Next Arc Research

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

Growth Potential: Where could this company be in 5 years? Scores range from flat/declining to 10x+.
Risk Profile: 10 weighted factors — technology maturity, regulatory exposure, capital needs, macro sensitivity, and more.
AI Advantage: Not "does this company use AI?" but "does AI make this company harder to compete with?"
Competitive Position: Who are the real threats, and where are the durable edges?
Week-over-Week Trends: How are scores shifting? What's improving or deteriorating before it hits the headlines?

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

AI & Machine Learning infrastructure and applications
Biotechnology and AI-driven drug discovery
Quantum computing and advanced semiconductors
Robotics and automation
Fintech and crypto infrastructure
Cloud computing and SaaS platforms
Energy transition and climate tech

Currently covering 120 symbols:

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks

Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

View Sample PDF

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks

Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

View Sample PDF

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks

Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

View Sample PDF

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks

Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.

View Sample PDF

Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

Understanding the landscape: The growth buckets, alignment scores, and forecast 2030 opportunity help readers form a high-level view of where each company or network sits in the AI-era stack — who is structurally advantaged, who faces hard limits, and which segments (chips, robotics, biotech, crypto infrastructure) are accelerating or stagnating.
Spotting movement week-to-week: Many people scan the weekly score changes, risk shifts, and narrative updates to identify companies where something meaningful changed — a new disclosure, a roadmap shift, a competitive surprise, or a macro factor the model picked up. It’s a quick way to know which names might deserve a closer look.
Comparing peers within a theme: The interactive screener and the CSV tables let readers compare companies inside the same category (e.g. GPU vendors, cloud platforms, agentic AI, biofoundry automation, blockspace networks) to see how their growth/risk profiles differ and how the “story” changes over time.
Interpreting ETFs and thematic exposure: For those who invest mostly through ETFs, the coverage list and sector tags can help clarify which underlying companies drive exposure to specific themes — and where concentration, correlation, or dependence on a small number of AI-era winners might exist.
Deep-dive reasoning: The long-form sections (thesis, critique, growth reasoning, risk commentary, ecosystem momentum, comparative advantage, and ELI5 explanations) give readers a structured narrative to reflect on: what is driving a company’s potential and what could undermine it. People often use these as prompts for their own due-diligence questions.
Tracking themes and developing conviction: Some readers use the trend commentary, risk dimension breakdowns, and scenario narratives to build a mental model of where AI-era value is likely to concentrate over the next several years — not as price forecasts, but as a way to reason about technological direction, market structure, and strategic positioning.

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 1

Model Upgrade

We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.

February 2026 - Week 4

Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings

Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.

Contrast Pair Stories

New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.

February 2026 - Week 3

AI Industrial Alignment in the UI

AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.

February 2026 - Week 2

Deeper Last Economy Analysis

Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.

February 2026 - Week 1

Software Value Analysis

Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.

January 2026 - Week 3

Deeper Pre-Analysis

Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.

January 2026 - Week 2

No updates

No major user-facing changes this week

January 2026 - Week 1

M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis

Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.

December 2025 - Week 4

Enhancements

We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.

Additions & Modifications

Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.

December 2025 - Week 3

Enhancements

We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.

Additions

Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).

December 2025 - Week 2

Model Upgrade

We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.

Additions

Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).

December 2025 - Week 1

M.I.N.D. Framework Integration

Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).

Additions

Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).

Bug fixes

Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.

November 2025 - Week 3

Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.

The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.

November 2025 - Week 2

Adding Crypto

Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL

November 2025 - Week 1

Adding Context

Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly

October 2025

Initial Launch

First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk

Development candidates:

Additional companies to cover
Plots of company growth trends over time
Allocation worksheet
Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free:

Top 5 AI-Leveraged Companies (Free PDF) — This week's five highest-ranked companies, with growth scores, risk profiles, and what gives each one an edge
Weekly Update Preview (Sample Analysis) — The week's biggest moves across all ~120 companies — themes, sector shifts, winners, and risk changes
Builder Tier Sample PDF — A complete company report showing every dimension of the analysis (as of October 2025)
Breakout Candidates (Free) — Companies passing our structural screen for breakout potential, with timing signals, failure modes, and the evidence behind each pick

Introduction

Methodology

Coverage

Patreon Tiers

Free$0/month

Reader$5/month

Allocator$12/month

Builder$36/month

Update Cadence

Using the Data

Changelog

About

The Framework

The Technology

The Creator

Contact

Free Resources

Free
$0/month

Reader
$5/month

Allocator
$12/month

Builder
$36/month