Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 121 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures lasers, optical components, transceivers, and broadband networking equipment used in AI datacenters, cable networks, telecom, and fiber access. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric vertical takeoff aircraft, related aviation software, and adjacent commercial and defense services for short-range air mobility. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software and applications for building, deploying, and operating AI workflows for commercial and government customers. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI provides AI-driven video, sensor, and evidence-management software plus edge appliances for government and commercial security workflows. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs sells connectivity semiconductors and embedded software that help hyperscalers and OEMs build and operate rack-scale AI systems. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella develops low-power AI vision chips and related software for cameras, vehicles, robots, and other edge or physical AI devices. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs and sells CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, adaptive chips, networking products and related software for data center, PC, gaming and embedded markets. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy silicon-anode lithium-ion battery cells for aviation, defense, drone, and mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates a global commerce, cloud, advertising, subscription, and logistics platform serving consumers, sellers, developers, and enterprises. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista sells high-speed Ethernet switching, routing, and network operations software for AI, cloud, enterprise, campus, and service provider networks. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates high-power AI data center campuses and related colocation infrastructure in North America. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin provides AI-driven advertising, measurement, and monetization software for mobile apps, web merchants, and connected TV publishers. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech with retained exposure to the Apitox pain program and a newly merged MindWave digital-asset treasury and validator workflow business. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU and related compute intellectual property, earns royalties on chips using its designs, and is now extending that platform into data-center silicon. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography, metrology, inspection, software and services that chipmakers use to manufacture advanced semiconductors at scale. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite-based cellular broadband network that connects ordinary smartphones through mobile operator partners for commercial and government use. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora develops and commercializes a self-driving system for heavy trucks through partnerships with OEMs, carriers, and logistics operators. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment develops autonomous systems, loitering munitions, counter-drone, space, cyber, directed-energy, and mission software products for U.S. and allied defense customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software products used in AI data centers, networking, broadband, storage, wireless, and private cloud environments. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai develops and deploys AI software, analytics, and biometric identity products for defense, intelligence, border, travel, and supply-chain customers. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing base-editing genetic medicines for sickle cell disease and rare liver disorders. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld ultrasound devices and related cloud workflow, AI, education, and developer tools to clinicians, health systems, educators, and partners. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky operates an Earth-observation satellite constellation and software stack that sells real-time imagery, analytics, monitoring subscriptions, and mission solutions to government and commercial customers. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT is a U.S. nuclear manufacturing and engineering company supplying naval reactor components and fuel, commercial nuclear services and components, and medical radioisotopes. CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc. Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI processors such as WSE-3 and sells AI compute systems plus cloud inference and training services to enterprises, model developers, research institutions, and governments. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells software, hardware, and silicon IP used to design, verify, and optimize chips and complex electromechanical systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy generates and sells electricity, natural gas and energy solutions, anchored by the largest U.S. nuclear fleet and an expanded gas, geothermal and retail platform after Calpine. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, manufactures and integrates complex hardware platforms, networking gear and supply-chain solutions for hyperscale, enterprise and industrial customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent makes optical networking products, lasers, semiconductor devices, and engineered materials used in AI datacenters, communications, and industrial systems. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a regulated crypto platform spanning trading, custody, stablecoin, derivatives, payments, and developer infrastructure. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific builds and operates high-power U.S. data center campuses for AI colocation while still retaining smaller digital asset mining and hosting activities. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo designs high-speed chips, cables and optical interconnect products that move data inside large AI and cloud systems. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells enterprise cloud software for customer relationship management, service, analytics, integration, collaboration, data, and AI-driven workflow automation. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence sells embedded conversational AI, connected services, and software tools that automakers use in vehicle infotainment and in-car assistant systems. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines and cell therapies, including the approved hemoglobinopathy therapy CASGEVY and a broader pipeline in cardiovascular, autoimmune, oncology, and regenerative medicine. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. CoreWeave provides AI-focused cloud infrastructure, storage, networking, and software tools for training, fine-tuning, and running AI workloads at scale. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog provides a SaaS platform for monitoring cloud infrastructure, applications, logs, user experience, and security across enterprise software environments. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies designs, sells and supports PCs, servers, storage, networking, software, services and financing solutions for enterprise, public-sector and commercial customers. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks sells autonomous laboratory infrastructure, biological R&D services, and workflow software/data tools to biotech, pharma, industrial biotech, and government customers. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates global carrier-neutral data centers and interconnection services that help enterprises, cloud providers and networks place and connect digital workloads. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells search, observability, security, and cloud software that helps enterprises turn large volumes of data into answers, actions, and operational workflows. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton is a power-management and electrical infrastructure company serving data center, utility, industrial, residential, aerospace and mobility markets with hardware, engineered systems and software. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 sells cloud contact-center software, AI automation, workflow, and workforce tools for enterprises handling customer interactions across voice and digital channels. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence designs and integrates grid-scale battery storage systems and sells operating software and services to utilities, developers, and large power users. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision manufacturing services for complex optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic products used in communications, data infrastructure, lasers, medical devices, and other high-reliability markets. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet monetizes global user intent through Search and YouTube, sells cloud infrastructure and software, and invests in AI, security, and autonomous driving. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells servers, storage, networking, hybrid cloud software, and financing/services for enterprise and public-sector IT infrastructure. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company developing therapies intended to overcome resistance to cancer immunotherapy. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power, digital infrastructure, and compute capacity for AI, high-performance computing, and Bitcoin-related workloads. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, evaluation, observability, and domain-expert workflow software and services for large enterprises and technology customers. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and related networking, security, sensing, and cloud-access offerings for enterprise, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN owns and operates power-backed data centers that provide AI cloud compute, colocation and residual bitcoin mining capacity. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil provides engineering, manufacturing, and supply-chain solutions for complex electronics and infrastructure programs across data centers, healthcare, industrial, and other end markets. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, plans to operate premium air taxi networks, and also sells related flight, engineering, and passenger services. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos designs and fields defense hardware, propulsion, space ground systems, microwave electronics and related software for U.S. government, allied and commercial customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum makes optical and photonic components, modules, subsystems, and lasers used in AI data-center networking, telecom networks, industrial manufacturing, and sensing. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, car, pet, and term life insurance through a digital, AI-enabled insurance stack in the U.S. and parts of Europe. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs low-power programmable chips, software tools, and security/control solutions used in servers, communications gear, industrial systems, automotive electronics, and embedded devices. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops automotive-grade chips, software, maps, and integrated systems for driver-assistance and autonomous-driving programs. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, Threads and related AI products, monetizing mostly through digital advertising and secondarily through devices and business tools. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells power-management semiconductors and modules used in enterprise data, storage, automotive, communications, consumer and industrial systems. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Marvell designs data-center and communications semiconductors, including custom compute, switching, optical interconnect and storage controllers. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, business applications, operating systems, security tools, and AI products to enterprises, developers, and consumers. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and uses a multi-security capital stack to accumulate bitcoin on its balance sheet. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures RF, optical and mixed-signal semiconductor products and foundry services for data center, telecom, industrial and defense markets. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products including DRAM, NAND, NOR, HBM, and SSDs for data center, AI, client, mobile, automotive, and industrial markets. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius provides AI cloud infrastructure, managed inference, and developer tooling, with smaller mobility and education assets alongside the core AI platform. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy owns Florida Power & Light and a large competitive energy infrastructure platform that develops and operates power, storage, transmission and gas assets. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare sells cloud-based network security, performance, reliability, and developer-platform services over a global edge network. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox develops digital tomosynthesis imaging systems and sells related AI, cloud, teleradiology, marketplace, and healthcare IT services to providers. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that automates and governs enterprise workflows across IT, employee, customer, security, and risk operations. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise storage systems, data management software, and cloud storage services that help customers store, govern, protect, and move data across on-premises and public clouds. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage biotech developing in vivo CRISPR gene-editing medicines for hereditary angioedema, transthyretin amyloidosis and other severe diseases. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera provides cell-free DNA and genetic testing across oncology, women’s health, organ health, rare disease, and laboratory partners. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs accelerated computing chips, networking, systems and software used in AI data centers, gaming, automotive and edge devices. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo develops advanced nuclear power plants, fuel-cycle facilities, and isotope capabilities for U.S. power, industrial, and government customers. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs and manufactures power semiconductors, sensing devices, and related technologies for automotive, industrial, energy, and AI data center applications. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells database software, enterprise applications, cloud infrastructure, and related services to businesses and governments worldwide. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster develops digital lidar sensors, stereo cameras, and perception software for robots, vehicles, industrial sites, and smart infrastructure. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells network security appliances and cloud-delivered cybersecurity subscriptions across network, cloud, security operations, AI, and identity. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise software for building, orchestrating, monitoring, and governing automations, AI agents, documents, and workflows across business processes. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI sells autonomy software, avionics, precision-manufactured components, and engineering services for defense and industrial robotic systems. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet sells satellite imagery, geospatial data, analytics, and tasking services to government and commercial customers through its owned Earth-observation fleet and software delivery layer. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software platforms that connect data, AI models, and operational workflows for governments and enterprises. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies designs photonic packaging, optical engines, light sources and modules for AI networks and hyperscale data centers. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing one-time genetic therapies using its Prime Editing and PASSIGE platforms. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, builds and maintains electric power, underground utility and communications infrastructure for utilities, generators, large-load and industrial customers. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops annealing and gate-model quantum computing systems, cloud access, software, and services for commercial, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. develops photonic components, foundry services, quantum and photonic systems, and related cloud-access products for commercial, research, and government users. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat develops and sells small unmanned aircraft, control systems, and adjacent robotic solutions for defense, government, and public-safety customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells identity intelligence, verification, and risk-mitigation software and data products to enterprises, public-sector users, and real-estate professionals. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and systems, sells quantum hardware, and provides cloud access to its machines. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot owns bitcoin mining campuses, power-linked data center development sites, and electrical engineering businesses that it is using to pivot toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab provides launch services, spacecraft, payloads, satellite components, and on-orbit mission operations for commercial, civil, and defense customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Clinical-stage precision medicine company developing small-molecule therapies for cancer and genetic disease using its Dynamo discovery engine. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus sells memory interface chips and licenses interface and security silicon IP used in AI, data center, and other semiconductor systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics develops, deploys, sells and rents service and industrial robots plus related data services for hospitality, retail, automotive, manufacturing and healthcare customers. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion uses an internal AI-enabled drug discovery and development platform plus automated labs to build its own pipeline and pharma collaborations. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells subscription cybersecurity software and related services for endpoint, cloud, identity, data, and AI-era security operations. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells molecular design software and discovery workflow tools to pharma, biotech, industrial, and academic customers, and also monetizes collaborative and proprietary drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous delivery robots, hospital-service robots, and related software for delivery platforms, merchants, and healthcare customers. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime designs and sells precision timing semiconductors and related tools used in communications, AI data center, automotive, industrial, aerospace, and other electronic systems. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs and manufactures servers, storage, rack-scale systems, cooling, networking, and management software for enterprise, cloud, and AI data center customers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale develops and licenses small modular nuclear reactor designs and related engineering and plant services for utilities, industrial users, and project developers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud data platform that lets enterprises store, process, govern, share, and use data and AI workloads across public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells semiconductor design software, silicon interface IP, hardware-assisted verification systems, and engineering simulation software used to build complex chips and intelligent products. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice and conversational AI software that helps enterprises deploy branded assistants and automated workflows across cars, restaurants, devices, customer service, and digital channels. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global operates a low-earth-orbit satellite network and sells weather, aviation, radio-signal sensing, and space services data products to government and enterprise customers. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, controls, edge hardware, and services that help owners and operators monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic builds AI-enabled warehouse automation systems and earns revenue from systems, software maintenance and support, and operation services for large distributors and retailers. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus sells genomic diagnostics, clinical workflow tools, and de-identified data and analytics products to providers and life sciences customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. nuclear and dispatchable power assets and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale markets and under long-term power arrangements. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and sells related software and services directly to consumers, businesses and utilities. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures chips for customer designs and provides advanced packaging, mask, testing, and design-enablement services. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience manufactures synthetic DNA products, next-generation sequencing sample-preparation tools, and antibody discovery solutions for research, diagnostics, and therapeutics customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density power modules and power systems used in AI servers, industrial equipment, telecom, transportation, and aerospace and defense applications. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co. Vertiv designs, manufactures, and services power, cooling, rack, and control infrastructure used in data centers and other uptime-critical digital facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra generates electricity, sells electricity and natural gas at retail, and manages wholesale power and fuel positions across competitive U.S. markets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops and operates U.S. power-advantaged data center infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing hosting, with legacy bitcoin mining as a flexible load. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler sells cloud-delivered zero trust security and secure access services that sit inline between enterprise users, applications, data, and the internet.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: