Next Arc Research

Is it better to stay in the Mag 7 — or are there stronger opportunities as AI reshapes the economy?
We find who's positioned to win before it shows up in the earnings.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Introduction

Next Arc Research is built around one question: as AI makes it cheaper to think, coordinate, and build, which companies are positioned to benefit most — and can we spot them before it shows up in the earnings? Every week, we analyze ~120 public companies, tracking where real advantages are forming, what the risks are, and what evidence would change our mind. See the FAQ.

Grounded in my own investing thesis and AI expertise, Next Arc Research leverages advanced reasoning models and extensive web research to evaluate companies through qualitative and quantitative signals of long-term potential. The framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis — the view that we’re entering a phase of unprecedented technological acceleration that will redefine how value emerges across industries.

Disclosure: I hold long positions in most of the companies I analyze on this platform. The detail page of any company will be specific as to whether I hold that company. My allocation to any particular company varies based on implied growth, risk and other factors. This is not investment advice and I am not paid to promote any company.

Methodology

Each week, AI models run fresh research on every company and score them across five dimensions:

The models pull from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive developments — so the analysis reflects this week, not last quarter.

Coverage

I analyze a curated selection of public companies with significant exposure to transformative technology trends. My coverage includes:

Currently covering 120 symbols:

AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics designs and manufactures optical transceivers, lasers, and broadband networking products for data center, cable, telecom, and fiber access customers. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. Archer develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and related operating technologies for commercial air taxi and defense use cases. AI C3.ai, Inc. C3 AI sells enterprise AI software, applications, and development tools to commercial and government customers, with particular strength in regulated and operational workflows. AISP Airship AI Holdings, Inc. Airship AI sells edge devices, software, and support that ingest, manage, and analyze video and sensor data for government and enterprise security operations. ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Astera Labs designs semiconductor connectivity chips, cable modules, switches, and embedded software used in hyperscale AI and cloud infrastructure. AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Ambarella designs low-power edge AI vision semiconductors and supporting software for security cameras, vehicles, robots and on-premise edge systems. AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, adaptive SoCs and software used in data centers, PCs, gaming systems and embedded devices. AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Amprius develops and sells high-energy, high-power lithium-ion battery cells for aerospace, defense, and light electric mobility applications. AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon operates global online and physical retail, third-party marketplace services, cloud infrastructure through AWS, advertising, subscriptions, logistics, and emerging satellite connectivity services. ANET Arista Networks, Inc. Arista designs Ethernet switches, routers, and network software such as CloudVision, CloudEOS, and VeloCloud for AI, cloud, campus, and enterprise networks. APLD Applied Digital Corporation Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates AI-oriented data center campuses, colocation capacity, and cloud compute infrastructure in North America. APP AppLovin Corporation AppLovin runs AI-driven advertising software that helps advertisers buy performance media and helps publishers monetize app and connected-TV inventory. APUS Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing LT-100 (Apitox) for osteoarthritis pain and, after the MindWave transaction, also promoting digital-asset treasury activities. ARM Arm Holdings plc Arm licenses CPU and related semiconductor design IP, software tools and services to chip companies, and earns royalties on shipped Arm-based chips. ASML ASML Holding N.V. ASML supplies lithography, metrology, inspection, software and services used by chip manufacturers to produce semiconductors. ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that lets ordinary smartphones connect directly from space through mobile carrier and government partners. AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. Aurora builds self-driving trucking technology and related services that let freight carriers run driverless trucks on commercial routes. AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. AeroVironment develops autonomous systems, loitering munitions, counter-drone tools, directed-energy systems, space and cyber capabilities, and related defense services for U.S. and allied customers. AVGO Broadcom Inc. Broadcom designs and sells semiconductor and infrastructure software products, including custom AI accelerators, networking silicon, VMware private-cloud software, and security tools. BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BigBear.ai builds AI software, analytics, and related services for defense, national security, customs, trade, and other regulated operational workflows. BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. Beam develops base-editing genetic medicines, delivery methods, and internal manufacturing capabilities for serious genetic diseases. BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. Butterfly sells handheld semiconductor-based ultrasound probes plus cloud workflow software, AI tools, and licensing capabilities for clinicians, health systems, educators, and partners. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky sells subscription satellite imagery, analytics, and sovereign mission solutions through its Spectra software stack and owned low-earth-orbit constellation. BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT manufactures nuclear components and fuel and provides related services for U.S. naval and defense programs, commercial nuclear operators, and nuclear medicine customers. CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Cadence sells chip-design software, verification hardware, semiconductor IP, and system analysis tools used to design silicon, boards, and electromechanical systems. CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Constellation Energy owns a large U.S. fleet of nuclear, natural gas, geothermal, hydro, wind and solar generation and sells power and energy solutions to retail, commercial, industrial and public-sector customers. CLS Celestica Inc. Celestica designs, engineers, manufactures and services data-center, communications, aerospace, defense, industrial and healthcare hardware for hyperscalers, OEMs and enterprise customers. COHR Coherent Corp. Coherent makes lasers, optical transceivers, photonic components, and engineered materials used in AI datacenters, communications networks, and industrial manufacturing. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Coinbase operates a crypto trading, custody, staking, stablecoin, payments, and onchain infrastructure platform for retail users, institutions, and developers. CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. Core Scientific operates power-dense data centers that provide high-density colocation for AI workloads while still generating revenue from bitcoin self-mining and hosted mining. CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Credo sells high-speed connectivity chips, cables, optical modules, IP, and diagnostics software for AI, cloud, and hyperscale data infrastructure. CRM Salesforce, Inc. Salesforce sells enterprise cloud software for customer relationship management, service, marketing, data, integration, collaboration, and AI-driven workflow automation. CRNC Cerence Inc. Cerence develops automotive conversational AI software, embedded voice assistants, and connected services for automakers and Tier-1 suppliers. CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRISPR Therapeutics develops gene-edited medicines across rare blood disorders, autoimmune disease, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolic disease, and partnered RNA therapeutics. CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity software and services that protect endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations. CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. AI-focused cloud provider offering GPU compute, storage, Kubernetes, and workflow software for training, inference, and agent workloads at scale. DDOG Datadog, Inc. Datadog sells a cloud-based observability and security platform that helps engineering, operations, product, and security teams monitor, troubleshoot, and protect applications and infrastructure. DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies sells enterprise infrastructure, PCs, storage, networking, services and financing solutions, with AI systems now becoming a major growth driver. DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. Ginkgo Bioworks provides autonomous lab capacity and biology data-generation services to biopharma, industrial, and government customers, including AbDev, Omics, and specialized HTS workflows. EQIX Equinix, Inc. Equinix operates global colocation data centers and sells interconnection, networking and related digital infrastructure services to enterprises, clouds, networks and AI-driven customers. ESTC Elastic N.V. Elastic sells search, observability, and security software plus managed cloud services that help enterprises ingest, store, search, and analyze data across cloud and self-managed environments. ETN Eaton Corporation plc Eaton is a diversified power-management manufacturer supplying electrical infrastructure, power quality, aerospace systems, vehicle components, and related digital services to data center, utility, industrial, commercial, residential, and aerospace customers. FIVN Five9, Inc. Five9 provides cloud software that helps enterprises run customer-service and sales contact centers with routing, automation, AI, analytics, and integrations. FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. Fluence sells grid-scale battery storage systems, operational services, and optimization software to utilities, developers, independent power producers, and commercial customers. FN Fabrinet Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services for complex OEM products. GOOG Alphabet Inc. Alphabet owns Google and monetizes global consumer attention and enterprise workloads through advertising, cloud, subscriptions, devices, and emerging AI and autonomy businesses. HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE sells enterprise servers, storage, networking, private cloud software, support, and financing to commercial and public-sector customers. HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. Clinical-stage biotechnology company developing immuno-oncology therapies intended to overcome primary and acquired resistance to checkpoint inhibitors. HUT Hut 8 Corp. Hut 8 develops and operates power-backed data center, cloud, colocation, and compute infrastructure for Bitcoin mining, AI/HPC, and enterprise workloads. INOD Innodata Inc. Innodata provides AI data engineering, model evaluation, medical-record intelligence, and media-intelligence software and services to technology companies, enterprises, healthcare clients, and government customers. IONQ IonQ, Inc. IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computing systems, cloud access, and adjacent networking, sensing, and security solutions for commercial, government, and research customers. IREN IREN Limited IREN develops powered data-center campuses and GPU cloud capacity for AI training and inference, while still operating Bitcoin mining assets. JBL Jabil Inc. Jabil is a global manufacturing and engineering partner that designs, sources, builds, and services complex hardware for cloud, data center, healthcare, automotive, and industrial customers. JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. Joby develops piloted all-electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and is building direct and partner-led air taxi, aircraft sales, and defense-related businesses. KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kratos makes unmanned aircraft, propulsion and hypersonic systems, microwave electronics, and satellite ground software for U.S. and allied defense customers. LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Lumentum designs and manufactures optical and photonic components, modules, and switching systems used in AI/cloud data centers, telecom networks, industrial lasers, and sensing applications. LMND Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, pet, car, and term life insurance directly to consumers in the U.S. and Europe through its app and website. LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation Lattice Semiconductor designs low-power programmable logic chips, related software, and IP used in communications, computing, industrial, automotive, and consumer systems. MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Mobileye develops automotive driver-assistance and autonomous-driving chips, software, mapping, and system solutions for automakers and mobility operators. META Meta Platforms, Inc. Meta runs Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger and Threads, monetizing attention mainly through advertising while investing heavily in AI infrastructure and consumer devices. MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells power-management semiconductors and modules used in servers, AI systems, vehicles, communications gear, consumer devices, and industrial equipment. MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Fabless semiconductor company selling custom AI compute, interconnect, networking, optical and storage silicon for cloud, carrier and enterprise infrastructure. MSFT Microsoft Corporation Microsoft sells cloud infrastructure, productivity software, developer tools, security, business applications, gaming content, and AI products to enterprise, public-sector, and consumer customers. MSTR Strategy Inc Strategy sells enterprise analytics software and separately uses equity, preferred stock, and debt financing to acquire and hold bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MACOM designs and manufactures analog RF, microwave and optical semiconductors used in data centers, communications networks, industrial systems and defense platforms. MU Micron Technology, Inc. Micron designs, manufactures and sells memory and storage products including DRAM, NAND, HBM and data-center SSDs for AI, cloud, mobile, automotive and industrial markets. NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Nebius runs an AI-focused cloud platform offering compute, storage, inference software, and developer tools, with smaller optional assets in robotics and edtech. NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. NextEra Energy is a regulated electric utility and power infrastructure developer that sells electricity in Florida and develops, owns and operates renewables, storage, gas, transmission and nuclear assets across North America. NET Cloudflare, Inc. Cloudflare runs a global network that helps customers secure, connect, and accelerate applications, users, APIs, and developer workloads. NNOX Nano-X Imaging Ltd. Nanox sells digital tomosynthesis imaging systems and a bundled stack of AI, cloud, teleradiology, marketplace, and health IT tools for providers. NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ServiceNow sells cloud software that helps large organizations automate and govern IT, employee, customer, security, and other cross-functional workflows. NTAP NetApp, Inc. NetApp sells enterprise data storage systems, data-management software, and cloud data services for workloads that run across on-premises and public cloud environments. NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. Intellia is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing in vivo CRISPR-based gene editing therapies, led by lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema and nex-z for transthyretin amyloidosis. NTRA Natera, Inc. Natera provides cell-free DNA and genetic testing services across oncology, women’s health, and organ health, with oncology now the main long-term value driver. NVDA NVIDIA Corporation NVIDIA designs and sells accelerated computing chips, networking, systems and software used across AI data centers, gaming, industrial workflows and automotive platforms. OKLO Oklo Inc. Oklo is developing and plans to own and operate small advanced nuclear power plants, fuel-cycle facilities, and radioisotope assets. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation onsemi designs, manufactures, and sells power, analog, mixed-signal, and sensing semiconductors mainly for automotive, industrial, energy infrastructure, and AI data center applications. ORCL Oracle Corporation Oracle sells cloud infrastructure, enterprise applications, database software, hardware, and related services to businesses, governments, and other organizations. OUST Ouster, Inc. Ouster makes digital lidar sensors and perception software used in industrial automation, robotics, smart infrastructure, automotive, and security applications. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Palo Alto Networks sells cybersecurity platforms that secure enterprise networks, clouds, users, security operations, AI systems and identities. PATH UiPath, Inc. UiPath sells enterprise automation software that helps organizations orchestrate AI agents, robots, APIs, and people across business workflows. PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. Palladyne AI sells embedded autonomy software, avionics, UAV engineering, and precision-manufactured defense components for defense and industrial machines. PL Planet Labs PBC Planet operates Earth-observation satellite constellations and sells imagery, tasking, geospatial data, and analytics to government and commercial customers. PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Palantir sells software that connects data, models, and workflows for governments and enterprises operating in complex, regulated, or mission-critical environments. POET POET Technologies Inc. POET Technologies develops photonic optical engines, light sources and modules intended to reduce power, size and cost in AI and hyperscale network links. PRME Prime Medicine, Inc. Prime Medicine is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing one-time gene-editing therapies using its proprietary Prime Editing platform. PWR Quanta Services, Inc. Quanta Services designs, builds, upgrades and maintains electric power, communications and related critical infrastructure for utilities, generators, data-center load centers and industrial customers. QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. D-Wave develops quantum computing systems plus cloud software and services for commercial, government, and research customers. QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. Quantum Computing Inc. develops photonic quantum systems, thin-film lithium niobate foundry services, and photonics components for AI, secure communications, and sensing. RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Red Cat develops and sells American-made drones, uncrewed surface vessels, and related control systems for defense, government, and public safety customers. RDVT Red Violet, Inc. red violet sells identity intelligence software and data through IDI and FOREWARN to help enterprises, government users, and real-estate professionals verify identities, assess risk, and investigate people and entities. RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. Rigetti designs and manufactures superconducting quantum processors and systems, and sells cloud and on-premises access for research, government, and enterprise users. RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. Riot develops and operates bitcoin mining sites and large power-dense data center campuses, while also providing electrical engineering and fabrication services. RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Rocket Lab is a space infrastructure company providing launch services, spacecraft, satellite components, and mission operations for commercial, civil, and defense customers. RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. Relay Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech using its Dynamo discovery engine to develop small-molecule medicines for mutation-defined cancers and genetic diseases. RMBS Rambus Inc. Rambus designs and licenses memory and security semiconductor IP and sells memory interface chips used in AI, data center and other electronics systems. RR Richtech Robotics Inc. Richtech Robotics designs, deploys and services commercial and industrial robots, with an emerging recurring revenue and data-services model. RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Recursion is a clinical-stage biotechnology company using its Recursion OS platform to discover and advance internal and partnered medicines across multiple therapeutic areas. S SentinelOne, Inc. SentinelOne sells AI-native cybersecurity software that protects endpoints, cloud workloads, identities, data, and security operations through its Singularity platform. SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. Schrödinger sells molecular modeling and discovery workflow software to pharma and other customers, and also applies the same platform to collaborations and internal drug programs. SERV Serve Robotics Inc. Serve Robotics designs, deploys, and operates autonomous sidewalk delivery robots and adjacent workflow automation software, now expanding into hospital logistics. SITM SiTime Corporation SiTime sells precision timing semiconductors that help electronics systems stay synchronized across communications, datacenter, automotive, industrial, mobile and other markets. SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Supermicro designs, manufactures, and sells server, storage, rack-scale, and data-center infrastructure systems for cloud, AI, enterprise, and edge customers. SMR NuScale Power Corporation NuScale Power designs, licenses and supports small modular nuclear reactor technology and related plant services for utilities, developers and industrial customers. SNOW Snowflake Inc. Snowflake provides a cloud data platform that lets enterprises store, process, govern, share, and use data and AI workloads across major public clouds. SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Synopsys sells chip design, verification, semiconductor interface IP, hardware-assisted validation, and engineering simulation software used to build semiconductors and complex products. SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. SoundHound AI sells voice, conversational, and enterprise agent software for automakers, restaurants, contact centers, and enterprise workflows. SPIR Spire Global, Inc. Spire Global builds, owns, and operates satellites that generate weather, aviation, RF, and Earth data, and it also sells managed satellite mission services. STEM Stem, Inc. Stem sells software, edge controls, and services that help owners and operators monitor, control, and optimize solar, storage, and hybrid energy assets. SYM Symbotic Inc. Symbotic designs, installs, and services AI-enabled warehouse automation systems that combine robots, software, and operating services for large retailers, wholesalers, and distributors. TEM Tempus AI, Inc. Tempus sells genomic testing, clinical workflow software, and de-identified data and analytics products to providers, health systems, and life sciences customers. TLN Talen Energy Corporation Talen Energy owns and operates U.S. nuclear and gas-fired power plants and sells electricity, capacity, and related services into wholesale markets and selected bilateral arrangements. TSLA Tesla, Inc. Tesla designs, manufactures and sells battery-electric vehicles, energy storage systems, charging services and related software. TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSMC manufactures leading-edge and mature semiconductor wafers plus advanced packaging for fabless chip companies, system companies, and integrated device manufacturers. TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation Twist Bioscience makes synthetic DNA products, next-generation sequencing sample-preparation tools, and antibody discovery services for biopharma, research, and industrial customers. VICR Vicor Corporation Vicor designs and manufactures high-density modular power components and power systems used in AI computing, industrial, networking, transportation, and defense electronics. VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Vertiv designs, manufactures, and services power, thermal management, racks, monitoring software, and lifecycle services for data centers, communication networks, and other mission-critical facilities. VST Vistra Corp. Vistra is an integrated competitive power company that sells retail electricity and natural gas and generates wholesale power from a large U.S. fleet of gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery assets. WULF TeraWulf Inc. TeraWulf develops, owns, and operates U.S. data center infrastructure for high-performance computing hosting and bitcoin mining. ZS Zscaler, Inc. Zscaler sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity subscriptions that sit inline between users, devices, applications, workloads, and AI systems to enforce access, data protection, and policy controls.

Note: Availability of analysis for each symbol is subject to your Patreon tier membership level.

Patreon Tiers

You can support this project (to fund deeper and more frequent research across a broader set of companies) through joining as a Patreon member. Three different tiers provide different benefits depending on your goals. See below for samples of the analysis at different levels:

Free
$0/month

All Covered Stocks
Weekly updates with core analysis: thesis, growth outlook, risk summary, M.I.N.D. summary, and narrative synopsis. Web access only.

Reader
$5/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Free, plus bull/base/bear case, and M.I.N.D. scores. Web access only.

Allocator
$12/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Reader, plus M.I.N.D. explanations, comparative advantage analysis, critiques, growth rationale, key citations, risk scores and sensitivity notes. Web access only.

Builder
$36/month

All Covered Stocks
Everything in Allocator, plus detailed risk factor commentary, competitor identification, trend considerations, skills/assets/capabilities, valuation reasoning and noteworthy learnings. Web, PDF & CSV access.
Support on Patreon

While you are subscribed at a particular tier on Patreon, you will have access to the Next Arc Research website where you will be able to browse the analysis of each company covered by that tier.
Note that "Top 10" etc. is based on the companies' implied growth through 2030 ranking when the analysis is performed, i.e. the 10/30/100 companies with the highest implied growth.

Update Cadence

These analyses are updated on a weekly basis around the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th day of each month. If there are meaningful events in the market (e.g. earning season) then updates may be delayed to the end of the week.

Using the Data

Here are some practical ways people often use this kind of research inside their own workflow — purely as examples tied to the features of the platform, and not as recommendations or investment advice:

None of this is investment advice. Everyone’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals are different, so please consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Changelog

March 2026 - Week 2
Cleaner Glossary Tooltips
  • Glossary tooltips are now more precise. Common words like "multiple," "platform," and "converts" that have both financial and everyday meanings are no longer highlighted when used in their generic sense, reducing visual noise across company pages.
March 2026 - Week 1
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis engine to GPT-5.4 from OpenAI. As with any model upgrade, you may notice some shifts in scores or rankings compared to prior weeks — this reflects the newer model's improved reasoning, not necessarily a change in our methodology or the companies themselves.
February 2026 - Week 4
Sharper Scores, Steadier Rankings
  • Last Economy Alignment scores now do a better job distinguishing companies with genuinely different structural positions. Previously, scores tended to cluster in a narrow band; the updated scoring spreads them out so you can more easily see which companies own durable advantages versus which ones look strong today but may be exposed as constraints fall. You may notice some companies shifting position relative to last week as a result—this reflects better calibration, not a change in the underlying analysis.
  • Breakout candidate rankings are now smoothed over recent weeks instead of recalculated from scratch each time. This means less week-to-week noise—a company won't jump in and out of breakout contention on minor data fluctuations, giving you a more reliable signal of which names are genuinely gaining momentum.
Contrast Pair Stories
  • New story format: we now publish head-to-head comparisons of two companies in the same market segment that diverge on structural positioning. These make it easier to see what actually separates durable advantage from surface-level AI exposure when two companies are competing for the same customers.
February 2026 - Week 3
AI Industrial Alignment in the UI
  • AI Industrial Alignment is now an axis option in the screener / scatter plot.
  • Every company page now includes a Last Economy Structure section showing how the business positions within the AI industrial landscape. Free users see the headline AI Industrial Score, higher tiers progressively unlock the score decomposition, structural risk vectors, and full control-point and flywheel analysis.
February 2026 - Week 2
Deeper Last Economy Analysis
  • Added a new two-pass AI/Agent/Automation Alignment analysis that scores each company for “fitness to benefit from the AI Industrial Revolution.” Instead of extrapolating from recent winners, this lens asks: as cognition, coordination, energy, and capacity constraints loosen, where does the company own or gate a durable choke point versus where does cheaper intelligence erode value capture?
  • The first phase maps where a company genuinely controls value and where it may be exposed as software and automation become more capable. The second phase evaluates how advantage compounds, which real-world bottlenecks still matter, how revenue is actually captured, and how resilient the business is across different economic and regulatory regimes. The result is a clearer distinction between durable industrial leverage and surfaces that look strong today but may thin out as constraints fall.
February 2026 - Week 1
Software Value Analysis
  • Added a new lens to our research that directly addresses what markets are pricing right now: as AI automates more knowledge work, many software features become cheap and easy to copy. For every company we cover, we now explicitly assess “obsolescence risk” (how easily the product can be replaced by AI or bundled into someone else’s platform) versus “durable advantage” (distribution, switching costs, trust, regulation, data rights, and real-world infrastructure).
  • Updated our writeups to clearly explain what this shift means for each company’s path to growth: whether it can keep pricing power, how it will capture value if AI changes the way customers buy (e.g., seats → usage → embedded workflows), and what concrete proof points investors should watch next to confirm resilience or signal disruption.
January 2026 - Week 3
Deeper Pre-Analysis
  • Added constraint analysis that identifies bottlenecks and barriers—supply chain dependencies, regulatory hurdles, capacity limits—that could slow or accelerate a company's ability to capture growth. This surfaces hidden risks and opportunities that affect execution, helping you understand not just where a company is going but what stands in the way.
  • Added path dependency and milestone mapping that charts the critical execution gates each company must pass through to realize its growth potential. This reveals which catalysts could trigger repricing events, how sequential the path is, and where fragility or optionality exists—giving you a clearer picture of timing and risk on the road to value creation.
January 2026 - Week 2
No updates
  • No major user-facing changes this week
January 2026 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Trend Analysis
  • Added smoothed M.I.N.D. scores using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) to reduce week-to-week noise in factor assessments. The smoothed values give a more stable view of each company's structural strengths.
  • New trend indicators show whether each M.I.N.D. factor (and the composite score) is improving or declining. Slopes are calculated over 5 weeks of history and expressed as change per week.
  • Builder tier CSV exports now include additional columns: smoothed M.I.N.D. score, M.I.N.D. trend slope, 5-period average risk score, Last Economy alignment, upside compression, and bull/base/bear CAGRs.
  • The interactive screener adds "M.I.N.D. Trend" as a new axis option. Positive values indicate improving structural quality; negative values suggest deterioration. This helps identify companies with strengthening or weakening competitive positions.
  • M.I.N.D. percentiles are now calculated using the more stable M.I.N.D. EWMA scores.
  • Last Economy Watch now weights evidence by significance rather than counting items. High-impact, hard-to-reverse developments carry more weight than symbolic announcements, giving a clearer picture of whether macro conditions are truly shifting toward or away from the thesis.
December 2025 - Week 4
Enhancements
  • We are renaming the tiers to give them names that more closely reflect their utility as we work to grow our audience. "Access" becomes "Reader", "Plus" becomes "Allocator" and "Portfolio" becomes "Builder".
  • We are making all covered stocks available at all tiers. Tier differentiation primarily comes down to the depth of analysis and the tools made available at each tier.
  • Going forward we will update analysis for all covered stock for all Tiers every week. This will make it easier to dependably deep link to analysis from our social media stories.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and engaging.
Additions & Modifications
  • Initiating coverage of TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), Jabil Inc. (JBL) and Talen Energy Corp. (TLN).
  • Replacing MATIC with POL as a more appropriate "symbol" for The Polygon Network.
December 2025 - Week 3
Enhancements
  • We reworked the screener display of M.I.N.D. and Upside Compression (previously Valuation Tension) to use log axes.
  • We renamed "Valuation Tension" to "Upside Compression" to make the meaning clearer and more directional. Upside compression is a ratio of the five year opportunity of an asset to its current Price Position. Price Position is where the asset is prices relative to its 52-week low/high range.
  • Added new axes to the screener for M.I.N.D. score percentile and Upside Compression percentile. These spread the scatter and may make it simpler to interpret.
  • We will be publishing specific updates on examples of companies that fall into each quadrant of the M.I.N.D./Upside Compression plot.
  • Many enhancements to the content publishing pipleline that will hopefully make stories more information rich and accessible.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of NetApp Inc. (NTAP), Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ) and Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR).
December 2025 - Week 2
Model Upgrade
  • We upgraded the analysis process to use the newly released GPT 5.2 from OpenAI.
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of ASML Holding (ASML), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY).
December 2025 - Week 1
M.I.N.D. Framework Integration
  • Added M.I.N.D. scoring (Material, Intelligence, Network, Diversity) from Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" framework. Scores assess strength in physical domains, AI/intelligence generation, network effects, and optionality on a 0.0-1.0 scale.
  • M.I.N.D. scores now available at Free tier; explanations for each dimension at Plus tier and above.
  • Interactive screener now includes M.I.N.D. Score as a selectable axis option alongside growth, risk, and alignment metrics.
  • Added three price-based metrics to screener axes: Price Position (52w range position), Price Compression (distance from 52w high), and Valuation Tension (growth forecast divided by price position).
Additions
  • Initiating coverage of Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), AeroVironment (AVAV) and the super interesting merger Apus Health (Apimeds-Mindwave).
Bug fixes
  • Fixed a bug in the calculation of risk-weighted growth.
November 2025 - Week 3
Adding Dynamic chart / screener, glossaries and FAQ.
  • The static risk vs growth chart has been replaced by a dynamic chart that allows you to plot different axes and filter the assets you want to see. This is available at paid membership levels but not at the free level given the smaller number of assets there doesn't warrant filtering. For members with weekly update cadence this is in place on last week's analysis index. For monthly updates this will appear with the next regular update (week 4 in November).
  • The online stock analysis pages are now augmented with a glossary capability. If you see a word underlined then you can hover the mouse over the word and see a definition.
  • There is now a short Frequently Asked Questions page. If you'd like a question answered please reach out on Patreon.
  • A few minor changes, shortening some of the prose around skills, assets & capabilities slightly and making current share price and 52-week high/low explicitly available to the analysis.
  • Upgrading to GPT 5.1 for analyses going forward.
November 2025 - Week 2
Adding Crypto
  • Initiated coverage on a number of retail available, institutionally research crypto assets: ATOM, AVAX, BTC, DOT, ETH, FIL, LINK, MATIC, and SOL
November 2025 - Week 1
Adding Context
  • Analysis now includes consideration of bull, base and bear cases from reputable analysts. This is also output at the Access member level
  • The models now do more in-depth analysis of "net new" value creating opportunities available to the company over 5 years
  • Analysis includes consideration of skills, assets and capabilties. This is also output at the Portfolio member level
  • Added a free-tier (accessible to anyone who authenticates via Patreon) that covers 10 "interesting" companies monthly
October 2025
Initial Launch
  • First release of {{ project_name }} company analysis platform
  • Coverage of 100+ companies across AI, biotech, quantum, defense, enterprise and robotics sectors and more
  • Three-tier Patreon structure with varying levels of access
  • Multi-model AI analysis using GPT-5, Claude and Gemini. (Note: in my experimentation, Grok's future-tech outlook is too optimistic, even for me)
  • Downloadable PDFs and CSV growth/risk data at the Portfolio tier
  • Scatter plots to understand relative growth/risk
Development candidates:
  • Additional companies to cover
  • Plots of company growth trends over time
  • Allocation worksheet
  • Let me know what you'd like to see ...

About

The Framework

The Next Arc Research framework is inspired by Emad Mostaque's "The Last Economy" thesis on the transformative impact of AI and exponential technologies. Rather than extrapolating from historical trends, I analyze how companies are positioned to capture value in a world where AI dramatically accelerates innovation, reduces costs, and enables new business models.

The Technology

Each week, AI reasoning models research every company from scratch — pulling from earnings calls, product launches, regulatory filings, and competitive moves. The analysis is scored and structured so you can compare companies and track how their positions change week over week.

The Creator

I've spent 30+ years working and investing in tech. I worked at Netscape, Yahoo!, Google and many startups in Silicon Valley - most recently in AI and LLM technology.

As a retail investor I invested in Bank of America during the 2008 Great Recession, Amazon before they got big and NVIDIA when they still focused on gaming. These investments allowed me to quit regular work and spend some time on Next Arc Research to find the next companies that are going to drive outsized returns in our tech-optimistic future. I resolved that anything I developed would be made available to others.

While I am hopeful for a tech-optimistic future of abundance for all, I also believe that the surest way to guard against being cut out of that future is to own a part of it.

Contact

Please reach out via my Patreon.

Free Resources

Try the analysis for free: