Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 120 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Designs and manufactures optical transceivers, lasers, components, and cable broadband networking equipment for data center, cable, telecom, and fiber access customers. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft plus the training, maintenance, and operating systems needed for early air taxi and defense deployments. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software and packaged applications for commercial, industrial, and government workflows that need integration, security, and operational control. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells edge hardware and software that turn video, sensor, and evidence workflows into secure, AI-assisted systems for government, public safety, and commercial operators. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs sells semiconductor connectivity chips, modules, switches and embedded management software used to build and operate AI and cloud data center racks. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI vision semiconductors and software for cameras, vehicles, robots, and edge infrastructure. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs and sells CPUs, AI accelerators, GPUs, adaptive chips, networking products, and software for data center, client, gaming, and embedded markets. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes for drones, aviation, defense and other mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates a global commerce, cloud, advertising, subscription, and logistics platform serving consumers, merchants, developers, enterprises, and advertisers. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells Ethernet switching and routing systems plus network software and services for AI, cloud, campus, and WAN environments. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital builds and operates power-linked AI data center campuses, hosting facilities, and a cloud GPU business being separated into ChronoScale. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides advertising software that helps advertisers acquire customers and helps publishers monetize mobile-app and connected-TV inventory. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. is a pre-revenue biotech developing LT-100/Apitox for osteoarthritis pain and, after its MindWave merger, also owns digital-asset treasury infrastructure products. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU and related semiconductor IP, software, and platform technology, and earns royalties when customer chips using its designs ship. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography, metrology, inspection, software and services that chipmakers use to manufacture advanced semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs, manufactures, and plans to operate low-Earth-orbit satellites and ground gateways that connect standard smartphones to cellular broadband through carrier partners. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops the Aurora Driver autonomous driving system and is commercializing autonomous freight services with OEM, carrier, and logistics partners. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment builds autonomous aircraft, loitering munitions, counter-drone, directed-energy, space, cyber, and mission-software systems for U.S. and allied defense customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs semiconductor and infrastructure software products used in AI data centers, enterprise computing, networking, cybersecurity, broadband, and telecom systems. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai sells mission-focused AI software, analytics, and engineering solutions to defense, national security, travel, trade, and other regulated customers. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing base-editing genetic medicines for sickle cell disease, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, and other serious genetic diseases. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld semiconductor ultrasound devices, cloud workflow software, and related services to clinicians, health systems, medical schools, and veterinarians. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky sells space-based imagery, analytics, and monitoring services to government and commercial customers through its Spectra software and owned satellite constellation. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT designs, manufactures and services nuclear components, fuel and related systems for U.S. government, commercial nuclear and nuclear medicine customers. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells software, IP, hardware, and simulation tools used to design, verify, and analyze advanced chips and engineered systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy generates and sells electricity, natural gas, and energy solutions, anchored by the largest nuclear fleet in the United States and an expanded dispatchable portfolio after Calpine. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures and integrates data-center hardware platforms and provides supply-chain and lifecycle services for cloud, communications and industrial customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent develops and manufactures photonics products, optical networking components, semiconductor devices, lasers, and advanced materials for datacenter, communications, and industrial customers. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates consumer, institutional, and developer products for crypto trading, custody, stablecoins, and onchain payments. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific operates U.S. power-dense data-center campuses that provide high-density colocation for AI workloads while still generating revenue from bitcoin mining and hosted mining. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs high-speed copper and optical interconnect chips, cables, software, and IP used in AI and cloud data center networks. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software for customer relationship management, collaboration, data, analytics, security, and AI automation to enterprises. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence provides white-label conversational AI, voice assistant, and related software and services for automotive manufacturers and their suppliers. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines for serious diseases and, with partners, commercializes approved and investigational CRISPR/Cas9-based therapies. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, data and security operations for enterprises and public-sector customers. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides AI cloud infrastructure and related software, storage, networking, and orchestration services for training and inference workloads. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides a cloud-based observability and security platform that helps enterprises monitor, troubleshoot, automate, and secure modern applications and infrastructure. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell sells enterprise infrastructure, PCs, storage, networking, software, support, and financing, with growing exposure to AI systems and lifecycle services. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells automated laboratory services, customer-site autonomous lab systems, and biological data-generation tools to biotech, pharmaceutical, industrial, and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates global data centers and private interconnection infrastructure that let enterprises, cloud providers and networks colocate and exchange traffic securely. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic provides cloud and self-managed software that helps enterprises search, observe, secure, and use proprietary data in AI-driven workflows. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton sells electrical power management equipment, software and related systems for data centers, utilities, industrial, commercial, residential, aerospace and mobility customers. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 provides cloud software for contact centers, including routing, agent tools, AI automation, and workforce applications. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence supplies utility-scale battery energy storage systems, lifecycle services, and optimization software for utilities, developers, and other power asset owners. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides advanced optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services for complex OEM products used in communications, AI infrastructure, automotive, lasers, and sensing. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Parent of Google, YouTube, Android, and Google Cloud, monetizing digital attention, enterprise software, and AI infrastructure at global scale. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid cloud software, services, and financing for enterprises, service providers, and public-sector customers. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage oncology biotech developing immune-resistance therapies led by IFx-2.0 in Merkel cell carcinoma and TBS-2025 in acute myeloid leukemia. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power-linked digital infrastructure and compute assets across bitcoin mining, colocation, cloud, and AI workloads. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, annotation, and workflow software for model developers, enterprises, healthcare users, and communications teams. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computing systems and sells cloud access, networking, security, and sensing solutions to government, research, and enterprise customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN builds, owns and operates power-backed data centers, GPU cloud infrastructure and Bitcoin mining operations across North America. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, supply chain, manufacturing, and post-production solutions for large brands and OEMs across data center, healthcare, automotive, industrial, and consumer end markets. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby Aviation develops electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft and plans to operate and support premium air-taxi, government, and partner aircraft networks. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos develops and manufactures unmanned aircraft, propulsion and rocket systems, satellite ground software and hardware, microwave electronics, and other national-security systems for U.S. and allied customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum makes optical and photonic chips, modules, switches, and lasers used in AI data-center networking, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance directly to consumers through its app, web platform, and partner integrations in the U.S. and Europe. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs and sells low-power programmable semiconductors, software tools, and development hardware for communications, computing, industrial, automotive, and security applications. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye sells automotive driver-assistance and autonomous-driving chips, software, mapping, and integrated systems to automakers, suppliers, and mobility operators. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Threads, and Reality Labs, monetizing primarily through advertising and increasingly through messaging, subscriptions, hardware, and AI-enabled services. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. MPS designs and sells power-management semiconductors and modules used in AI and data-center hardware, automotive systems, industrial equipment, communications gear, and consumer devices. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs fabless semiconductor and custom silicon products used in cloud, data center, carrier and enterprise infrastructure. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, security tools, developer platforms, business applications, devices, and gaming content to consumers, enterprises, and governments. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and uses common, preferred, and convertible securities to fund a large corporate bitcoin treasury. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF, microwave and optical semiconductors for data center, telecom, industrial, satellite and defense applications. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND, NOR and memory and storage products used across AI data centers, PCs, phones, autos and industrial systems. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius operates an AI cloud platform that sells GPU compute, storage, and managed infrastructure tooling to AI developers and enterprises. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and develops, owns and operates generation, storage and transmission assets for regulated and contracted power customers. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare runs a global network that provides security, networking, performance, and developer services for Internet applications and traffic. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox sells digital imaging systems, teleradiology services, AI imaging software, and health IT workflow tools to healthcare providers and imaging partners. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that helps enterprises and public-sector organizations automate, govern, and manage IT, employee, customer, security, and other business workflows. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, data management software, and cloud data services that help customers store, move, protect, and govern data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing in vivo CRISPR gene-editing therapies for hereditary angioedema, transthyretin amyloidosis, and other severe diseases. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera sells cell-free DNA genetic tests across oncology, women’s health, organ health, and rare disease through regulated clinical labs and embedded provider workflows. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing chips, networking, systems and software used across AI data centers, gaming, enterprise, robotics and automotive markets. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo is a pre-revenue advanced nuclear developer building small fast-fission power plants, fuel services, and radioisotope capabilities for future power and industrial customers. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi sells power and sensing semiconductors and modules for automotive, industrial, cloud infrastructure, and other electronics markets. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells database software, enterprise applications, cloud infrastructure, and industry software to enterprises and public-sector customers. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, stereo cameras, and perception software for robotics, industrial automation, automotive, and smart infrastructure customers. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity products, subscriptions, and services that secure enterprise networks, clouds, identities, browsers, endpoints, and security operations. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells software that helps enterprises build, run, and govern automations, robots, and AI-driven workflows across business processes. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops defense and industrial autonomy software, avionics, UAV-related systems, engineering services, and precision-manufactured components. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet sells satellite imagery, geospatial data subscriptions, analytics, and satellite services to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software subscriptions and related services that connect data, AI models, and operational workflows for governments and enterprises. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET designs optical engines, light sources and custom optical modules used in AI systems and hyperscale data center networks. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech developing one-time gene editing therapies using its Prime Editing platform for rare genetic diseases. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, builds, repairs and maintains electric power, utility, communications and mission-critical infrastructure, including grid, generation interconnect and data-center power systems. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops annealing and gate-model quantum computing systems, cloud access software, and related services for enterprise, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. develops photonic and quantum machines, photonic foundry services, and secure communications products for commercial and government customers. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat designs and sells American-made drones, controllers, and related robotic systems for defense, government, public safety, and allied customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. Red Violet sells identity-intelligence software and data services to enterprises, public-sector agencies, and real estate professionals for verification, fraud, compliance, due diligence, and investigation workflows. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and systems, and sells cloud and on-premises access to government, research, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot Platforms develops and operates bitcoin mining sites, electrical engineering businesses, and large-scale powered campuses that can be leased to AI and high-density computing customers. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, payloads, and mission operations to commercial, government, and national security space customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Relay Therapeutics is a clinical-stage precision medicine biotech developing small-molecule therapies for genetically defined cancers and genetic diseases using its protein-motion discovery engine. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory-interface chips, controller and security IP, and related licenses for AI, data center and other data-intensive computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops, deploys, rents, and services robotic systems for hospitality, commercial, and industrial automation workflows. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion is a clinical-stage biotechnology company using its Recursion OS platform, automated labs, and proprietary data to discover and develop medicines internally and with pharma partners. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells an AI-native cybersecurity platform that helps enterprises detect, prevent, investigate, and respond to threats across endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and related data. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells computational chemistry and discovery workflow software to pharma, biotech, industrial, and academic customers while also advancing collaborative and proprietary drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs and operates autonomous delivery and service robots for food delivery and healthcare workflows through platform and enterprise partners. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related software for communications, datacenter, automotive, industrial, aerospace and other electronics markets. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs, manufactures, and sells servers, SuperCluster racks, MicroBlade systems, storage, and related management software for enterprise, cloud, AI, and edge data centers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale develops small modular reactor technology and sells related licensing, engineering, training, and plant-support services to nuclear project developers and industrial power customers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud-based data platform that lets enterprises store, govern, analyze, share, and use data to build applications and AI workloads. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys provides chip design software, silicon IP, simulation and analysis software, and hardware-assisted verification tools used to build complex semiconductor and intelligent systems. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and conversational AI software for customer service, ordering, automotive, and IT workflows. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global operates a smallsat constellation that sells satellite-derived weather, aviation, radio-frequency intelligence, and space services to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, services, and edge control products that help owners and operators monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic provides integrated warehouse automation systems, robotics, software, and related services for large distribution operators. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus provides genomic diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and multimodal data analytics to physicians, health systems, and life sciences companies. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. nuclear and gas-fired generation assets and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale and contracted power markets. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs and sells electric vehicles, battery storage systems, charging infrastructure and software-enabled services, with longer-dated autonomy and robotics optionality. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC is the leading pure-play semiconductor foundry, manufacturing advanced logic chips and advanced packaging for fabless chip designers and system companies. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, next-generation sequencing tools, and antibody discovery services for biopharma, diagnostics, industrial, and research customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density modular power components and power systems used in computing, industrial, telecom, transportation, and aerospace and defense equipment. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co. Vertiv designs, manufactures, installs and services critical power, cooling, rack and monitoring infrastructure for data centers, communication networks and other uptime-sensitive facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is an integrated U.S. power company that sells electricity and natural gas to retail customers and owns nuclear, gas, solar, and storage generation assets in competitive markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops, owns and operates U.S. data center infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing hosting alongside residual bitcoin mining, centered on power-advantaged brownfield campuses. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler provides cloud-delivered zero trust security that sits inline between users, devices, applications, workloads, branches, and data for enterprises and government customers.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: