Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 122 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures optical transceivers, lasers, amplifiers, and related fiber-networking products for AI datacenters, broadband, telecom, and fiber access markets. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer designs electric and hybrid vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and is building related operating, defense, and aviation technology services. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells an enterprise AI software stack and packaged applications for industrial, commercial, and government customers. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells video, sensor, and evidence-management software plus edge hardware and support services for security, public-safety, and government surveillance workflows. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs connectivity semiconductors and companion software that help hyperscalers and system makers connect, validate, and manage rack-scale AI and cloud infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power computer-vision and edge-AI chips plus software tools for security cameras, vehicles, robotics and other intelligent devices. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs and sells CPUs, GPUs, adaptive computing products, networking silicon and related software for data center, PC, gaming and embedded markets. AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. Amkor provides outsourced semiconductor package design, assembly and test services for semiconductor companies, foundries and electronics OEMs. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy silicon-anode lithium-ion battery cells and custom battery systems for drones, defense, aviation, and light electric mobility. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates a global retail marketplace and fulfillment network and sells cloud computing, advertising, subscription, media, and emerging satellite connectivity services. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista develops and sells Ethernet switching, routing, and network software platforms for AI and cloud data centers, campus networks, and routing environments. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates power-dense data center campuses that lease capacity to AI and high-performance computing customers in North America. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides AI-driven advertising software that helps advertisers acquire customers and helps publishers monetize mobile app and connected-TV inventory. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech with U.S. rights to LT-100/Apitox for knee osteoarthritis pain and a MindWave subsidiary holding digital assets including Bitcoin, Tether, and NILA. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU, GPU, system IP, compute subsystems, and software tools that let chipmakers build Arm-based semiconductors across mobile, cloud, edge, automotive, and AI infrastructure. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography systems, related software, and service used by chipmakers to manufacture advanced semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs, manufactures, and plans to operate low Earth orbit satellites that let mobile carriers and government users connect standard smartphones to broadband from space. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops the Aurora Driver self-driving system and related freight services for trucking carriers, OEMs, and logistics operators. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment designs and manufactures autonomous aircraft, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems, mission software, and related defense technologies for U.S. and allied customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software products for AI data centers, networking, broadband, wireless, storage and enterprise IT environments. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai provides AI software and related services for defense, intelligence, homeland security, and trade and travel workflows. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing base-editing genetic medicines for sickle cell disease, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, PKU, and other serious diseases. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly Network sells handheld ultrasound probes, cloud imaging software, and AI-enabled workflow tools to clinicians, health systems, educators, and developers. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky provides subscription satellite imagery, analytics, and mission software to government and defense customers using its own low-earth-orbit constellation. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT engineers and manufactures nuclear reactors, fuel, components and services for U.S. defense, commercial power, medical and space customers. CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI processors and systems and sells AI compute through on-premise deployments and cloud inference services. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence provides software, semiconductor IP, verification hardware, and system analysis tools used to design chips and complex engineered products. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation generates and sells electricity and natural gas and provides retail energy and sustainability solutions to commercial, industrial, public-sector and residential customers in the United States. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures and supports data-center hardware platforms, rack systems and supply-chain solutions for hyperscalers, OEMs and regulated industrial customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent develops and manufactures photonics components, optical networking products, engineered materials, and laser systems for datacenter, communications, and industrial customers. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a crypto trading, custody, payments, and developer-infrastructure platform serving consumers, institutions, and developers. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific builds and operates powered data center campuses that are being repurposed from bitcoin mining into high-density AI colocation, while retaining smaller self-mining and hosting businesses. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs high-speed connectivity chips, active electrical cables, optical interconnect products, and SerDes IP used in AI and hyperscale networks. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells enterprise cloud software for customer relationship management, workflow automation, analytics, integration, data unification, and AI-enabled applications. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence licenses automotive voice, conversational AI, connected services, and related professional services to automakers and major automotive suppliers. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines, led by approved therapy CASGEVY and a pipeline spanning in vivo editing, cell therapy and siRNA. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike provides cloud-delivered cybersecurity software, threat intelligence, and managed security services to enterprises, governments, and other organizations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides AI-focused cloud computing, managed orchestration software, and related infrastructure for training, inference, and production AI workloads. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides a cloud-based observability and security platform used to monitor applications, infrastructure, logs, user experience, and AI workloads across modern software stacks. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell sells and supports PCs, servers, storage, networking, software, services and financing for enterprises, public-sector customers and consumers. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks provides biological R&D services, autonomous lab infrastructure, and lab automation software and tools for commercial and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates vendor-neutral data centers and interconnection services that let enterprises, cloud providers and networks place infrastructure in the same metros and connect privately. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells cloud and self-managed software that lets enterprises search data, monitor systems, and detect security threats on one shared platform. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton manufactures and integrates electrical power-distribution, power-quality, cooling and aerospace power systems, with software and services layered on top. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact-center software, AI automation, telephony usage, and related services to enterprises. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells grid-scale battery storage systems, lifecycle services, and optimization software to utilities, developers, and asset owners. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet is a precision manufacturing partner that builds advanced optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic products for communications, AI computing, automotive, medical, and industrial OEMs. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet operates Google Search, YouTube, Google Cloud, Android, Workspace and Gemini, monetizing user intent, attention and enterprise compute. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid-cloud software, services, and financing to businesses, governments, and service providers. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. TuHURA Biosciences is a clinical-stage oncology company developing immunotherapies aimed at reversing resistance to checkpoint inhibitors, led by IFx-2.0 in Merkel cell carcinoma and TBS-2025 in acute myeloid leukemia. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power-linked digital infrastructure and compute platforms spanning AI data centers, cloud, colocation, and bitcoin mining. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation and deployment services, healthcare record structuring through Synodex, and PR workflow software through Agility. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers and related networking, security, sensing, and cloud services for commercial and government customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN develops and operates power-backed data center campuses that provide AI cloud infrastructure and still retain Bitcoin mining exposure. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, manufacturing, supply-chain, and system-integration services for cloud, data center, networking, healthcare, automotive, and other industrial customers. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and is building a regulated air-taxi network while also pursuing aircraft sales and government applications. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos develops unmanned aircraft, propulsion and hypersonic systems, microwave electronics, and satellite ground software for U.S. and allied defense customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures optical and photonic components, modules, and subsystems used in AI and cloud data centers, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing applications. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life insurance through a digital direct-to-consumer platform in the U.S. and Europe. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs low-power programmable chips plus related software and security services for compute, communications, industrial, and embedded systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Develops automotive driver-assistance and autonomous-driving chips, software, mapping, and full-stack systems for automakers and mobility fleets. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates global social, messaging, video and AI products, monetizing them mainly through advertising with smaller hardware and software revenue streams. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Fabless semiconductor company that sells high-efficiency power-management chips and modules into AI/data center, automotive, communications, industrial, storage and consumer systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs fabless semiconductors and custom silicon for AI data centers, cloud networking, carrier infrastructure and enterprise systems. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, AI tools, developer platforms, and related services worldwide. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and uses public equity, preferred stock, and convertible debt to build and manage a large bitcoin treasury. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures high-performance RF, optical and networking semiconductors for data center, defense, industrial and telecom markets. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron develops and manufactures DRAM, NAND and NOR memory plus storage products used in AI data centers, cloud, mobile, automotive and industrial systems. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius operates an AI-native cloud platform for GPU compute, model training, managed inference and related software, alongside smaller autonomy and edtech assets. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy combines Florida Power & Light's regulated utility franchise with a national power, storage, transmission and gas infrastructure development platform. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare provides cloud-based network security, application performance, Zero Trust access, and edge developer services on a global network. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops digital tomosynthesis imaging systems and sells related AI, cloud, remote-reading, and health IT solutions to healthcare providers. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that helps enterprises and public-sector organizations automate, govern, and execute workflows across IT, employee, customer, risk, security, and data operations. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, data management software, and cloud data services for hybrid-cloud and AI-era workloads. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Intellia develops in vivo CRISPR-based gene-editing therapies for severe genetic diseases, led by lonvo-z in hereditary angioedema and nex-z in transthyretin amyloidosis. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera sells molecular diagnostic tests and related workflow, data, and lab software across oncology, women’s health, organ health, and rare disease. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms spanning AI chips, systems, networking and production software for data center and edge workloads. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops fast-fission power plants, nuclear fuel recycling and fabrication capabilities, and isotope production assets for electricity and isotope customers. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs, manufactures and sells power, analog and sensing semiconductors for automotive, industrial, cloud power and other electronics customers. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells enterprise database software, cloud infrastructure, and cloud applications to businesses, governments, and healthcare organizations. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, stereo cameras, AI compute, and perception software for robotics, industrial automation, automotive, and smart infrastructure customers. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity software, subscriptions, support, and hardware across network security, cloud security, security operations, AI security, and identity. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software that helps organizations build, orchestrate, and govern automations across robots, AI agents, APIs, documents, and human review. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI sells autonomy software, avionics, engineering services, UAV-related systems, and precision manufacturing to defense and industrial customers. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates an Earth-observation satellite fleet and sells imagery, geospatial data, and software/API access to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir builds software that helps governments and enterprises integrate data, govern AI, and run real-world operations. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies develops optical engines, light-source products and custom optical modules for AI systems and hyperscale data centers using its Optical Interposer platform. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing prime-editing genetic therapies and partnering selected applications of its platform. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services is a specialty infrastructure contractor that designs, builds, upgrades and maintains electric power, utility, communications and related energy systems. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops and sells quantum computing systems, cloud access, software tools, and related services for enterprise, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. develops photonic chips, foundry services, secure-communications hardware, and related quantum and edge-AI systems for commercial and government customers. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat sells U.S.-made unmanned aircraft and maritime robotic systems, plus related integrations and support, to defense, government, and public safety customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells identity intelligence and risk solutions through IDI and FOREWARN to enterprises, public-sector users, and real-estate professionals. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and sells on-premises quantum systems and cloud access to government, research, and enterprise customers. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot Platforms develops and operates U.S. power-backed digital infrastructure, generating revenue from bitcoin mining, data center services, and electrical engineering and fabrication. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and mission operations for commercial, civil, and national security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Relay Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech using a motion-based drug discovery engine to develop targeted small-molecule therapies for cancer and genetic disease. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips and licenses high-speed interface and security technologies used in AI, data center, and other computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops, deploys, leases, rents, and services service and industrial robots plus related data infrastructure for commercial customers. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion is a clinical-stage biotech that uses its Recursion OS platform, automated labs, and proprietary data to discover and develop medicines internally and with partners. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells AI-driven cybersecurity software for endpoint, cloud, identity, data, and AI security to enterprises and public-sector customers. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger develops physics-based molecular discovery software and cloud workflows for biopharma and materials customers, while also earning partner-led drug discovery revenue and upside. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous delivery and service robots plus supporting software for sidewalk logistics and hospital workflows. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs and sells MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related tools used to keep data centers, communications gear, vehicles, and industrial systems synchronized. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Designs and manufactures servers, storage, racks, networking, management software, and support services for AI, cloud, enterprise, and edge workloads. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale Power develops small modular nuclear reactor technology and related licensing, engineering, and deployment support services for utilities, industrial users, and project developers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud data platform that lets enterprises store, analyze, share, and run AI on governed data across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells semiconductor design software, interface IP, verification hardware and software, and engineering simulation tools used to build chips and complex systems. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI provides voice, conversational, and agentic AI software to automakers, restaurants, enterprises, device makers, and developers. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global operates a satellite constellation and data platform that sells weather, aviation, radio-frequency intelligence, and space services to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, edge controls, and services that help owners and operators monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds AI-enabled robotic warehouse systems plus software, maintenance, and operating services for large distribution customers. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus provides molecular diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and de-identified data and analytics products for physicians, health systems, and biopharma customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. power generation assets and sells electricity, capacity, and related services into wholesale and contracted markets. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, battery storage systems and related software and services, with expanding bets in autonomy and robotics. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures chips for other semiconductor companies and increasingly sells the advanced packaging and test services that AI systems require. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, genomics workflow tools, and antibody discovery solutions for biotech, pharma, diagnostics, industrial, and academic customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density modular power components and power systems for AI compute, industrial, automotive, telecom, and aerospace and defense applications. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, manufactures, and services power, thermal, rack, monitoring, and related infrastructure used by data centers, communication networks, and industrial facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra generates electricity from a large U.S. fleet of nuclear, gas, coal, solar, and storage assets and sells electricity and natural gas to customers in competitive markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops and operates U.S. power-secured data center campuses for AI and high-performance computing hosting, alongside legacy bitcoin mining. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler provides cloud-delivered zero trust security software that secures users, branches, workloads, and data for enterprises and governments.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: