Next Arc Research

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

• Growth Potential: Where could this company be in 5 years? Scores range from flat/declining to 10x+.
• Risk Profile: 10 weighted factors — technology maturity, regulatory exposure, capital needs, macro sensitivity, and more.
• AI Advantage: Not "does this company use AI?" but "does AI make this company harder to compete with?"
• Competitive Position: Who are the real threats, and where are the durable edges?
• Week-over-Week Trends: How are scores shifting? What's improving or deteriorating before it hits the headlines?

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

• AI & Machine Learning infrastructure and applications
• Biotechnology and AI-driven drug discovery
• Quantum computing and advanced semiconductors
• Robotics and automation
• Fintech and crypto infrastructure
• Cloud computing and SaaS platforms
• Energy transition and climate tech

Currently covering 102 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures optical transceivers, lasers and broadband networking gear used in AI data centers, cable networks, telecom and fiber access. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, operating systems, and adjacent defense offerings for urban air mobility. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software, developer tooling, and vertical applications for commercial, industrial, and government customers. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI provides edge AI hardware, software, and operator workflows for video, sensor, and evidence management in government, public safety, defense, and commercial security environments. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs connectivity semiconductors and companion software that help hyperscalers and system vendors build and operate rack-scale AI infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power AI vision chips and supporting software for security cameras, vehicles, robotics, industrial systems, and other edge devices. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips, networking products and software for data center, PC, gaming and embedded customers. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries for drones, aviation, defense and other mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates e-commerce marketplaces, fulfillment, subscriptions, advertising, cloud infrastructure, and AI services for consumers, merchants, developers, and enterprises. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells high-speed Ethernet switches, routing, wireless, WAN software, and network operations software for AI, cloud, data center, campus, and enterprise networks. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates high-density data centers and colocation campuses for AI, cloud, networking, and blockchain workloads. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides advertising, monetization, measurement, and connected-TV software that helps advertisers acquire customers and helps publishers maximize revenue. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile is building a low-Earth-orbit satellite network and gateway system that lets ordinary smartphones connect to cellular broadband through mobile operator partners and government channels. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops the Aurora Driver self-driving system and is commercializing autonomous freight hauling through driver-as-a-service partnerships with carriers, OEMs, and logistics operators. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductors and infrastructure software used in AI data centers, enterprise private cloud, networking, broadband, wireless and other mission-critical systems. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai sells mission-focused AI software and related services for defense, intelligence, border security, digital identity, and industrial planning workflows. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics develops base-editing genetic medicines across ex vivo and in vivo programs for sickle cell disease and rare liver and metabolic disorders. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld ultrasound devices, cloud workflow software, and chip-based imaging development offerings for healthcare providers and partners. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky sells subscription satellite imagery, analytics, monitoring, and sovereign space solutions to government and commercial customers through its proprietary constellation and software stack. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells chip-design software, verification hardware, semiconductor IP and system-analysis tools used to design and validate chips and electronic systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation generates and sells electricity, natural gas, and energy solutions from a 55 GW U.S. fleet led by nuclear, gas, geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar assets. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures and supports data-center hardware platforms and provides supply-chain and manufacturing services across cloud, communications, aerospace, defense, industrial and healthtech markets. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent develops and manufactures photonic materials, optical components, transceivers, and laser systems for datacenter, communications, industrial, electronics, and instrumentation markets. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a regulated crypto platform spanning trading, custody, stablecoins, payments, developer tools, and onchain infrastructure for consumers, institutions, and developers. CRBS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI processors, sells integrated compute systems, and offers cloud inference capacity and related services. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo sells high-speed copper and optical interconnect products, transceivers, retimers and IP used in AI and cloud data-center networks. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence sells conversational AI, voice assistant, and connected software used by automakers and Tier 1 suppliers in vehicle cockpits. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines, co-commercializes CASGEVY with Vertex, and advances wholly owned in vivo editing, cell therapy, siRNA, and regenerative medicine programs. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells subscription cybersecurity software and related services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and data for organizations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides purpose-built AI cloud infrastructure, orchestration software, storage, and managed services for model training, inference, and agent development. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides cloud-native observability, security, and incident workflow software that helps enterprises monitor applications, infrastructure, logs, user experience, and AI workloads. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell designs, manufactures, sells and supports PCs, servers, storage, networking, software, services and financing for enterprise, public sector and consumer customers. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells autonomous lab capacity, biology R&D services, datasets, and lab automation systems to commercial and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates global carrier-neutral data centers and private connectivity services that let enterprises, networks and cloud providers place infrastructure in the same metros and connect directly. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic provides enterprise search, observability, and cybersecurity software plus managed cloud services that help organizations analyze and act on data in real time. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton is a global power management company selling electrical distribution and control equipment, aerospace systems, and related software and services to data center, utility, industrial, commercial, residential and aerospace customers. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 provides cloud software and AI tools that help enterprises run customer service, sales, and related customer interactions across voice and digital channels. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence designs and integrates grid-scale battery storage systems and sells operating services plus optimization software to utilities, developers, and large power users. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet is a Thailand-centered manufacturer of complex optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic products for communications, datacenter, industrial, automotive, and medical OEM customers. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid cloud software, support, and financing solutions for private, hybrid, edge, and sovereign IT environments. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company developing therapies intended to overcome resistance to cancer immunotherapy, led by IFx-2.0 and TBS-2025. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates powered land, AI data center campuses, cloud and colocation services, and Bitcoin mining infrastructure. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, annotation, and workflow software and services for large technology companies and enterprises. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computing systems and cloud access, plus networking, security, sensing, and InSAR space products for enterprise, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN develops, owns and operates power-backed data centers for AI cloud, colocation and Bitcoin mining workloads. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops all-electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and is building a vertically integrated premium air-mobility service with supporting infrastructure and partner distribution. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos sells unmanned aircraft, engines, rocket and hypersonic systems, satellite ground software, microwave electronics, and related national-security products and services. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum makes lasers, transceivers, optical switching systems, and other photonic components used in AI data centers, telecom networks, industrial lasers, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade is a digital insurance carrier selling renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life policies in the U.S. and parts of Europe through AI-heavy underwriting, claims, and servicing. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor makes low-power programmable chips and related software used for control, connectivity, and security in compute, communications, industrial, and edge systems. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells power-management semiconductors, modules, and related tools used in AI servers, storage and computing, communications, automotive, industrial, and consumer systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs data-infrastructure semiconductors and custom silicon used in AI, cloud, networking, carrier and storage systems. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy is a public company that combines a large bitcoin treasury and capital-markets financing machine with an enterprise analytics software business. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF and optical semiconductor products for data center, telecom, industrial and defense connectivity applications. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs and manufactures memory and storage products including DRAM, NAND, NOR, HBM and data center SSDs for AI, cloud, mobile, automotive and industrial markets. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius is an AI cloud operator that sells GPU compute, storage and managed inference services, while also owning smaller autonomy and education businesses. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and NextEra Energy Resources, generating, transmitting and selling electricity while developing contracted renewables, storage, gas and transmission infrastructure. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare sells cloud-based security, networking, performance, and developer services over a global edge network. NNOX NANO-X IMAGING LTD. Nanox develops digital tomosynthesis imaging systems and sells related cloud, AI, teleradiology, and health IT services to healthcare providers. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera provides cell-free DNA genetic testing and related cloud-distribution services across oncology, women’s health, organ health, and rare disease. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA sells accelerated computing platforms spanning data-center GPUs, CPUs, networking, systems and software, with additional businesses in gaming and automotive. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops fast fission power plants, nuclear fuel recycling and fabrication capabilities, and radioisotope production assets for U.S. energy and industrial markets. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs and manufactures power and sensing semiconductors used in automotive, industrial, energy infrastructure, and AI data-center systems. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, camera vision products, and perception software for robotics, industrial automation, smart infrastructure, automotive, and selected defense use cases. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells integrated cybersecurity platforms and services that secure networks, cloud workloads, users, identities, endpoints, and AI-driven operations. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software that helps organizations build, run, and govern robots, AI agents, API automations, document workflows, and testing. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI sells autonomy software, avionics, engineering services, UAV-related systems, and precision-manufactured components for defense and industrial robotic platforms. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates an Earth observation satellite fleet and sells daily imagery, geospatial data, analytics, and related services to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software that connects data, models, and operational workflows for governments and enterprises, with a growing focus on production AI deployments. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies designs optical engines, light sources, and photonic integration products used in AI systems and hyperscale data-center networks. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing one-time gene-editing therapies using its Prime Editing platform across liver, lung, and partnered cell therapy programs. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, builds, repairs and maintains electric power, communications and related infrastructure for utilities, generators, data-center developers and other customers. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave sells annealing quantum computer systems, cloud access to quantum and hybrid solvers, and related services to enterprise, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. builds and sells photonic and quantum hardware, quantum security products, and thin-film lithium niobate foundry services for commercial and government customers. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat sells American-made drones, controllers, and maritime robotic systems for defense, government, and public safety missions. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. Red Violet sells cloud-hosted identity intelligence software and data-driven risk tools used for verification, fraud prevention, due diligence, and real-estate safety workflows. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and systems and provides cloud access to those systems for government, research, and commercial customers. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot Platforms operates bitcoin mining sites, power-ready data center campuses, and electrical engineering businesses used to build and monetize power-dense digital infrastructure. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and mission software and operations for commercial, civil, and national security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing small-molecule therapies for cancer and genetic disease using an integrated computational and experimental discovery engine. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips, interconnect IP, security IP, and technology licenses used in AI servers, data centers, and other compute systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops, deploys, and services commercial and industrial robots plus related data and fleet-management services for hospitality, retail, warehousing, and light industrial workflows. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech using an AI-native lab-and-software stack to discover, develop, and partner drug candidates. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells AI-native cybersecurity software and related services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and connected devices. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells molecular simulation and discovery workflow software to life sciences and materials customers and also monetizes its platform through collaborations and proprietary drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous robots for last-mile delivery and hospital logistics, while selling related software services. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs and sells precision timing semiconductors and timing solutions used in communications, data centers, industrial, automotive, aerospace, and other electronic systems. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs and manufactures servers, storage, networking gear, rack-scale AI systems, management software, and deployment services for enterprise, cloud, and AI data centers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale Power develops small modular nuclear reactor technology and sells related engineering, licensing, training, and plant services for utilities, industrial users, and project developers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud-native data platform that lets enterprises store, analyze, govern, share, and operationalize data and AI workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys provides chip design software, semiconductor IP, simulation and analysis software, and related engineering services. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. Builds voice and agentic AI software that helps enterprises automate customer interactions and tasks across phones, cars, kiosks, chat, TVs, and drive-thrus. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, controls, and services that help owners monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds robotic warehouse automation systems and the software, maintenance, and operating services that run large distribution centers. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus provides genomic testing, clinical workflow software, and governed multimodal data products to clinicians, health systems, researchers, and life sciences companies. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, battery storage systems and related software and services through a vertically integrated direct model. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC is the world's leading pure-play semiconductor foundry, manufacturing advanced logic chips, advanced packaging, and related services for chip designers and integrated device makers. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience makes synthetic DNA, next-generation sequencing tools, and antibody discovery solutions for biotech, pharma, diagnostics, and research customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures modular power components and power systems that convert and deliver electricity efficiently for data centers, industrial equipment, aerospace and defense systems, and other electronics. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, manufactures, and services power, cooling, rack, and control systems used in data centers, communication networks, and industrial facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Integrated U.S. power company with wholesale generation, retail electricity and natural gas sales, and growing nuclear and gas contracting exposure. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler provides cloud-delivered zero trust security and secure connectivity that brokers access between users, devices, applications, and the internet.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

• Understanding the landscape: The growth buckets, alignment scores, and forecast 2030 opportunity help readers form a high-level view of where each company or network sits in the AI-era stack — who is structurally advantaged, who faces hard limits, and which segments (chips, robotics, biotech, crypto infrastructure) are accelerating or stagnating.
• Spotting movement week-to-week: Many people scan the weekly score changes, risk shifts, and narrative updates to identify companies where something meaningful changed — a new disclosure, a roadmap shift, a competitive surprise, or a macro factor the model picked up. It’s a quick way to know which names might deserve a closer look.
• Comparing peers within a theme: The interactive screener and the CSV tables let readers compare companies inside the same category (e.g. GPU vendors, cloud platforms, agentic AI, biofoundry automation, blockspace networks) to see how their growth/risk profiles differ and how the “story” changes over time.
• Interpreting ETFs and thematic exposure: For those who invest mostly through ETFs, the coverage list and sector tags can help clarify which underlying companies drive exposure to specific themes — and where concentration, correlation, or dependence on a small number of AI-era winners might exist.
• Deep-dive reasoning: The long-form sections (thesis, critique, growth reasoning, risk commentary, ecosystem momentum, comparative advantage, and ELI5 explanations) give readers a structured narrative to reflect on: what is driving a company’s potential and what could undermine it. People often use these as prompts for their own due-diligence questions.
• Tracking themes and developing conviction: Some readers use the trend commentary, risk dimension breakdowns, and scenario narratives to build a mental model of where AI-era value is likely to concentrate over the next several years — not as price forecasts, but as a way to reason about technological direction, market structure, and strategic positioning.

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

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About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free:

• Top 5 AI-Leveraged Companies (Free PDF) — This week's five highest-ranked companies, with growth scores, risk profiles, and what gives each one an edge
• Weekly Update Preview (Sample Analysis) — The week's biggest moves across all ~120 companies — themes, sector shifts, winners, and risk changes
• Builder Tier Sample PDF — A complete company report showing every dimension of the analysis (as of October 2025)
• Breakout Candidates (Free) — Companies passing our structural screen for breakout potential, with timing signals, failure modes, and the evidence behind each pick