Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 123 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures high-speed optical transceivers, lasers, and cable broadband networking gear used in AI data centers and communications networks. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, related flight systems, and operating capabilities for commercial and defense use cases. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software, development tools, and industry applications for large commercial and government organizations. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells software, edge hardware, and support that turn video, sensor, and data feeds into searchable security and operational workflows for government and large enterprises. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs sells connectivity chips, modules and tightly coupled software that help hyperscalers and system makers build and qualify rack-scale AI infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI chips and software used in cameras, vehicles, robots, and other vision systems. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips, networking silicon and supporting software for data center, client, embedded and gaming markets. AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. Amkor is a semiconductor packaging and test manufacturer whose portfolio includes SWIFT, S-SWIFT, S-Connect and TSV-based packages for computing, communications and automotive chips. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops silicon-anode lithium-ion battery cells and related design services for aerospace, defense, drone, and electric mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates global consumer retail and marketplace platforms, AWS cloud infrastructure, and advertising and subscription services, with emerging satellite connectivity assets. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Builds Ethernet switching, routing, and network software used in AI data centers, cloud networks, campuses, and wide-area networks. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates power-dense data center campuses for artificial intelligence, cloud, and related compute workloads in North America. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides advertising software that helps advertisers acquire customers and helps publishers monetize app and connected-TV inventory. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Apus Health is a pre-revenue hybrid public company with minority economics in a clinical-stage osteoarthritis pain program and a digital-asset treasury, custody, and token ecosystem through MindWave. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm develops and licenses CPU architecture, compute subsystems, and related software tools, and is expanding into data-center silicon. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography, metrology and inspection systems, software and services used by chipmakers to manufacture semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network that connects ordinary smartphones through its satellites, gateways, and carrier partnerships. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops the Aurora Driver self-driving system and related services for heavy trucks and future autonomous mobility use cases. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment develops and delivers autonomous aircraft, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems, mission software, directed energy, and related defense technologies for U.S. and allied customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies custom AI semiconductors, networking silicon, and infrastructure software used across hyperscale and enterprise compute environments. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai provides AI software and related services for defense, national security, and trade-and-travel workflows. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing precision genetic medicines using base editing for blood and liver-related genetic diseases. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly Network sells handheld ultrasound probes, cloud software, AI-enabled workflow tools, and embedded ultrasound chip licenses for healthcare use. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky operates a low-earth-orbit imaging constellation and sells real-time geospatial intelligence, analytics, and monitoring subscriptions mainly to government and defense customers. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. Designs, manufactures and services nuclear components, fuel and related systems for U.S. government programs and commercial nuclear operators. CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI processors and systems and sells cloud inference and training capacity to model labs, enterprises, hyperscalers, and sovereign customers. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells software, silicon IP, and hardware that help semiconductor and systems companies design, verify, and simulate products from chips to full physical systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy generates and sells electricity, natural gas and related energy products and services, anchored by the largest nuclear fleet in the United States. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures and services data-center hardware platforms and other complex electronics for hyperscalers, OEMs and customers in aerospace, industrial and healthtech markets. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent develops and manufactures photonics products including lasers, optical networking components, transceivers, modules, systems, and engineered materials for datacenter, communications, and industrial markets. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a regulated crypto trading, custody, and onchain infrastructure platform for consumers, institutions, and developers. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific builds and operates U.S. power-secured data center campuses for high-density AI colocation while still running smaller digital asset mining and hosting operations during the transition. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs high-speed connectivity chips, cables, optical interconnects and related software used in AI, cloud and hyperscale data infrastructure. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software for customer relationship management, collaboration, data integration, analytics, and AI-enabled enterprise workflows. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence AI sells white-label automotive voice assistant software, connected services, and related tools that automakers and Tier 1 suppliers embed into in-car experiences. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines, led by CASGEVY and a broader pipeline in in vivo editing, cell therapy, regenerative medicine, and partnered RNA therapeutics. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike provides cloud-native cybersecurity software and services for endpoints, identities, cloud workloads, data, and security operations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides AI-focused cloud infrastructure, storage, networking, and model-development tools for AI labs, startups, and enterprises. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides a cloud-native observability and security platform that helps enterprises monitor applications, infrastructure, AI workloads, and incidents. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies designs, manufactures, sells and supports enterprise infrastructure, PCs, storage, networking and related services worldwide. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells autonomous lab capacity, biological R&D services, and automation systems to pharmaceutical, government, and industrial biotech customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates carrier-neutral data centers and private interconnection infrastructure used by enterprises, clouds, networks and AI workloads. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells enterprise search, observability, and security software plus cloud services built on its Elasticsearch platform. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton makes electrical power equipment, thermal systems, software and aerospace controls used in data centers, utilities, buildings, industry and aircraft. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 provides cloud contact-center software, AI automation, and usage-based telephony for enterprise customer-service operations. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Provider of utility-scale battery storage systems, operational services, and asset optimization software for utilities, developers, and other power-asset owners. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services plus customized optics and glass fabrication for OEMs of complex communications, compute, automotive, medical, laser, and sensor products. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet operates Google’s search, advertising, video, mobile, cloud, productivity, and AI platforms, and sells related enterprise services. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid cloud software, services, and financing solutions for commercial and public-sector customers. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing immuno-oncology therapies aimed at overcoming resistance to checkpoint inhibitors, led by IFx-2.0 in Phase 3 and TBS-2025 in AML. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops, finances, and operates power assets, AI-ready data centers, cloud platforms, and Bitcoin infrastructure in North America. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, observability, and workflow solutions for AI builders, enterprises, and government customers. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers and sells access through direct systems, cloud services, and adjacent networking, security, and sensing offerings. IREN IREN Limited IREN builds and operates power-secured data centers and GPU cloud infrastructure for AI workloads, while also running a Bitcoin mining business. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil is a global manufacturing and engineering partner that helps large customers design, source, build, and deploy complex electronics and AI infrastructure hardware. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, plans to operate premium air-taxi networks, and intends to sell aircraft and support services to partners. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos designs and produces unmanned aircraft, propulsion systems, missile and microwave hardware, and satellite ground software for defense and national security customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum makes optical components, modules, and systems used in AI and cloud data centers, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and life insurance directly to consumers through an AI-heavy digital carrier and agency stack in the U.S. and Europe. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs and sells low-power programmable logic chips plus related software and services for compute, communications, industrial, automotive, and embedded systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye designs automotive vision chips, mapping software, and driver-assistance and autonomous-driving systems for global automakers and mobility operators. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger and related AI products, monetizing attention with digital advertising while investing heavily in messaging, smart glasses, and AI infrastructure. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells high-performance power management semiconductors and modules used in enterprise data, storage, automotive, communications, industrial, and consumer systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs fabless data infrastructure semiconductors, including custom AI silicon, switching, optics and connectivity chips for cloud and networking customers. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, developer tools, business applications, operating systems, security, and related AI services to enterprises, developers, and consumers. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy holds bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset and sells enterprise analytics, data governance, and AI workflow software. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF, optical and networking semiconductors for data center, industrial and defense, and telecommunications applications. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND, NOR, HBM and SSD products used in AI data centers, PCs, mobile devices, autos and industrial systems. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius builds AI cloud infrastructure and software for model training, inference and production deployment, with smaller adjacencies in robotics and education. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. Owns Florida Power & Light and NextEra Energy Resources, combining a regulated Florida utility franchise with a national power, storage and infrastructure development platform. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare provides internet infrastructure services that help customers secure, connect, accelerate, and run applications across a global edge network. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops digital imaging systems and sells related cloud, AI, teleradiology, marketplace, and health IT services to healthcare providers. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells a cloud software platform that helps enterprises automate, govern, and audit workflows across IT, employee, customer, risk, and security operations. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise data storage systems, data management software, and related cloud and support services across on-premises, hybrid-cloud, and public-cloud environments. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing one-time CRISPR-based gene-editing medicines for hereditary angioedema, transthyretin amyloidosis, and other severe diseases. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera develops and commercializes genetic and cell-free DNA testing across oncology, women’s health, organ transplant monitoring, and rare disease. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing chips, systems, networking and software used across AI data centers, gaming, workstations and automotive. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo is developing and plans to build, own, and operate advanced nuclear power plants while also pursuing fuel-cycle and radioisotope businesses. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi sells power and sensing semiconductors for automotive, industrial, and AI data center applications, using its manufacturing footprint and qualification-heavy design wins to capture system content. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells database software, enterprise applications, cloud infrastructure, hardware, and related services to enterprises, governments, and healthcare organizations. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, vision products, and perception software for industrial automation, robotics, automotive, and smart-infrastructure deployments. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks provides network, cloud, identity, security operations, and advisory cybersecurity products and services to enterprise and public-sector customers. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software that lets organizations build, run, and govern workflows across AI agents, robots, people, and business applications. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops defense-focused autonomy software, avionics, UAV engineering services, and precision-manufactured aerospace and weapon-system components. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates Earth-imaging satellites and sells recurring geospatial data, analytics, and satellite services to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software subscriptions and related services that help government and commercial customers integrate data, build workflows, and operate AI-enabled decisions. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies develops optical engines, light-source products, and custom optical modules for AI systems and hyperscale data centers using its Optical Interposer platform. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Clinical-stage gene editing company developing one-time therapies for genetic diseases and licensing selected Prime Editing programs to partners. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services provides engineering, construction, maintenance and related infrastructure services for utility, power generation, large-load, communications, pipeline and energy customers. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops annealing and gate-model quantum computing systems, cloud access, and related software and services for commercial, government, and research users. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. QCi builds photonic quantum and AI hardware, cloud-accessed quantum services, and photonic chip foundry, packaging, and subsystem solutions for commercial and government customers. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat develops and sells U.S.-made drones, uncrewed surface systems, and related robotic technologies for defense, government, and public safety users. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells identity intelligence software and data used for fraud prevention, identity verification, compliance, investigations, and agent safety. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and sells cloud and on-premises quantum computing systems to government, research, and commercial customers. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot Platforms develops and operates bitcoin mining sites, electrical engineering businesses, and power-linked data center infrastructure in the United States. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and mission operations to commercial, civil, defense, and national security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech using its Dynamo discovery engine to develop small-molecule medicines for genetically defined cancers and genetic diseases. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips, silicon IP and patent licenses used in AI, data center and client computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops and deploys service and industrial robots, Robotics-as-a-Service offerings, and robotics data services for commercial and industrial customers. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Clinical-stage TechBio company using an AI-native discovery stack to build its own drug pipeline and partnered discovery programs. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne provides AI-driven cybersecurity software that protects endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data pipelines, and security operations through its Singularity platform. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells computational molecular discovery software and uses the same platform to generate collaboration, milestone, royalty, and equity upside from drug discovery programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous sidewalk delivery robots and, through Diligent, indoor hospital logistics robots. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs and sells MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related tools used in communications, datacenter, automotive, industrial, aerospace and other electronic systems. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Designs, manufactures, and deploys servers, storage, networking, and rack-scale AI systems with cooling, management software, and support for cloud, enterprise, and edge customers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale Power develops small modular reactor technology plus licensing, training, and plant services for utilities, industrial users, and other large power customers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud data platform for storing, processing, sharing, and governing enterprise data and AI workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells chip-design software, semiconductor interface and foundation IP, hardware-assisted verification systems, and engineering simulation software. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and agentic AI software that lets enterprises build and run conversational automation across phones, chat, kiosks, vehicles, TVs, and other devices. SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SpaceX designs, manufactures, launches, and operates rockets, spacecraft, satellite broadband networks, and AI services for consumer, enterprise, and government customers. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global builds, owns, and operates a satellite constellation that sells weather, radio-frequency, aviation, and space-services data products to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, edge controls, and services used to commission, monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic designs, builds, and services large-scale automated warehouse systems that combine robotics, software, and operating services for major distribution networks. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus AI sells molecular diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and governed health-data products to providers and life sciences customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates nuclear and fossil power assets in the U.S. and sells electricity, capacity, ancillary services, and contracted power primarily into PJM and to large-load customers. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, energy storage systems, solar products and software-enabled transport and energy services. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures chips for fabless semiconductor and system companies and is the leading outsourced producer of advanced logic chips and advanced packaging. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, next-generation sequencing tools, and antibody discovery solutions for biopharma, diagnostics, industrial, agricultural, and research customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs, manufactures, and licenses high-density modular power components and power systems used in computing, industrial, vehicle, telecom, and aerospace and defense applications. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv supplies power, cooling, rack, monitoring, and lifecycle service infrastructure used in data centers, communications networks, and other mission-critical facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is a U.S. competitive power company that owns generation assets, including nuclear and natural gas plants, and sells electricity and natural gas to retail and commercial customers. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops, owns, and operates U.S. digital infrastructure campuses for AI and high-performance computing hosting, with residual bitcoin mining operations. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler provides cloud-delivered security and access controls that sit inline between users, branches, workloads, data, and applications for enterprises and public-sector customers.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: