinoma, acute myeloid leukemia, and other resistant cancers. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power-connected digital infrastructure spanning AI data center campuses, ASIC compute, cloud, and colocation in the U.S. and Canada. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, document transformation, and software-enabled services that help customers build, test, and govern AI systems. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers, sells direct cloud and on-prem access, and is expanding into quantum networking, security, sensing, and trusted manufacturing. IREN IREN Limited IREN builds and operates power-secured data centers and GPU cloud infrastructure for AI workloads while still monetizing part of its power base through Bitcoin mining. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, supply-chain, manufacturing, and increasingly power-and-cooling solutions for branded electronics and data-center customers. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric air taxis, owns urban air mobility operating assets through Blade, and plans to both operate services and sell aircraft to partners. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos designs, manufactures and supports unmanned aircraft, propulsion, satellite ground systems, microwave electronics and other defense and space mission systems for U.S., allied and commercial customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures photonic components, lasers, optical modules, and switching products used in AI data centers, telecom networks, industrial systems, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. AI-driven personal-lines insurer selling renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life insurance directly to consumers in the U.S. and Europe. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor sells low-power programmable chips, design tools, and now platform firmware and manageability software for servers, communications, industrial systems, and AI infrastructure. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops automotive vision chips, mapping, and driving software used in advanced driver-assistance and autonomous-driving systems for automakers and mobility operators. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta monetizes consumer attention across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger through advertising, while building AI assistants, messaging tools, and wearable computing products. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells semiconductor-based power management solutions for enterprise data, storage and computing, automotive, communications, industrial, and consumer applications. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs semiconductors for AI and cloud infrastructure, spanning custom chips, switches, optics, connectivity and security HSM hardware. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, developer tools, business applications, devices, and digital services to consumers, developers, enterprises, and governments. MSTR Strategy Inc. Strategy holds bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset and sells enterprise analytics, cloud, and governed AI software. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF, optical and photonic semiconductors used in data-center interconnects, defense systems, telecom networks and satellite links. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs and manufactures memory and storage chips for data center, client, mobile, automotive and industrial systems. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius builds and operates AI cloud infrastructure, selling GPU compute, storage, managed inference, and enterprise controls to AI developers and enterprises. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and a large U.S. generation, storage and transmission development business serving regulated, wholesale and contracted power markets. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare provides cloud-based networking, cybersecurity, performance, and developer infrastructure services on a unified global edge network. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops lower-cost 3D imaging systems and sells related clinical software, cloud workflow, AI, and radiology service capabilities. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells a cloud software platform that helps enterprises automate and govern workflows across IT, employee, customer, security, and operations functions. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp provides enterprise data storage systems, data management software, and cloud data services that help customers run, protect, and activate data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing CRISPR-based gene-editing therapies led by lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema and nex-z for transthyretin amyloidosis. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera develops and sells cell-free DNA diagnostic tests across oncology, women’s health, and organ health, with most testing run through its own regulated labs. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs and sells accelerated computing chips, systems, networking and software used in AI data centers, gaming, enterprise and edge applications. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops and plans to own and operate advanced nuclear power plants while also building fuel-cycle and radioisotope capabilities in the United States. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs and manufactures power, analog and sensing semiconductors used in automotive, industrial, and AI data-center systems. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells cloud infrastructure, databases, enterprise applications, hardware, and related services to businesses and governments worldwide. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, cameras, and perception software for industrial, robotics, automotive, defense, and smart infrastructure customers. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells network, cloud, security operations, identity, observability and AI security products and services to enterprises, governments and service providers. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise automation and orchestration software that helps organizations build, run, and govern workflows across applications, documents, AI agents, robots, and people. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops defense-focused autonomy software, avionics, engineering services, UAV systems, and precision manufacturing for government and industrial customers. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates Earth-observation satellites and sells imagery, geospatial data, analytics, and satellite services to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir builds software that connects data, decisions, and actions for governments and enterprises, with a growing focus on governed AI in live operations. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies designs optical engines, light sources and related photonic components for AI systems and hyperscale data centers. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotech developing prime-editing therapies for rare liver, lung, and hematologic or immunologic diseases. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, engineers, builds, upgrades and maintains electric power, underground utility, communications and related infrastructure, with growing exposure to large-load and data-center power projects. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave sells quantum computing systems, cloud access, software, and services for commercial, government, research, and academic customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. QCi builds photonic quantum systems, photonic components and advanced packaging, and sells foundry and manufacturing services for photonic chips. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat sells small military drones, uncrewed surface vessels, controllers, and related mission systems to defense, government, and public safety customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells identity intelligence, fraud and compliance decisioning, and professional safety software through its IDI and FOREWARN offerings. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti builds superconducting quantum computers, sells on-premises systems and components, and provides cloud access to its quantum hardware for government, research, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot develops and operates large power-rich campuses for bitcoin mining and data center workloads, and owns in-house electrical engineering and fabrication capabilities. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and on-orbit mission operations for commercial, civil, and national-security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Relay Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing targeted small-molecule medicines for cancer and genetic disease using its Dynamo discovery platform. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips, silicon IP, and patent licenses used in AI, data center, and other high-performance computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics designs, manufactures, deploys, and services commercial and industrial robots, while expanding into recurring robots-as-a-service and robotic data services. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion develops investigational medicines and drug-discovery collaborations using its AI-enabled Recursion OS platform, automated labs, and in-house compute. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells subscription cybersecurity software for endpoint, cloud, identity, and security operations workflows, with growing AI-driven automation. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells physics-based molecular discovery software and cloud workflows to pharma, biotech, industrial and academic customers and uses the same platform in collaborative and proprietary drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs and operates autonomous delivery and service robots, plus related software and data services, for delivery platforms, merchants, and hospital customers. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related software used in data centers, communications equipment, vehicles, industrial systems and defense electronics. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs and assembles servers, AI racks, storage, networking, liquid-cooling systems, and related deployment software and services for cloud, enterprise, and edge customers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale Power licenses and supports small modular nuclear reactor technology and related services for utilities, governments, and industrial customers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud-native platform for storing, processing, governing, sharing, and using enterprise data for analytics, applications, and AI workflows across public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells chip design software, semiconductor IP, hardware-assisted verification tools, cloud design environments, and simulation and analysis software for semiconductor and systems customers. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and conversational AI software that automates customer and employee interactions across phones, chat, vehicles, kiosks, TVs, and enterprise workflows. SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SpaceX launches rockets, operates the Starlink satellite network, and is building AI compute and model products for consumer, enterprise, government, and defense customers. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global builds and operates a nanosatellite constellation and sells space-based data, analytics, and mission services to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells PowerTrack software, edge hardware, and related services to monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds, installs, and supports automated warehouse systems that combine robotics, software, and services for large retail, wholesale, food, and distribution customers. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus sells genomic diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and multimodal data and AI tools to healthcare providers and life sciences customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Owns and operates U.S. nuclear and fossil power assets and sells electricity, capacity, ancillary services, and contracted power to wholesale and large-load customers. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs and sells battery electric vehicles, stationary storage, solar products, charging access and autonomy-related software. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures chips to customers’ designs and provides advanced packaging, mask, and design-enablement services for the global semiconductor industry. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, sequencing workflow tools, and antibody discovery offerings for biopharma, diagnostics, industrial, agriculture, and research customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs, manufactures, and licenses high-density modular power components and power systems used in AI compute, industrial, vehicle, communications, and aerospace/defense applications. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, manufactures, installs, and services power, cooling, rack, and monitoring infrastructure for data centers, communication networks, and other critical facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is an integrated U.S. power generator and retail energy provider that sells electricity, natural gas, and related plans across competitive markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops and operates power-secured U.S. data center campuses for AI and high-performance computing workloads while still retaining residual bitcoin mining exposure. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler sells cloud-native zero trust security and network access services that sit inline between users, devices, workloads, applications, and data.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: