Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 120 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AOI designs and manufactures optical networking lasers, transceivers and broadband access equipment for hyperscale datacenter, cable, telecom and fiber access customers. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, operating infrastructure, and related services for urban air mobility, commercial, government, and defense customers. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI application software, related platform software, and services to large enterprises and government organizations. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells secure edge hardware, video and sensor management software, and related support for government, law enforcement, and large-enterprise surveillance workflows. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs semiconductor-based connectivity products and hardware-linked management software used in AI and cloud infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI vision chips and software used in automotive, security, robotics, drones and edge infrastructure devices. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Designs and sells CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips, networking products and software for data center, client, gaming and embedded markets. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-performance lithium-ion batteries for drones, aviation, defense, and other weight-sensitive mobility markets. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates online and physical stores, a third-party marketplace, cloud infrastructure services, subscriptions, and advertising services for consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and advertisers. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells Ethernet switching and routing hardware, network software, and support services for AI, cloud, data center, campus, branch, and wide-area networking. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates power-dense data center campuses and cloud infrastructure for AI, cloud, networking, and legacy hosting workloads in North America. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides AI-driven advertising, monetization, measurement, and connected-TV software for app developers, web merchants, and publishers. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Apus Health is a micro-cap public company built around LT-100/Apitox for osteoarthritis pain and, after its MindWave merger, digital-asset treasury infrastructure ambitions. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm develops and licenses CPU architectures and related semiconductor IP, then earns royalties when Arm-based chips ship across mobile, cloud, automotive and edge devices. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography systems, related software, metrology and lifecycle services that chipmakers use to manufacture advanced semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs, manufactures, and plans to operate low-Earth-orbit satellites that connect ordinary smartphones to carrier and government networks. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops and commercializes the Aurora Driver, a self-driving system for freight trucking that it aims to scale into a driver-as-a-service network. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment designs and builds autonomous aircraft, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems, and mission software for U.S. and allied defense customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs custom and merchant semiconductors, AI networking hardware, and infrastructure software used by hyperscalers, enterprises, OEMs, and service providers. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai sells AI software, analytics, and engineering solutions for defense, national security, customs, travel, trade, and other regulated workflows. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech developing base-editing genetic medicines for sickle cell disease and liver-targeted rare genetic disorders. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly Network develops handheld ultrasound probes, cloud workflow software, and partner licensing tools for clinical imaging. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky sells subscription satellite imagery, analytics software, and sovereign space-based intelligence solutions to government, defense, and commercial customers. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT makes nuclear reactor components and fuel for defense programs, provides commercial nuclear services, and supplies medical isotopes. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells chip-design software, semiconductor IP, emulation hardware, and system analysis tools used to design semiconductors and complex electronic systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy is a large U.S. power producer and energy supplier that sells nuclear, gas, geothermal, hydro, wind and solar generation plus retail and commercial energy solutions. CLS Celestica Inc. Designs, engineers and manufactures data-center, communications and other advanced-technology hardware while managing supply chains for major cloud and OEM customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent makes photonic components, optical networking products, lasers, semiconductor materials, and related systems used in data centers, communications, industrial equipment, and electronics. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates crypto trading, custody, stablecoin, payments, developer, and emerging multi-asset brokerage products for consumers, institutions, and businesses. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific operates U.S. powered campuses that are being converted from bitcoin mining sites into high-density colocation data centers for AI workloads while still mining bitcoin. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo sells high-speed connectivity chips, cables, optical modules, retimers, IP and telemetry software used in AI, cloud and hyperscale data infrastructure. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software for customer relationship management, analytics, collaboration, data management, and workflow automation to enterprises worldwide. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence sells embedded and cloud-connected conversational AI software, voice assistants, and related services to automakers and mobility OEMs. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines and, with Vertex, commercializes CASGEVY while advancing in vivo editing, cell therapy, siRNA, and regenerative medicine programs. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, identities, cloud workloads, data, and security operations for enterprises and governments. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides AI cloud infrastructure, software, and managed services for AI labs, enterprises, and hyperscalers running training and inference workloads. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides a cloud-native software platform for observability, security, and developer operations across modern applications and infrastructure. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies designs and sells PCs, servers, storage, networking, software and related services for enterprises and consumers worldwide. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks provides cell-engineering services, biological data products, and autonomous laboratory systems for biopharma, industrial, agriculture, food, technology, and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix owns and operates a global carrier-neutral data center and interconnection platform used by enterprises, clouds, networks and digital infrastructure providers. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells cloud and self-managed software for enterprise search, observability, and security built on Elasticsearch and Kibana. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton sells mission-critical electrical power distribution, power quality, aerospace, vehicle and electrified mobility components and systems across data center, utility, industrial, commercial, residential and aerospace markets. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact center software plus AI, workflow, routing, telephony, and analytics tools for enterprise customer service and sales teams. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells utility-scale battery energy storage systems, operational services, and optimization software to utilities, developers, and power producers. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet is a precision manufacturing partner for complex optical, electro-mechanical and electronic products used in communications, data centers, automotive, medical and industrial markets. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet owns Google and generates most of its revenue from search and YouTube advertising, cloud infrastructure and software, subscriptions, app store fees, and devices. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, hybrid-cloud software, and financing/support services to business and public-sector customers. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company developing IFx-2.0, TBS-2025, and Delta Opioid Receptor-targeted programs to overcome resistance to cancer immunotherapy. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops power-backed digital infrastructure and specialized compute capacity for bitcoin mining, AI data centers, cloud, colocation, and managed services. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, annotation, and software-enabled workflow services to major technology, enterprise, and government customers. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computing systems, cloud access, and adjacent networking, sensing, and security products for commercial, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN owns and operates power-rich data centers in North America for AI cloud, colocation and bitcoin mining. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain services for complex hardware programs across data center infrastructure, healthcare, industrial, networking, and other end markets. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric air taxi aircraft, operates air mobility services through Blade, and plans to run and supply certified short-hop aerial transport networks. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos develops unmanned aircraft, propulsion and rocket systems, microwave and defense electronics, satellite ground systems, and related mission software for defense and national-security customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum sells optical and photonic components, lasers, transceivers, and switching systems used in AI data centers, telecom networks, industrial applications, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade is a digital insurer that sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life insurance in the U.S. and parts of Europe through its app, website, APIs, and licensed carriers. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs low-power programmable logic chips, related software, and security solutions used in communications, computing, industrial, automotive, and consumer systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops automotive vision chips, driver-assistance software, mapping, and autonomous-driving systems sold to automakers and mobility operators. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates a global family of social, messaging, and media apps monetized primarily through advertising, and also invests in AI infrastructure, smart glasses, and VR/AR hardware. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells power-management semiconductors and modules used in AI data-center, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell is a fabless semiconductor company that sells custom silicon, optical and electrical interconnect, switching, storage and connectivity chips for data center and communications infrastructure. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity and security software, developer tools, business applications, and gaming products to enterprises, developers, and consumers. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy operates a large bitcoin treasury and sells enterprise analytics, cloud, and governed AI software. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF, optical and mixed-signal semiconductor products for data center, telecommunications, industrial and defense applications. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs, manufactures and sells memory and storage semiconductors, including DRAM, NAND, NOR, HBM and SSD products for data center, mobile, client, automotive and embedded markets. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius builds AI cloud infrastructure, managed training and inference tools, and related services for developers and enterprises. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and NextEra Energy Resources, combining a large regulated Florida utility with a national power infrastructure platform spanning renewables, storage, gas, transmission and nuclear. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare runs a global cloud network that provides security, performance, networking, and developer-platform services for websites, applications, users, and AI workloads. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops digital tomosynthesis imaging systems and sells related AI, cloud, teleradiology, and healthcare IT solutions to healthcare providers and imaging partners. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that helps large organizations automate IT, employee, customer, security, and industry workflows on a shared enterprise platform. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp provides enterprise data storage systems, hybrid-cloud data services, and cloud-native storage offerings used to manage data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing in vivo and ex vivo CRISPR-based gene-editing therapies for hereditary angioedema, ATTR amyloidosis and other severe diseases. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera develops and sells cell-free DNA and genomic tests across oncology, women's health, organ health, and rare disease through its own labs and clinical workflow integrations. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing chips, AI systems, networking hardware and software used in data centers, gaming, robotics and autonomous machines. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops and plans to operate advanced nuclear power plants while building fuel-cycle and radioisotope businesses. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs and manufactures power and sensing semiconductors for automotive, industrial, infrastructure and selected computing applications. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells database software, enterprise applications, cloud infrastructure, hardware, and related services to enterprises, governments, and other organizations. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors and perception software, now augmented by camera vision assets, for industrial, robotics, automotive, and smart infrastructure customers. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity platforms and services that secure networks, clouds, security operations, endpoints, users, and identities for enterprises and governments. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software for building, running, and governing automations across applications using robots, AI agents, and workflow orchestration. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI sells defense and industrial autonomy software, avionics, engineering services, UAV-related systems, and precision-manufactured components. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet designs, builds, and operates Earth observation satellites and sells imagery, tasking, analytics, and geospatial data services to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software platforms that help government and commercial customers integrate data, run operational workflows, and deploy AI-driven applications in sensitive environments. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies develops optical engines, light sources, and related photonics modules used in AI systems and hyperscale data-center connectivity. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing prime-editing genetic medicines for rare diseases and partnered cell therapy programs. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services provides design, construction, repair and maintenance for electric power, generation, load center, communications and related infrastructure. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave builds quantum computing systems, cloud access, software, and services for enterprise, government, and research optimization workloads. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. builds photonic quantum and secure-communications products and provides thin-film lithium niobate foundry and photonics manufacturing services. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat designs and sells U.S.-made drones, controllers, and related robotic systems for defense, government, and public safety users. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. Red Violet sells cloud-based identity intelligence software and data products that help enterprises, public agencies, and real estate professionals verify people, reduce fraud, and investigate risk. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti develops superconducting quantum processors and systems, sells on-premises quantum hardware, and provides cloud access to its machines for government, research, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot operates bitcoin mining sites, electrical engineering businesses, and emerging artificial intelligence data-center infrastructure centered on large Texas power campuses. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, payloads, satellite components, and mission software to commercial, government, and national-security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing small-molecule medicines for cancer and genetic disease using its Dynamo discovery platform. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus designs memory interface chips, silicon IP and security technologies used in data centers, AI systems and other data-intensive devices. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops, assembles, deploys, and services commercial and industrial robots for hospitality, retail, manufacturing, and other operating environments. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company using an AI-driven discovery stack, automated labs, and pharma partnerships to discover and develop small-molecule medicines. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells subscription cybersecurity software that protects endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and security operations with AI-driven detection and response. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells computational chemistry and drug-discovery workflow software and also earns collaboration, milestone, and royalty upside from partnered and proprietary programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous delivery and service robots plus fleet software, data, and related workflow services. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs and sells precision timing semiconductors and related software used in communications, datacenter, automotive, industrial, mobile and other electronic systems. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Designs and manufactures servers, storage, networking, liquid-cooled AI racks, and related software and services for cloud, enterprise, telecom, and edge data center customers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale develops and licenses small modular reactor technology and related plant services for utilities, industrial customers, and power project developers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud data platform that lets enterprises store, process, share, and act on data and AI workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells chip-design software, semiconductor IP, hardware-assisted verification, and engineering simulation tools used to develop advanced semiconductors and complex systems. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and conversational AI software to enterprises, automakers, restaurants, and device makers, with growing exposure to workflow automation and commerce. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global operates a low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation that sells weather, aviation, RF intelligence, and space-services products to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem provides software, edge controls, and services that monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic designs and deploys automated warehouse systems that combine robotics, software, maintenance, and operating services for large retailers, wholesalers, and food distributors. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus sells molecular diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and de-identified data and analytics tools to providers and life sciences customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. nuclear and gas power plants and sells electricity, capacity and related services into wholesale markets and long-term bilateral contracts. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and monetizes software and services through a direct customer platform. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures semiconductor wafers and provides advanced packaging, mask, and related manufacturing services for chip and system companies. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, next-generation sequencing sample-preparation tools, and antibody discovery offerings for biotechnology, pharmaceutical, diagnostic, academic, and industrial customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density modular power components and power systems used in AI computing, industrial, communications, vehicle, and aerospace and defense applications. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, manufactures, installs, services, and monitors power, cooling, rack, and control infrastructure used in data centers, communications networks, and other uptime-critical facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is an integrated U.S. power producer and retail electricity provider that monetizes nuclear, gas, solar, storage, and customer load across competitive markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf owns, develops, and operates U.S. power-secured data center infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing while retaining opportunistic bitcoin mining. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler sells cloud-delivered zero trust security services that secure enterprise users, applications, devices, workloads, and AI activity.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: