Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 120 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures lasers, optical components, transceivers, and broadband access equipment for data centers and communications networks. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer designs electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and related aviation technologies for commercial air taxi, defense, and operating-services use cases. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software, packaged applications, and deployment tooling for large enterprises and government agencies. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells secure video, sensor, and evidence-management software with edge appliances to government, law enforcement, defense, and commercial customers. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs connectivity silicon, modules, boards and embedded management software that help hyperscalers and OEMs build and operate AI and cloud infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella develops low-power edge AI vision semiconductors and software for cameras, vehicles, robots, and edge infrastructure systems. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips, networking silicon and software used in data centers, PCs, gaming systems and embedded devices. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy silicon-anode lithium-ion battery cells and related design services for aerospace, defense, and mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates global e-commerce and logistics networks, AWS cloud infrastructure, advertising, subscription services, and emerging satellite connectivity. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells high-performance Ethernet switching, routing, and network software for AI, cloud, data center, campus, and WAN environments. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital builds and operates power-dense data center campuses and hosting infrastructure for AI, cloud, networking, and legacy crypto workloads. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin sells AI-driven advertising, measurement, and connected-TV software that helps advertisers buy outcomes and publishers monetize digital inventory. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech developing LT-100 for osteoarthritis pain, with an added MindWave digital-asset treasury and workflow infrastructure business. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU and related semiconductor intellectual property, software, and compute subsystems used across smartphones, cloud servers, automotive, and edge devices. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography systems, metrology, software and lifecycle services used by chipmakers to manufacture advanced semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs and manufactures low-Earth-orbit satellites and related services that connect standard smartphones through mobile carrier partners and government customers. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops and deploys a self-driving system for freight trucks and is commercializing driverless trucking services on U.S. highways. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment designs, manufactures, and supports autonomous military systems, loitering munitions, counter-drone, space, directed-energy, and related mission software for U.S. and allied defense customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs semiconductor and infrastructure software products that help large cloud providers, enterprises and telecom operators build, run and secure complex computing systems. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai provides AI software, secure AI deployment, digital identity, and mission-focused analytics services for defense, national security, travel, trade, and regulated enterprise customers. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics develops base-editing genetic medicines, with lead programs in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and sickle cell disease plus a broader precision genetic medicine platform. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld whole-body ultrasound probes, cloud workflow software, and partner development tools for clinicians, health systems, and adjacent device makers. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky sells real-time satellite imagery, tasking software, AI-enabled monitoring, and sovereign mission solutions to government and commercial customers. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT manufactures nuclear components and fuel and provides technical, lifecycle and isotope-related services for U.S. government, commercial nuclear and medical customers. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells software, semiconductor IP, accelerated hardware and related services used to design, verify and simulate chips, boards and physical systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation generates electricity from nuclear, natural gas, geothermal, hydro, wind and solar assets and sells power and energy solutions to utilities, businesses, public-sector customers and households across U.S. competitive markets. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures, and integrates data-center, networking, aerospace, defense, industrial, and health-tech hardware systems for large OEM and cloud customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent makes photonics components, lasers, transceivers, optical modules, and engineered materials used in AI data centers, communications networks, and industrial systems. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a crypto platform for consumers, institutions, and developers to trade, custody, transfer, stake, pay, and build with digital assets. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific operates U.S. power-dense data center campuses that are being converted from bitcoin mining into high-density colocation for artificial intelligence workloads while still running a residual digital asset mining business. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs and sells high-speed connectivity chips, cables, optical modules and IP used to move data efficiently inside AI, cloud and hyperscale data-center networks. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software for customer relationship management, data, analytics, collaboration, integration, and AI-driven workflow automation. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence builds embedded and cloud-connected conversational AI, voice, and assistant software for automakers and transportation partners. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines, led by CASGEVY with Vertex, with a broader pipeline across hematology, oncology, autoimmune, cardiovascular and regenerative medicine. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations for enterprises and governments. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Provides specialized GPU cloud infrastructure, AI data-center capacity, and related software for training and inference workloads. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog sells a cloud-based observability and security platform that helps enterprises monitor, secure, and increasingly automate modern software systems. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell sells PCs, servers, storage, networking, software and support services, with growing exposure to enterprise AI infrastructure and related deployment services. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells automated biology R&D services, cloud-lab access, customer-site autonomous lab systems, and related data offerings to biotech, pharma, agriculture, industrial, and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates carrier-neutral data centers and interconnection services that let enterprises, networks and clouds place and connect digital infrastructure in major metros. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic provides cloud and self-managed software that helps enterprises search, observe, secure, and operationalize data across applications, infrastructure, and AI workflows. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton is a global power-management manufacturer selling electrical distribution, power quality, aerospace, and related control systems into utility, data center, industrial, commercial, residential, and aerospace markets. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact-center software, AI automation, and workflow integrations that help enterprises run customer service and sales interactions across voice and digital channels. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells utility-scale battery energy storage systems, lifecycle services, and optimization software for grids, renewables, and large power users. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services for OEMs building complex communications, computing, and industrial products. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet, Google's parent, monetizes search, YouTube, cloud infrastructure, software, subscriptions, devices, and AI services. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid-cloud software, services, and financing for on-premises and hybrid AI infrastructure. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company developing therapies intended to overcome resistance to cancer immunotherapy. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops power-linked digital infrastructure and compute assets for AI, cloud, colocation, and Bitcoin-related workloads. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, and software-assisted workflow services to AI builders, enterprises, and emerging federal customers. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers and related networking, sensing, security, and cloud-access products for enterprise, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN develops and operates power-rich North American data center campuses that monetize AI cloud capacity, colocation capacity, custom data center development, and bitcoin mining. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, supply-chain, and manufacturing solutions for OEMs across cloud and data center infrastructure, healthcare, automotive, industrial, and other end markets. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, operating software and related services for planned air taxi operations and partner aircraft deployments. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos develops and manufactures defense systems and software spanning unmanned aircraft, rocket and hypersonic systems, propulsion, microwave electronics, and satellite ground infrastructure. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures optical and photonic components, modules, and subsystems used in AI data centers, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing applications. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade is a digital consumer insurer that sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life policies through its app, website, licensed carriers, and partner integrations. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs and sells low-power programmable logic chips, related software, and system solutions used in computing, industrial, communications, automotive, and security applications. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops chips, software, mapping, and system solutions that help automakers deploy driver-assistance and autonomous-driving features. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates global social, messaging, and media platforms monetized mainly through advertising, with additional revenue from hardware, software, and paid business services. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells power-management semiconductors and modules used in data centers, storage and computing, automotive, communications, consumer and industrial systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs data infrastructure semiconductors including custom AI silicon, optical and electrical interconnect, Ethernet, storage and security chips for cloud and communications customers. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, security tools, developer platforms, and related services to consumers, enterprises, and governments. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy is a public bitcoin treasury company that also sells enterprise analytics and governed AI software. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF, optical and mixed-signal semiconductor products for data center, telecommunications, industrial and defense markets. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs and manufactures memory and storage products, including DRAM, NAND, HBM4 and SSDs, for data center, mobile, client, automotive and embedded markets. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius builds and operates an AI cloud selling GPU compute, storage, and managed platform services, with added optionality from Avride and TripleTen. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and a large national power development platform spanning renewables, storage, gas, transmission and customer power solutions. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare runs a global cloud network that delivers security, networking, performance, and developer services for websites, applications, APIs, and enterprise infrastructure. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops medical imaging systems and sells a broader imaging workflow stack that includes cloud software, AI analytics, and remote reading services. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that helps large organizations automate IT, employee, customer, security, and other cross-enterprise workflows. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, ONTAP data-management software, and cloud data services that help customers run, protect, and use data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Intellia is a clinical-stage biotech developing in vivo CRISPR gene-editing medicines for hereditary angioedema and transthyretin amyloidosis. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera sells cell-free DNA and genetic tests across oncology, women’s health, organ health, rare disease, and biopharma research workflows. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs and sells accelerated computing chips, networking, systems and software used in AI data centers, gaming, enterprise AI and automotive markets. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops advanced fast-fission power plants plus related fuel-cycle and isotope businesses aimed at data centers, industrial sites, communities, and defense-linked customers. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs, manufactures, and sells power, analog, mixed-signal, and sensing semiconductors used in automotive, industrial, cloud, and other electronic systems. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells enterprise applications, database software, cloud infrastructure, hardware, and related services to businesses, governments, and educational institutions. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, perception software, and adjacent vision products for robotics, industrial automation, automotive, and smart infrastructure customers. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity platforms and services that secure networks, clouds, users, identities, and security operations for enterprises and governments. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software for building, running, and governing automations that combine software robots, AI agents, APIs, and human approvals across business workflows. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops embodied autonomy software, avionics, UAV systems, engineering services, and precision-manufactured components for defense and industrial customers. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates an Earth-observation satellite fleet and sells imagery, geospatial data, tasking, and workflow software to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir builds software platforms that connect data, AI models, and operational workflows for government and commercial organizations. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET designs optical engines, light sources, and module architectures used to move data inside AI systems and hyperscale data centers. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing prime-editing therapies for severe genetic diseases and partnered gene-editing programs. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, engineers, procures, builds, upgrades, repairs and maintains electric power, generation, communications and related infrastructure for utilities, technology customers and energy operators. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops annealing and emerging gate-model quantum computers, cloud access, hybrid solvers, and related services for enterprise, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. QCi develops photonic quantum and analog machines, photonic chip foundry services, and related communications, sensing, and security products for commercial, government, and research customers. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat designs and manufactures American-made drones, control systems, and maritime robotic platforms for defense, government, and public safety customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. Red Violet sells identity intelligence, fraud, due diligence, compliance, and agent-safety software/data products to enterprise, public-sector, and real-estate customers. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti develops superconducting quantum computers, cloud access software, and on-premises quantum systems for government, research, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot operates Bitcoin mining, electrical engineering and fabrication, and data center development centered on large power-secured campuses in Texas. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, mission software, and related operations for commercial, civil, and national-security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company using its Dynamo discovery engine to develop small-molecule medicines for cancer and genetic disease. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips and semiconductor IP that improve bandwidth, latency and security in AI, data-center and client systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops and deploys service and industrial robots, plus leasing, rental, and data services, for hospitality, retail, healthcare, automotive, and manufacturing customers. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech using an integrated AI, data, and automated-lab stack to discover and develop internal and partnered medicines. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells AI-driven cybersecurity software that helps enterprises protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and security operations. SDGR Schrodinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells molecular-design software and informatics to life-science customers and uses the same computational platform in collaborations and internal drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve designs and operates autonomous sidewalk delivery and hospital service robots, along with software, connectivity, and workflow tools that support those fleets. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related software used in communications, datacenter, automotive, industrial and mobile electronics. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs and manufactures application-optimized servers, storage, racks, liquid-cooling systems, management software, and deployment services for AI, cloud, enterprise, and edge workloads. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale designs and licenses small modular reactor technology and provides related engineering, training, and plant services for utilities, developers, and industrial customers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake sells a cloud-native data platform that lets enterprises store, process, share, and use data and AI workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys provides semiconductor design software, semiconductor IP, simulation and analysis software, and design services for semiconductor and systems engineering customers. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and conversational AI software for automotive, restaurants, customer service, employee support, and enterprise automation use cases. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global sells satellite-derived weather, aviation, and radio-frequency intelligence data plus hosted space services to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, edge controls, and services used to monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds AI-enabled warehouse automation systems that combine robots, software, storage architecture, and services for large retail, wholesale, and food distribution customers. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus provides genomic diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and multimodal data products to physicians, health systems, and life sciences companies. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. power generation assets and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale markets and under contracted arrangements. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures, sells and leases battery electric vehicles, energy storage systems, solar products and related software and services. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures semiconductors and provides advanced packaging, testing, mask, and related design-enablement services for semiconductor customers worldwide. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience makes synthetic DNA, next-generation sequencing preparation products, and antibody discovery offerings for biotech, pharma, diagnostics, and research customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density modular power components and power systems used in AI computing, industrial, automotive, communications, and aerospace/defense applications. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs and services power, cooling, rack and monitoring systems used to keep data centers and other critical digital sites running. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra owns generation assets and sells electricity and natural gas plans to residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers across competitive U.S. power markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops, owns, and operates U.S. powered data center campuses for AI and high-performance computing hosting alongside bitcoin mining. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler sells cloud-delivered zero trust security that sits inline between users, devices, applications, and networks to control access, inspect traffic, and protect data.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: