Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 120 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AOI designs and manufactures fiber-optic networking products, including lasers, transceivers and cable network equipment, for data center, CATV, telecom and fiber access customers. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric and hybrid-electric aircraft, propulsion systems and related aviation services for air taxi and defense markets. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells subscription software that helps enterprises and government agencies build, deploy, and operate AI applications across commercial and regulated workflows. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI provides edge, on-premise, datacenter, and cloud video, sensor, and data-management software plus appliances for government and enterprise security and operational workflows. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs connectivity semiconductors, modules, and related software that help hyperscalers and OEMs build rack-scale AI and cloud systems. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power semiconductors and supporting software that run computer vision and AI workloads in cameras, vehicles, industrial systems, and robots. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs and sells CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips and related software for data center, client, gaming and embedded markets. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy lithium-ion batteries, centered on its SiCore product family, for aerospace, defense and mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates global online and physical retail marketplaces, cloud infrastructure, advertising, subscriptions, and seller services for consumers, merchants, developers, and enterprises. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells Ethernet switching, routing, and network software and services for AI, cloud, campus, and wide-area networking environments. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates power-dense data center campuses and related hosting services for AI, cloud, and blockchain workloads. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides AI-driven advertising, app monetization, measurement, and connected-TV software to advertisers, publishers, and media companies. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech developing LT-100/Apitox for osteoarthritis pain, with added but still unproven MindWave digital-asset treasury exposure after its December 2025 merger. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU, GPU and system IP, offers more integrated compute platforms, and earns royalties on chips shipped using its technology. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography systems, related software and services that semiconductor manufacturers use to manufacture advanced chips. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs, manufactures, and launches large cellular broadband satellites and sells direct-to-phone connectivity plus gateway equipment to carrier and government customers. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops and deploys a self-driving system for freight trucks, aiming to sell autonomous transportation services through partners rather than owning large fleets itself. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment develops autonomous aircraft systems, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems, directed energy, space, cyber, and related defense products for U.S. and allied government customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductor, networking, and infrastructure software products used in AI data centers, enterprise private clouds, broadband, wireless, and industrial systems. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai provides AI software, analytics, and mission services for defense, national security, travel, trade, and other regulated infrastructure customers. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics develops base-editing genetic medicines for severe inherited diseases, with lead programs in sickle cell disease and alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly Network sells handheld whole-body ultrasound devices plus cloud workflow, education, AI, and partner-development tools for clinicians, health systems, and OEM partners. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky sells satellite imagery, AI-enabled geospatial analytics, and sovereign mission solutions through its Spectra software and owned low-Earth-orbit constellation. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT manufactures nuclear components, fuel and related services for U.S. and Canadian government programs and commercial nuclear power customers. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells software, hardware systems and semiconductor IP used to design, verify and simulate chips and complex electronic or mechanical systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy generates and sells electricity, natural gas and energy services across competitive U.S. power markets, anchored by a large nuclear fleet and an expanded flexible generation portfolio after Calpine. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers and manufactures AI and cloud data-center systems, networking gear, storage platforms and other advanced electronics for hyperscalers, OEMs and regulated industries. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent develops and manufactures optical networking components and systems, lasers, and engineered materials for datacenter, communications, and industrial customers. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a crypto trading, custody, staking, payments, and developer-infrastructure platform for consumers, institutions, and builders. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific operates power-dense data center campuses for high-density colocation and also mines bitcoin with its own fleet. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs high-speed connectivity chips, cables, optics, software, and IP used to move data inside AI, cloud, and hyperscale networks. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud applications and platform tools that help enterprises manage customer workflows, data, integration, analytics, collaboration, and AI-driven automation. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence sells embedded and cloud-connected conversational AI, voice, and automotive assistant software and services to automakers and transportation OEMs. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines across hemoglobinopathies, cardiometabolic disease, autoimmune disease, oncology, and regenerative medicine. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and related services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides GPU-accelerated cloud infrastructure, software, and support services for AI model training, inference, and related workloads. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides a cloud-native software platform for monitoring, analytics, incident response, and security across modern applications and infrastructure. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell designs, manufactures, sells and supports servers, storage, PCs, networking, software and services, with rising exposure to enterprise AI infrastructure. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells biological R&D services, autonomous laboratory systems, and data-generation tools to commercial and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates a global platform of data centers, private connectivity and related digital infrastructure used by enterprises, networks and cloud providers. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells cloud and self-managed software that helps enterprises search data, monitor systems, and detect threats on one common platform. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton makes electrical power equipment, aerospace systems, vehicle technologies and related software and services for data centers, utilities, buildings, industry and mobility markets. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact-center software that combines voice, digital engagement, workflow, analytics, and AI tools for enterprise customer service operations. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells utility-scale battery storage systems, operating services, and optimization software to utilities, developers, and large power users. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides advanced optical, electro-mechanical and electronic manufacturing services to OEMs serving communications, AI infrastructure, automotive, medical and sensing markets. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Google sells search and video advertising, cloud infrastructure and software, AI tools, subscriptions, and consumer devices. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid-cloud software, and related financing and services for private, edge, and AI infrastructure. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. TuHURA Biosciences is a clinical-stage oncology company developing immunotherapies intended to overcome resistance to cancer immunotherapy, led by IFx-2.0 and TBS-2025. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power-backed digital infrastructure, including AI data center campuses, cloud services, and bitcoin-related compute across the United States and Canada. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering services and workflow software for model training, evaluation, annotation, media intelligence, and healthcare data extraction. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ builds quantum computers and sells cloud access, on-premises systems, and adjacent quantum networking and security solutions to commercial, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN develops and operates power-dense data centers and GPU compute infrastructure for AI workloads, while also monetizing part of its power base through Bitcoin mining. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain services for OEMs, with growing exposure to AI data center racks, power, cooling, networking, healthcare, and other complex hardware programs. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric air taxis, operates charter services through Blade, and is preparing commercial passenger, aircraft sales, and government aviation offerings. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos designs and manufactures unmanned aircraft, propulsion systems, satellite ground software, microwave electronics, and related defense systems for U.S. and allied customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures optical and photonic products such as lasers, transceivers, switching systems, and subsystems used in AI data centers, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life insurance directly to consumers in the U.S. and Europe through digital workflows and licensed insurance carriers. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs low-power programmable chips and related software used for control, connectivity, security, and sensor-bridging across communications, computing, industrial, automotive, and consumer systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye designs automotive vision chips, software, mapping, and autonomy systems that help automakers ship driver-assistance and self-driving features. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger and Threads, monetizing consumer attention mostly through advertising while investing heavily in AI infrastructure, business messaging and smart glasses. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells high-performance power-management semiconductors and modules used in AI servers, storage and computing, automotive, communications, industrial and consumer systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell is a fabless semiconductor company supplying custom silicon, optical interconnect, switching and networking chips for AI, cloud and communications infrastructure. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, business applications, developer tools, security products, operating systems, gaming content, and advertising services to enterprises and consumers. MSTR Strategy Inc. Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and related services while using public-market financing to hold bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, radio-frequency, microwave and optical semiconductor products used in data center, communications, industrial and defense systems. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs, manufactures and sells memory and storage products including DRAM, NAND, NOR, high-bandwidth memory and data-center solid-state drives. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius operates an AI cloud platform selling GPU compute, storage, orchestration and inference tooling, with additional optionality from autonomous mobility and education assets. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and NextEra Energy Resources, combining a fast-growing regulated Florida utility with a large U.S. power, storage, transmission and gas infrastructure development platform. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare operates a global edge network that helps organizations secure, connect, and run applications closer to users through one cloud-based control plane. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox sells imaging hardware, AI imaging software, teleradiology services, and healthcare IT tools aimed at expanding access to lower-cost clinical imaging. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow provides cloud software that helps enterprises automate, govern, and execute workflows across IT, employee, customer, security, and other operations. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, data-management software, and cloud data services that help customers run, protect, and move data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Intellia develops in vivo CRISPR-based gene-editing therapies for hereditary angioedema, ATTR amyloidosis, and other severe diseases. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera develops and sells cell-free DNA and genetic testing services across oncology, women's health, transplant monitoring, and rare disease diagnostics. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA sells accelerated computing chips, AI systems, networking and software used by cloud providers, enterprises, developers, gamers and automotive customers. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops advanced fission power plants, nuclear fuel-cycle capabilities, and radioisotope production assets aimed at data centers, industrial users, and other large energy customers. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs, manufactures, and sells power semiconductors, sensing devices, and mixed-signal chips used in automotive, industrial, and AI-infrastructure systems. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells database software, enterprise applications, cloud infrastructure, and related hardware and services to enterprises, governments, and developers. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, stereo cameras, and perception software for robotics, industrial automation, automotive, and smart infrastructure customers. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity products, subscriptions, and services spanning network, cloud, security operations, AI, and identity for enterprises, governments, and service providers. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software for building, orchestrating, and governing automations, software robots, testing workflows, and AI-driven business processes. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops autonomy software, avionics, UAV engineering services, and precision-manufactured components for defense and industrial customers. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates an Earth-imaging satellite fleet and sells geospatial data, tasking, analytics, and software to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software that integrates data, AI models, and operational workflows for governments and commercial enterprises, plus related deployment services. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies develops photonic packaging, optical engines, light sources and related modules for AI systems and hyperscale data-center networking. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing prime-editing therapies for genetic diseases plus partnered cell therapy programs. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services is a specialized infrastructure contractor that designs, builds, upgrades and maintains electric power, communications, generation and underground utility systems. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave builds quantum computing systems, cloud access, software tools, and services focused on optimization workloads for commercial, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. builds photonic quantum and edge-AI hardware, thin-film lithium niobate chip foundry services, and secure communications products for commercial and government customers. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat develops U.S.-made unmanned aerial and maritime systems plus related control software for defense, government, and public safety users. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. Red Violet provides identity intelligence, fraud, verification, and investigative software and data solutions to enterprises, public-sector users, and real estate professionals in the United States. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors, sells on-premises quantum systems, and provides cloud access to those systems for research, government, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot operates U.S. bitcoin mining sites, engineering businesses, and large powered campuses that it is increasingly positioning for AI and data-center leasing. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and mission operations for commercial, civil, and national security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Relay Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing precision small-molecule medicines in cancer and genetic disease, led by zovegalisib and its Dynamo discovery engine. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips, silicon IP, and security technologies used in AI, data-center, and other high-performance computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops service and light industrial robots and sells related Robots-as-a-Service, leasing, support, and data services to hospitality, retail, logistics, healthcare, and manufacturing customers. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion is a clinical-stage biotech that uses its Recursion OS, automated labs, and proprietary data to discover and develop medicines internally and with partners. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells subscription cybersecurity software that helps enterprises detect, prevent, investigate, and respond to threats across endpoint, cloud, identity, and adjacent AI-era environments. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells computational molecular design software to life sciences and industrial customers and also uses the platform in partnered and proprietary drug discovery programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs and operates autonomous delivery and indoor service robots, plus related software and data services, for delivery platforms, merchants, and healthcare customers. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related software used in communications, data centers, automotive, industrial and aerospace systems. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Designs and manufactures AI servers, storage, networking, and integrated data-center rack systems with cooling and deployment support. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale designs and licenses small modular nuclear reactor technology and related plant services for utilities, industrial users, and project developers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud-based data platform for storing, processing, governing, sharing, and building analytics and AI applications on enterprise data across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys provides chip design software, semiconductor IP, simulation and analysis tools, cloud delivery, and related engineering services for semiconductor and systems teams. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice, conversational, and agentic AI software that enterprises embed into restaurant ordering, automotive experiences, customer service, and other workflows. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global builds and operates a satellite constellation that sells weather, radio-frequency, aviation, and mission-service data to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem provides software, services, and edge hardware that help owners and operators monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds end-to-end warehouse automation systems with robots, software, maintenance, and operating services for large distribution networks. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus combines molecular testing, clinician workflow software, and governed clinical data products to support precision medicine for providers and drug developers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. nuclear and dispatchable gas power plants and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale markets and bilateral contracts. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures and sells battery electric vehicles, energy storage systems, solar products and related software and services. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures advanced chips for semiconductor designers and provides the packaging and process support used in many leading AI processors. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience makes synthetic DNA products, sequencing workflow tools, and antibody discovery services for research, diagnostics, therapeutics, and industrial customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density modular power components and power systems used in AI and enterprise computing, industrial equipment, telecom, transportation, aerospace and defense. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, builds, installs and services power, cooling, rack and monitoring systems used in data centers, communications networks and other mission-critical facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra generates and sells electricity and natural gas through a large U.S. fleet of nuclear, gas, solar, coal, and storage assets plus retail power brands led by TXU Energy. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops, owns and operates U.S. data center campuses for AI and high-performance computing hosting plus bitcoin mining, anchored by power-advantaged brownfield sites. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler provides cloud-delivered zero trust security that inspects and controls enterprise access to internet, SaaS, private applications, data, and emerging AI traffic.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: