Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 123 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AOI designs and manufactures optical transceivers, laser components, and broadband networking products for AI data centers, cable operators, telecom, and fiber access networks. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric and hybrid vertical-lift aircraft, launch operations, and related systems for urban air mobility and defense customers. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software, development tools, and related services for large commercial and public-sector organizations. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Provides video, sensor, and data-management software plus edge analytics and support services for government and enterprise security operations. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs connectivity semiconductors and embedded software that help hyperscalers and system manufacturers deploy AI and cloud infrastructure faster. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI semiconductors and supporting software for cameras, vehicles, robots, industrial systems and other vision-heavy devices. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs high-performance CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips and related software for data centers, PCs, embedded systems and gaming. AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. Amkor provides outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services, increasingly focused on advanced packages for AI, communications and automotive chips. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries for aviation, drones, defense, and other weight-sensitive mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates global online retail and marketplace services, digital advertising, subscription media, logistics, and AWS cloud and AI infrastructure. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista designs Ethernet switching and routing hardware plus EOS and CloudVision software for AI data centers, campus networks, and routing environments. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates power-dense data center campuses and colocation capacity for AI, cloud, networking, and blockchain workloads. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides AI-driven advertising, user acquisition, and monetization software that helps advertisers find customers and app publishers maximize revenue. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech with minority economics in Apitox and a MindWave digital-asset treasury software stack for corporate custody, controls, and yield workflows. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm designs and licenses CPU, GPU, NPU, subsystem, and related software IP, and is now extending that compute platform into data-center silicon. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML makes the lithography systems, software and services that chipmakers use to mass-produce advanced semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile is building a low-Earth-orbit cellular broadband network that connects standard smartphones through mobile operator partners for commercial and government use. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora builds and commercializes the Aurora Driver, an autonomous driving system for trucking sold through OEM, fleet, and logistics partners. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment develops autonomous aircraft systems, loitering munitions, counter-UAS, space, directed energy, cyber and electronic warfare products for U.S. and allied government customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductors and infrastructure software used in AI systems, enterprise data centers, networking, broadband, and other mission-critical technology stacks. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai provides secure AI software, analytics, and engineering solutions for defense, homeland security, travel, trade, and other regulated environments. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics develops base-editing genetic medicines for sickle cell disease and other severe genetic diseases. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly Network sells handheld ultrasound devices, cloud workflow software, and related services, and licenses its semiconductor-based ultrasound platform to partners. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky operates a low-earth-orbit satellite constellation and software stack that sells real-time imagery, geospatial analytics, and mission solutions to government and commercial customers. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT designs, manufactures and services nuclear components, fuel and engineering solutions for U.S. government, commercial nuclear and medical markets. CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras designs large-format AI processors and systems and sells AI training and inference capacity through cloud, partner channels, and on-premises deployments. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells chip-design software, verification hardware, semiconductor IP and engineering simulation tools used to design silicon and complex systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy owns a large U.S. generation fleet led by nuclear power and sells electricity, natural gas, and structured energy products to wholesale, commercial, public-sector, and residential customers. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers and manufactures cloud, networking and industrial hardware platforms and provides supply chain and lifecycle services. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent makes lasers, optical transceivers, photonic devices, modules, systems, and engineered materials used in AI networking, communications, and industrial manufacturing. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a regulated crypto and onchain financial platform spanning consumer trading, institutional brokerage and custody, stablecoin infrastructure, and developer tools. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific builds and operates power-rich data center campuses for AI colocation and still earns smaller revenue from bitcoin self-mining and hosted mining. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo sells high-speed copper and optical connectivity products, interconnect chips, and related IP used in AI, cloud, and hyperscale data infrastructure. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software and AI-enabled tools for sales, service, marketing, analytics, integration, data, and collaboration. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence sells white-label conversational AI, connected services, and engineering software to automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers for in-vehicle user experiences. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-based medicines using CRISPR/Cas9, SyNTase, siRNA, and cell therapy platforms, with CASGEVY as its first approved product. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike provides cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides GPU-accelerated cloud infrastructure, storage, networking, inference, and developer tooling for AI labs, enterprises, and software companies. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog sells cloud software for observability, security, and AI-era operations across applications, infrastructure, logs, users, and automated workflows. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies sells and supports PCs, servers, storage, networking, software, services and financing solutions, with growing exposure to enterprise AI infrastructure. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells automated biology R&D services, lab automation systems, and cloud-accessed autonomous lab workflows to commercial and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Operates a global data center and interconnection platform selling colocation, connectivity and related digital infrastructure services. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells search, observability, and security software through cloud subscriptions and self-managed deployments for enterprises and developers. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton sells power-management equipment, electrical systems, aerospace components, and related software and services for data centers, utilities, buildings, industry, and aircraft. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact-center software plus AI, workflow, and telephony tools for enterprise customer-service operations. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells grid-scale battery storage systems, embedded controls, recurring services, and optimization software to utilities, developers, independent power producers, and large power users. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet is a precision manufacturer that provides advanced optical packaging and complex electro-mechanical and electronic manufacturing services for communications, data center, automotive, medical, laser, and sensor customers. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet, the parent of Google, monetizes search and video attention, sells cloud and AI infrastructure, and offers software, subscriptions, and devices. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, software, cloud, and financing solutions, increasingly aimed at private AI and hybrid infrastructure. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company developing therapies intended to overcome resistance to checkpoint inhibitor cancer treatments. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops powered sites, data centers, and compute assets for AI infrastructure, cloud hosting, and Bitcoin mining in the U.S. and Canada. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, observability, and managed human-in-the-loop services for technology, enterprise, and government customers. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and sells related cloud access, networking, security, sensing, and support solutions to enterprise, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN builds and operates power-secured data-center campuses that sell GPU cloud compute for AI workloads and also generate revenue from Bitcoin mining. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, manufacturing, supply-chain, and infrastructure build solutions to large OEM customers across cloud, industrial, healthcare, automotive, and consumer markets. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, plans to operate premium air taxi networks, and also intends to sell aircraft and software-enabled services to partners. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos develops and manufactures defense drones, propulsion systems, space ground software, microwave electronics and related national-security systems. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures photonic components, lasers, modules, and optical systems used in AI data centers, cloud networks, telecom, industrial manufacturing, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life insurance directly to consumers through a digital, AI-heavy carrier stack in the U.S. and parts of Europe. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs low-power programmable logic chips and related tools for control, connectivity, security, and management functions across compute, communications, industrial, automotive, and embedded systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops chips, software, maps, and full systems that help automakers deliver driver assistance and autonomous driving. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta runs global social, messaging and media platforms monetized mainly by advertising, while investing heavily in AI infrastructure, business tools and wearables. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs power-management chips and modules that regulate and convert power inside AI servers, communications gear, vehicles, storage systems, industrial equipment, and consumer devices. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs data infrastructure semiconductors for AI and cloud systems, including custom silicon, switching, optical interconnect, storage and security chips. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, business applications, security and identity tools, developer platforms, devices, and digital services to enterprises and consumers. MSTR Strategy Inc. Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and operates a large bitcoin treasury funded through common equity, preferred equity, and debt. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. Designs and manufactures radio-frequency, analog, mixed-signal and optical semiconductors for data center, telecommunications, industrial and defense applications. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs and manufactures memory and storage products, including HBM, DRAM, NAND, NOR and SSDs, for data center, mobile, automotive, industrial and consumer markets. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius is an AI cloud infrastructure company that sells GPU compute, storage, managed services and production tooling, with smaller optionality from autonomous driving, education and equity stakes. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and a national energy infrastructure development platform spanning generation, storage, transmission and long-term contracted power assets. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare provides cloud-based networking, cybersecurity, Zero Trust, performance, and developer platform services through a global edge network. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops lower-cost medical imaging systems and sells related AI, cloud, teleradiology, marketplace, and healthcare IT services to healthcare providers. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells a cloud software platform that helps large organizations automate, govern, and execute work across IT, customer, employee, security, and business operations. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, data management software, cloud storage services, and support that help customers manage and protect data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Intellia develops CRISPR-based gene editing medicines, led by lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema and nex-z for transthyretin amyloidosis. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera sells genetic and molecular diagnostic tests across oncology, women's health, and organ health through regulated laboratory workflows. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing chips, systems, networking and software used across AI data centers, gaming, professional visualization and automotive markets. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo is a pre-revenue advanced nuclear company developing fast fission power plants plus related fuel fabrication, recycling, and radioisotope capabilities. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi makes power and sensing chips used in vehicles, factories, energy systems, and AI data-center power equipment. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells enterprise applications, database software, cloud infrastructure, hardware, and related services to large organizations worldwide. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, cameras, AI compute, and perception software for robotics, industrial automation, automotive, and smart-infrastructure deployments. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity products, subscriptions and services across network security, cloud security, security operations, AI security, identity and incident response. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise automation software that coordinates robots, AI agents, people, and applications across business workflows. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops autonomy software, avionics, UAV systems, precision-manufactured components, and engineering services for defense and industrial customers. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates Earth-imaging satellites and sells geospatial data, analytics, and satellite services to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software platforms that integrate data, govern workflows, and deploy AI into operational settings for government and commercial customers. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET develops photonic chips, light sources, optical engines and custom modules used to move data inside AI systems and hyperscale data centers. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing one-time gene-editing therapies using its Prime Editing platform for liver, blood, and other genetic diseases. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services provides design, installation, repair and maintenance services for electric power, communications, pipeline and related infrastructure customers. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops quantum computing systems, cloud access, software, and services for optimization and related computational workloads. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. develops photonic and quantum hardware, photonic components and subsystems, and foundry services for thin-film lithium niobate chips. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat develops U.S.-made drones, uncrewed surface vessels, and related robotic systems for defense, government, and public safety customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells identity intelligence, fraud prevention, due diligence, and agent-safety software and data solutions to enterprises, government users, and real-estate professionals. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and systems, sells on-premises quantum hardware, and provides cloud access to its quantum computers for government, research, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot operates bitcoin mining sites, electrical engineering businesses, and large powered campuses that it is converting into data center capacity for high-density computing customers. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and mission operations for commercial, civil, and national security customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Relay Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing precision small-molecule medicines, led by zovegalisib in breast cancer and vascular anomalies. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips, silicon IP, and security IP used in data center, client, and other computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics designs, deploys, and services commercial and industrial robots, increasingly shifting from hardware sales toward recurring automation contracts. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion is a clinical-stage biotech that uses its Recursion OS platform, proprietary data, automated labs, and partnerships to discover and develop medicines. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells subscription cybersecurity software for endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, security operations, and emerging AI-agent workflows through its Singularity platform. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells computational chemistry and molecular discovery workflow software to pharma, biotech, industrial, and academic customers while also monetizing collaborative and proprietary drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous robots for sidewalk delivery and hospital logistics, with software and connectivity layered on top. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs and sells MEMS-based precision timing semiconductors and related software for data center, communications, automotive, industrial, aerospace and consumer electronics. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs and sells servers, storage, rack-scale data center systems, cooling, management software, and related services for AI, cloud, enterprise, and edge workloads. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale develops small modular nuclear reactor designs and sells related licensing, engineering, training, and plant services to utilities, industrial users, and project developers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Cloud software company that helps enterprises store, process, govern, share, and use data and AI workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys provides chip-design software, semiconductor interface IP, verification hardware, and engineering simulation tools used to design and validate advanced electronic systems. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and agentic AI software that lets enterprises run conversational agents across phones, chat, cars, kiosks, drive-thrus, TVs, and other customer touchpoints. SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Designs, manufactures, launches, and operates rockets, satellite broadband networks, and AI products for consumer, enterprise, government, and defense customers. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global sells satellite-derived data and analytics and builds, launches, and operates small-satellite missions for government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, edge hardware, and services that monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds warehouse automation systems and embedded software that help large distributors move goods faster, more accurately, and with less labor. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus AI sells genomic diagnostics, clinical workflow software, and governed data products to physicians, health systems, and biopharma customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. nuclear and gas generation assets and sells electricity, capacity, ancillary services, and large-load power solutions. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs and sells electric vehicles, battery storage and energy systems, and layers software, charging and emerging autonomy services on top. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures chips for customer designs and provides advanced packaging and related services used across AI, mobile, automotive, and other logic markets. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, sequencing workflow tools, and antibody discovery solutions for biopharma, diagnostics, industry, academic, and government customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures modular power components and power systems that efficiently deliver power to compute, industrial, communications, transportation, and aerospace and defense equipment. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, builds, and services mission-critical power, cooling, rack, and control infrastructure used in data centers and communications networks. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is an integrated U.S. power producer and retail electricity supplier with a large fleet of gas, nuclear, solar, and battery assets across competitive markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops, owns, and operates U.S. power-secured data center campuses for AI and high-performance computing hosting alongside residual bitcoin mining. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler sells cloud-delivered zero trust security and secure access products to large enterprises, governments, and other complex organizations.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: