Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 125 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures high-speed optical transceivers, laser components, and broadband networking equipment used in AI data centers and communications networks. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric and hybrid vertical takeoff aircraft, aviation software and autonomy tools for commercial and defense markets. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise artificial intelligence software, development tools, and packaged applications to large commercial and government organizations. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI provides software, edge appliances, and support services that turn video, sensor, and enterprise data into operational intelligence for government and commercial security users. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs sells semiconductor connectivity chips, boards, modules, and embedded software that help cloud and AI servers move data, memory, and network traffic at rack scale. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI vision and compute chips plus related software for cameras, vehicles, robots and industrial systems. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs and sells CPUs, GPUs, adaptive chips, networking products and software for data center, client, gaming and embedded markets. AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. Amkor provides outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services for chipmakers and electronics companies, with growing exposure to advanced packaging for AI, networking and automotive programs. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Develops and sells high-energy silicon-anode lithium-ion battery cells for drones, defense aviation, and other weight-sensitive mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates a global consumer commerce and marketplace platform alongside AWS cloud, advertising, subscriptions, devices, media, and emerging connectivity services. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells Ethernet switching, routing and network software platforms plus support services for AI, cloud, campus and wide-area networks. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, owns, and operates power-backed data center campuses for AI, cloud, and other accelerated compute workloads. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides advertising, monetization, measurement, and connected-TV distribution software to advertisers, app publishers, marketers, and streamers. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Apimeds is a distressed micro-cap that combines residual LT-100 biopharma rights with MindWave digital-asset infrastructure, custody-governance tooling, and MindChain enterprise workflow projects. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU, GPU, NPU and system IP, related software tools, and now Arm-designed silicon to chipmakers, cloud providers and device makers. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML sells lithography, metrology and inspection systems, computational lithography software, and related services to semiconductor manufacturers. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile designs, builds and deploys satellites and ground infrastructure that let mobile operators extend cellular broadband directly to ordinary smartphones, with additional government uses. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora builds and deploys the Aurora Driver autonomous trucking system for freight carriers, shippers, and truck OEM partners. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment designs and produces autonomous defense systems, loitering munitions, counter-drone and directed-energy systems, plus related space, cyber and mission software for U.S. and allied customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators, Ethernet networking silicon such as Tomahawk and Jericho, and VMware infrastructure software to data-center and enterprise customers. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai builds and integrates mission-ready AI software, analytics, digital identity products, and related services for U.S. defense, intelligence, homeland security, trade and travel, and select commercial customers. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing base-editing genetic medicines for sickle cell disease and rare liver disorders. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld whole-body ultrasound probes, cloud workflow software, and embedded ultrasound technology to clinicians, health systems, and development partners. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky provides real-time satellite imagery, analytics, and monitoring software to government and commercial users through its own low Earth orbit constellation. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT manufactures nuclear fuel, nuclear components and related technical services for U.S. government and commercial nuclear customers. CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI processors and systems and sells on-premises hardware plus cloud inference and training services to AI labs, enterprises, research institutions, and governments. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells chip-design software, verification hardware, semiconductor IP, cloud delivery, and engineering simulation tools used to design chips and complex systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation generates electricity from a large U.S. fleet led by nuclear assets and sells power, natural gas and energy solutions to residential, commercial and industrial customers. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures and integrates data-center networking, compute, storage and rack-scale systems, while also serving aerospace, industrial and health technology customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent makes lasers, transceivers, optical components, modules, systems, and engineered materials used in AI datacenters, communications networks, and industrial applications. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates crypto trading, custody, stablecoin, payments, subscriptions, prime brokerage, and developer infrastructure for consumers, institutions, and developers. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific builds and operates U.S. data centers for AI and high-performance computing colocation while winding down legacy bitcoin mining and hosting. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs and sells high-speed copper and optical interconnect products, retimers, digital signal processors, chip-to-chip and memory-link silicon, IP, and related telemetry software for AI and data-center connectivity. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells cloud software, data, analytics, collaboration, and AI tools that help enterprises manage customer-facing workflows. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence sells white-label automotive AI assistant software, connected services, and related tools to automakers and suppliers. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops CRISPR-based gene and cell therapies, led by CASGEVY with Vertex and a pipeline spanning cardiovascular, autoimmune, oncology, and regenerative programs. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and related services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and emerging AI-agent activity. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Provides GPU-based cloud infrastructure, networking, storage, and software tools for AI training, inference, and production workloads. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides cloud software that helps technical teams monitor applications and infrastructure, analyze operational data, and secure modern systems. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell sells servers, storage, networking, PCs, services and financing, with enterprise AI infrastructure now the main growth engine. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells autonomous laboratory systems, cloud lab and data-generation services, and cell-engineering R&D services to pharma, biotech, academic, and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates carrier-neutral data centers and interconnection services that enterprises, cloud providers, networks and digital service providers use to colocate infrastructure and connect workloads. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells search, observability, and security software and cloud services that help enterprises ingest, query, analyze, monitor, and secure large data sets across cloud and hybrid environments. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton sells mission-critical electrical power distribution, power quality, cooling, aerospace and related software and services to data center, utility, industrial, commercial and aerospace customers. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 provides cloud software that helps enterprises run customer-service and contact-center interactions across voice and digital channels with embedded AI and workflow automation. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells grid-scale battery storage systems, long-term services, and optimization software used by utilities, developers, and large power customers. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet is a contract manufacturer for complex optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic products, with particular strength in data-center and communications photonics. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet operates Google’s search, advertising, video, cloud, productivity, and AI infrastructure businesses for consumers, advertisers, developers, and enterprises. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, private AI and cloud infrastructure, software, and related services to large organizations. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing immuno-oncology therapies aimed at overcoming resistance to checkpoint inhibitors in rare solid tumors and blood cancers. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power-backed digital infrastructure and compute assets spanning AI data centers, cloud services, and Bitcoin mining. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, trust-and-safety, and workflow enablement services and software to model builders and enterprises. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers and sells cloud access, systems, quantum networking, security, sensing, and U.S.-based foundry services to commercial and government customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN develops and operates power-backed data centers and GPU cloud infrastructure for AI training and inference, while also running bitcoin mining operations. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, supply chain, and manufacturing services for AI data-center infrastructure, healthcare, automotive, and other complex electronics programs. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, operates Blade passenger services, and provides autonomy and defense aviation capabilities. KDK Kodiak AI, Inc. Kodiak develops and supports an AI-powered autonomous driving system for long-haul trucking, industrial trucking, and defense vehicles. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos develops and produces defense, propulsion, microwave electronics, satellite ground software, space, and unmanned systems for U.S. and allied national security customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures optical and photonic components, modules, lasers, and switching systems used in AI data centers, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade is a digital insurer that sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life policies through its app and software-driven carrier stack. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor sells low-power programmable logic devices and platform firmware used to control, secure, and manage AI, communications, industrial, and embedded systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops automotive driver-assistance and autonomous-driving systems that combine EyeQ chips, mapping, software, and validation workflows for automakers and Tier 1 suppliers. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates global social, messaging and AI consumer apps, monetizing mainly through advertising while expanding into wearables, subscriptions and agent-driven commerce. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company that designs power management and analog chips and modules for AI/data center, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs data-infrastructure semiconductors for AI and cloud systems, including custom compute, switching, interconnect, storage and security chips. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, business applications, developer tools, security products, and consumer software and services. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and uses public-market financings to acquire and hold bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog, RF, optical and photonic semiconductors used in data center interconnect, telecom, industrial and defense systems. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs, manufactures and sells memory and storage chips for data center, PC, mobile, automotive and industrial systems. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius builds and operates AI cloud infrastructure, including GPU compute, storage and managed inference tooling, for AI developers and enterprises. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy combines Florida Power & Light, a fast-growing regulated utility, with a national platform for renewables, storage, gas, transmission and nuclear assets. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare runs a global edge network that delivers security, networking, performance, and developer services for businesses, governments, and internet applications. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops digital tomographic X-ray systems and sells related cloud workflow, teleradiology, AI imaging, and health IT services. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that helps large organizations automate IT, employee, customer, security, and risk workflows on a unified platform. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, data management software, and cloud data services that help companies run and protect workloads across on-premises and public-cloud environments. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing in vivo CRISPR gene-editing therapies for hereditary angioedema, transthyretin amyloidosis and other severe diseases. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera operates molecular testing and diagnostics businesses across oncology, women's health, organ health, and rare disease using cell-free DNA assays, regulated labs, and partner software channels. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms spanning AI chips, systems, networking and software for data center, gaming, professional visualization and automotive markets. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo is developing advanced fission power plants plus fuel fabrication, fuel recycling, and isotope-production capabilities for future power and nuclear-material customers. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi sells power and sensing semiconductors used in automotive, industrial, and AI data center systems. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells OCI cloud infrastructure, database software, NetSuite and other enterprise applications, Cloud@Customer systems, hardware, and related services. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster sells digital lidar sensors, cameras, AI compute, and perception software for robotics, industrial automation, automotive, defense, and smart infrastructure deployments. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks provides cybersecurity software, cloud services, appliances, and incident-response capabilities that help enterprises secure networks, clouds, identities, endpoints, and AI systems. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells software that helps enterprises automate and orchestrate workflows across applications, AI agents, robots, and people. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI develops edge autonomy software, avionics, UAV systems, engineering services, and precision-manufactured components for defense and industrial customers. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet builds and operates Earth-imaging satellite constellations and sells geospatial data, imagery, and software workflows to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software platforms and related services that connect data, logic, security, and operational workflows for government and commercial customers. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies designs optical engines, light-source products, and custom optical modules for AI systems and hyperscale data centers. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing prime editing-based genetic medicines for rare diseases and partnered ex vivo cell therapies. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, builds, upgrades and maintains electric power, communications and adjacent infrastructure, increasingly including power systems for large load centers. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops quantum computing systems, cloud access, software tools, and related services for commercial, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Develops quantum and photonic computing systems, photonic chips and components, secure communications products, and related foundry and advanced packaging services. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat develops and sells American-made unmanned aircraft, maritime systems, control stations, and autonomy software for defense, government, and public safety users. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells cloud-based identity intelligence, fraud, compliance, investigative, and safety solutions through IDI and FOREWARN. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and systems, sells on-premises quantum hardware, and provides cloud access to its machines. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot develops and operates large-scale data centers and bitcoin mining facilities, and provides in-house electrical engineering and fabrication services. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, space components, and mission operations for commercial, civil, and defense customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech developing small-molecule medicines for cancer and genetic diseases, led by zovegalisib in breast cancer and vascular anomalies. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory-interface chips and licensable silicon IP, including security and interconnect IP, for data center and other high-performance computing systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops, sells, rents, and supports service and industrial robots plus related data and software services for U.S. commercial and industrial customers. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company using its Recursion OS, automated labs, and compute stack to discover and develop small-molecule medicines and partnered drug programs. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells subscription cybersecurity software that protects endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, and related security data through its Singularity platform. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells molecular simulation, workflow software, and cloud tools for drug and materials discovery, and also earns collaboration, milestone, and royalty economics from partnered programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics builds and operates autonomous sidewalk delivery robots and hospital logistics robots, and is starting to sell fleet connectivity and data tools to other robotics companies. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs programmable silicon timing chips and synchronization software used in data-center, communications, automotive, industrial, aerospace, mobile and consumer electronics. SKHY SK hynix Inc. SK hynix manufactures DRAM, NAND and SSD products, with rising exposure to AI servers through HBM, server DRAM and enterprise storage. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro sells servers, storage, rack-scale AI infrastructure, management software, and deployment services for cloud, enterprise, and AI data centers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale Power develops and commercializes small modular nuclear reactor technology plus related engineering, manufacturing-readiness, and training solutions for power projects. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake sells a cloud-based data and AI platform that lets enterprises store, process, govern, share, and operationalize data workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells chip-design software, semiconductor IP, hardware-assisted verification systems, and engineering simulation tools used to build silicon and complex electronic systems. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells white-label voice and agentic AI software that helps enterprises run customer service, commerce, and embedded device interactions across voice, chat, and messaging. SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SpaceX sells reusable launch services, satellite broadband connectivity, and AI compute and software services to consumer, enterprise, and government customers. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire builds and operates a satellite constellation and sells weather, aviation, signal-geolocation, analytics, and satellite mission services to government and commercial customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, controls, edge hardware, and services that monitor, optimize, and operate solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds and deploys robotic warehouse automation systems and the software that orchestrates them for large distribution customers. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus provides oncology and hereditary diagnostic tests, de-identified clinical data products, and workflow software to physicians, health systems, and biopharma customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. power generation assets and sells electricity, capacity, and related services into wholesale markets and to large-load data-center customers. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles, battery energy storage systems and solar products, and monetizes them through software-enabled services delivered directly to customers. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures semiconductors to customer designs and provides leading-edge fabrication, advanced packaging, testing, and related design-enablement services. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA, next-generation sequencing tools, and antibody discovery and characterization products for research, diagnostics, therapeutics, industrial, and agricultural customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density power modules and systems for advanced compute and other demanding electronics, and also licenses related power-delivery patents. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, manufactures, and services power, cooling, monitoring, and integrated infrastructure systems for data centers and other mission-critical facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is an integrated competitive power company that owns a large U.S. generation fleet and sells electricity and natural gas to nearly 5 million retail customers. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops and operates power-backed data center campuses for AI and high-performance computing customers while still running a smaller legacy bitcoin-mining business. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler provides cloud-delivered cybersecurity that securely connects users, devices, workloads, branches, and applications for enterprises and government agencies.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

October 2026 - Week 2
Corrected Scenario CAGRs
  • We found and fixed a data error affecting the bull, base and bear scenario CAGRs. Our research engine had been recording these growth rates inconsistently — sometimes as a decimal (0.13) and sometimes as a percentage (13.0) — so a company with a 13% base case could be published as 1300%. Around one in five company records was affected, going back to late 2025.
  • The correction covers the full archive. Every historical period has been reprocessed, so the smoothed CAGR trends and the peer percentile rankings built on them are now calculated on a consistent basis. Because Breakout Potential draws 60% of its Market pillar from those CAGR percentiles, most companies have moved — in many cases substantially. The updated rankings are the correct ones; breakout ordering from prior weeks should not be relied on.
  • To stop it recurring, the analysis prompts now state the expected format explicitly with worked examples, and a new safeguard normalizes any mis-scaled value before it reaches a published page, CSV or score.
Rerating Signal Now Measures Valuation
  • The Rerating pill (Under Appreciated / Fair / Over Extended) was pointing the wrong way. It was built on the implied 5-year multiple, which is our own estimate of how far a company’s enterprise value could grow — an upside measure, not a price. Treating more upside as though it meant more expensive inverted the signal: the companies with the most modeled upside were labelled Over Extended, while Under Appreciated — which we describe as cheap relative to quality — was landing almost entirely on the largest mega-caps.
  • The signal now uses our valuation risk score, which is an actual measure of how richly a company is priced. The result is a far less size-driven read: the Under Appreciated group is now a genuine mix of large and small companies rather than a list of the biggest names on the platform. Expect meaningful changes to the pill on many company pages, and to the Under-Appreciated component of Breakout Potential.
  • Two internal factors used by our allocation research, quality-per-unit-of-valuation and the price-extension measure, were corrected the same way so every valuation-sensitive metric now draws on the same input.
Analyst Coverage Is Now Disclosed
  • A handful of the smaller companies we track have no published sell-side coverage at all. Our research engine was already recording that — marking those cases low confidence with no contributing firms — but the company page never showed it, so a section headed "Third Party Analyst Consensus" could present our own hypothesis as though it were the Street's view. Roughly 1.6% of all company records are affected, concentrated in a dozen micro-caps.
  • Those pages now carry a clear "No published analyst coverage" label at the top of the consensus section, on every tier. From the Allocator tier upward, each bull, base and bear case also lists the firms it draws on and the confidence behind it, so you can see exactly how much of the Street stands behind each scenario — and where a thin bear case simply reflects a stock almost everyone is positive on.
  • We also fixed two places where a legitimate zero was being hidden rather than shown: a 12-month price target we could not find now says so explicitly instead of the line quietly disappearing, and a scenario with a flat 0% CAGR now displays that figure.
March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: